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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/26/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
I don't play any kind of fantasy baseball so don't take this as any kind of useful opinion, but I'd take Bellinger because his game is already in place and there's a lot more to it than just the dingers.
.300/.400/.500
12:44
If you could eliminate one beer style from your rotation for th rest of your life, what would it be? (No cheating by saying “light pale American lagers” or whatever)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
I've dabbled in sours but haven't found much use for them. I'd give up lagers before I'd give up ales, porters, or stouts.
Gastronomy
12:46
Do you have more fun watching funky pitchers like Josh Hader or “cheese with ease” guys like Verlander?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
As a Hall-watcher I've got a special interest in Verlander regardless of what he's throwing, and it's the starters-with-stuff in general that tend to guide my viewing choices.  But it's always worth stopping to check out the wide variety of weird relievers, too.
Tat
12:48
What are your thoughts on CCs chances for HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
They're fading unless he can get back to the point where he's a good bet for six innings or can pitch into his early 40s. Gotta pad those stats to have a chance in the eyes of some voters, and even then, a look at how long it's taking Mussina and Schilling to break through doesn't suggest his chances are high.
CubFan
12:51
Lance Lynn, getting off to a slow/bad start or something more  worrisome? Seems like walks are killing him. I'm always leery of guys switching leagues, especially NL to AL.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I'm leery of leaping to judgment on guys who signed so late, which goes for Cobb as well, not to mention a whole lot of other players given this weird winter/spring — it seems like a lot of those guys are starting slowly ,and I can't blame them. Planning to do a roundup next week.
Louis
12:53
Is Mauer to Hall effectively dead?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Jrp1918
12:54
The A's offense and Manaea no hitter have me really excited about the rest of the season. Unrealistic hope for a wild card ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I wasn't very high on them to start the year but they've certainly got an interesting collection of players. The hot start of the Angels complicates the A's path to a wild card, since you figure the division will probably produce two playoff teams (the Astros being the other)
Mark
12:57
Acuna just homered!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Alas, I missed it while chatting with you, so I guess I'm the sucker. I did write about his debut and what it means for the Braves https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brave-new-acuna-era/

And now I will pause to find a clip of the shot
12:59
Coz
12:59
Of all the writers at Fangraphs, who would be the best at actually playing baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
Not the 48-year-old guy with Hamburger Shoulder, I can assure you of that.
Mike
1:01
Does FanGraphs, or another resource you know of, keep tabs on hitters' strikeouts looking vs. swinging? I'd like to see where Moncada falls in that regard.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
The answer to questions like these is almost always B-Ref, and in this case here you go https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-pitches-batting.sht...

Similarly, I was scratching my head about where to find how often a team had the platoon advantage yesterday and after awhile I figured it out https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2017-situational-batting...
Andy
1:03
Love me some Acuna but damn, could Homer Bailey have put that more on a tee?
kevinthecomic
1:04
They don't call him HOMER Baily for nuthin'
Bob Dobalina
1:04
What's your opinion on Sixpoint?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Once upon a time they were a very cool, trend-setting brewery. Then they stopped producing Righteous Rye (available in cans) and Brownstone (harder to find), and now they are nearly dead to me. Objectively, they've been surpassed by a dozen local breweries at least in terms of buzz-worthy beer, and while their products aren't bad at all, I don't think I'll ever lose the sense that they betrayed me.
John
1:08
Hey Jay, was looking at Ichiro's b-ref page and, if I'm reading it right, he comes under an average hall of famer on the gray ink and hall of fame standards. Am I missing something as to why that would be? His black ink and monitor scores are way above the average...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
I don't think it's worth sweating at this point; Black/Gray Ink is less important (and less meaningful) now that we have so many ways to evaluate careers. And let's not forget that the man didn't debut in the majors until he was 27!
Desperate, confused Marlins fan
1:12
who would you rather have for the next 10 years? Acuña or Ohtani?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Good question. I'd say it's a very tough choice, as reflected by the split in the prospect lists regarding who's #1. I'd give a slight edge to Ohtani just because of the multiple options (pitcher/hitter) and the perception that his ceiling is higher, but Acuña probably has the more solid floor.
Scott
1:13
What older player has helped his HOF the most through one month?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Verlander, I think. His performance thus far suggests he's in for a big year and has found a new lease on life, baseball-wise
Billy
1:14
Tyson Ross is back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
I dearly hope so, but the number of true post-thoracic outlet syndrome surgery successes is small, as I was discussing with a handful of people on Twitter yesterday. Kenny Rogers, Aaron Cook, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, and not much else
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
1:17
Re: Soroka-Sirotka, but you are forgetting that the White Sox jettisoned Sirotka for David Wells in what became "shouldergate." ~10 WAR for basically three-to-five years, then moving him on for David Wells before he "mysteriously" never pitches again? Don't forget Kenny Williams said he was DELIGHTED by that outcome.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Oh, yes. that was a damn mess.
Jarrard
1:18
How much of an impact do you see Melky Cabrera having this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
He's had more success in even-numbered years than odd ones, in part because he never seems to stay healthy for too long, but I'd guess that with the late start, he doesn't have a ton of impact.  WAR in 1-1.5 range, maybe?
CungyMyBungy
1:22
When you look behind the curtain, Didi's tremendous start can be attributed to the ballpark.  Look at his splits and they ain't purty!  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
This year's splits may be driven by Yankee Stadium but here's from what I wrote earlier this month:
And no, that’s not just Yankee Stadium at work; while 29 of his 54 homers during that span came at home, he’s got an 86 wRC+ there (.251/.292/.415) compared to 110 on the road (.300/.335/.448). That split is driven by groundball and flyball rates that are basically reversed (38%/42% at home, 42%/37% away), a 51-point BABIP gap (.265 versus .316) and a substantial strikeout split (15.4% versus 11.8%).
Gary
1:23
Tommy Pham has 9 career WAR in less than two complete seasons of playing time. Where the hell do the Cardinals find these guys?
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