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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
No, but you should be in Toledo. I'm sure Spencer Torkelson kept a fridge stocked somewhere.
Dansby Swansong
12:43
The Mets +50 run differential is the highest in MLB.  Is it sustainable or just a hot streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Their pitching has been great despite the injuries, their offense subpar – and all of that has come against mostly-mediocre competition, as I wrote last Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-mets-have-gone-st...
Dansby Swansong
12:44
On that same HOF note, what would Tommy Edman have to do to reach the hall?  smiling_imp
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Buy tickets like the rest of us. For like $65 you can get a year membership that allows you unlimited visits and a bit of swag!
Jack
12:45
Sorry bout the back - just wrenched my neck in the gym...no fun.
I've been analyzing xFIP data and was wondering if FanGraphs would ever consider putting together a team stat that uses the same data that XFIP does to provide a team offensive production stat? Basically, xFIP-against/game for each team - for projection purposes, I figure this may be a data point many would find interesting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
interesting idea but I never look at xFIP now that we have xERA — which uses K, BB, and statcast inputs.
and for offenses that would be xwOBA
Doc Estes
12:46
Sorry for asking prospect questions  Brain fart
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Getting a lot of prospect and fantasy questions. Neither of those are anywhere close to my wheelhouse so apologies in advance if I bypass yours
Johnny5Alive
12:48
Given his current start, and let's say he finished close to last seasons numbers. If Lindor never played again after this season, is he in the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
That's basically Dustin Pedroia's career minus the championship and MVP award. I wouldn't rule it out but I also think it would be a longshot.
12 to 6
12:49
will smith's career ops is 74 points lower in the second half. he's hammering the ball so far this year - given feduccia and rushing on the cusp, and knowing how the dodgers run smith into the ground during regular season, can we *please* get the fresh prince an "il" blow every once in a while to keep him fresh(er)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I tend to agree. I think once Ohtani is pitching and takes the occasional day off from DHing there will be a lane for Smith to get a bit of DH time and maybe take a look at Rushing, but I think his future as a receiver might lie in another organization.
Ken
12:51
If you could force the sale of any 5 MLB franchises for the betterment of the game, who would they be? A's, Pirates, and?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
A's, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Angels.
12:52
I didn't even have to think very hard to get to 5
I'd add the White Sox and Cubs as well
tyler locklear enjoyer
12:53
at what point do the mariners give up on donovan solano? ive never seen a baseballsavant page so blue
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
They're not going to eat a $3.5 million contract on the basis of 46 PA, particularly when they just lost a 2B (Ryan Bliss) for the season. Not that Solano has played much 2B lately but he's presumably an option
MF Luder
12:55
It seems inevitable that Boston trades Yoshida for a Coke and a smile. Which team(s) do you think will go after him? Seems like an above average lefty bat to me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
They're going to have to eat a huge chunk of the $50-million plus still on the books if they are going to deal a guy who is basically a platoon DH.
12:58
But it does seem inevitable given the crowd the Red Sox have in the outfield. Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and probably eventually Campbell given that they'll have to find a spot for Mayer as well.
MF Luder
12:59
Is Baltimore’s slow start an outlier, or is their offense overrated due to inflated prospect name value?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Their big problem is a dogshit rotation with a 5.62 ERA.
1:01
yes, their young players aren't hitting but i think that's a secondary concern.
Turbo
1:02
What is going on with Julio Rodriguez? BABIP luck seems to be really bad -- Are players picking up on something obvious for him or is he just unfortunate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
He's chasing too much, struggling against sliders, hitting too many grounders and not pulling the ball in the air
Guest
1:04
Eugenio Suarez is the most underrated player in baseball since 2016. Your take?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
I don't think he's the *most* underrated but he's a very solid 3-4 win player who can put together some real hot streaks
Wrote about him yesterday, link near the top.
Max
1:06
Bregman has a real shot at finishing his age 31 season with 45+ fWAR. Assuming he is not going to have anymore 7+ WAR seasons, will likely need a healthy decline phase to make HOF. Roughly what number do you think gets him there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
11 of the 18 HOF 3B have 68 bWAR or higher, with Home Run Baker, Dick Allen, and Jimmy Collins ranging from 53-63 and everybody below that with no business in the Hall. He's at 41.3 by that measure so he's got major work to do.

I don't really see him on a Hall path the way I do Machado, Arenado, and Ramírez.
darrenasu
1:09
Hey Jay...happy Tuesday! So...Wyatt Langford. Do you see anything in his underlying metrics that suggest his current stat line is inflated? Or is this who he is now? A juggernaut at the plate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
he's about 60 points ahead of both his xBA and xSLG so yes, I'd say these numbers are inflated. Still I think you're looking at a kid who could easily post a .350 OBP and .500 SLG as a 23-year-old
glt4dc
1:12
Something I've always wondered, even prior to Suarez's 4HR game - why are there are fewer 4 HRs games than perfect games?  To vastly oversimplify, there are many fewer moving parts necessary for a 4 HR outcome (good swings on 4 fat pitches in 4-6 ABs) than a perfect game (100 nearly perfect pitches, no bad borderline calls by the ump, no fielding miscues).  So why has Suarez's feat been an even rarer occurrence than Halladay et al?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
That's a good question. I suspect a lot of it has something to do with the likelihood of walking a hot hitter, either intentionally or unintentionally
A Lack Bohm
1:15
Re: The pinch hitting question.  Seems to me like there's an intreesting article (or a research piece more like) into looking at the counterfactual situation.  Define a set of 'pinch-hitting situations' (late in the game, batter has a platoon split and/or is a poor hitter, etc.) and see what the wRC+ is for pinch-hitters vs. batters not pinch hit for.  Seems possible that a wRC+ of 78 could be an improvement if you're talking about, say, Brandon Marsh vs. a lefty.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
indeed. Sometimes replacement level performance is a step up
Talfred
1:16
So, if "benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters . . . and they're facing an increasingly higher percentage of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals." maybe they should take a look at the efficacy of continuing to use pinch-hitters like it's 1995.
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