JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/29/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/29/25

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Jay Jaffe

1:18

They're not, because pitchers don't need to be pinch-hit for anymore, but oddly enough, the major league wRC+ for PH, which was 83 in each of the past 2 full seasons, is higher than it was anytime between 2002–18 (the span for which we have detailed splits to do wRC+). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=0&ros...

deGrom

1:19

Have I hit any HOF thresholds in your eyes?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

not until the electorate begins electing starters who are well short of 2,000 innings

Craig

1:20

Jay have you ever thought about doing a poll to see how differently fangraphs readers use the site? Like, what percentage of readers use content for fantasy purposes? How many articles they read? What writers draw the most traffic (I know this could be seen as a popularity contest), if they prefer lists or chats or articles? I think this would be a great read!

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I haven't. I imagine it's something David Appelman has thought about but I also think the traffic numbers probably give us similar insights.

Craig

1:22

Only saying because I see a lot of writers make references to "I don't answer fantasy questions", and I would wager that a majority of readers are here for that very reason, fantasy. Not a knock, just an observation from a long-time reader and subscriber. Thanks for all you do to provide us content!

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I haven't played fantasy baseball in 15 years and it had stopped being fun for me for awhile before that — I'm pretty out of touch with the stuff, so I don't try to tackle those types of questions

Bing Bong

1:23

Szymborski said you were the staff member he'd least like to fight. Is the feeling mutual? If not, with whom amongst your colleagues do least wish to throw hands?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Ha, that's funny. I don't want to fight anyone I work with but I bet Paul Sporer, with his huge advantage in reach and height, would be a particularly difficult matchup

Tacoby Bellsbury

1:25

Given the back issues, who are your all-time favorite players with back struggles?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

never thought about it along those lines but David Wright is certainly one. Bobby Grich — who injured his back carrying an air conditioner IIRC — another. Kershaw, though it hasn't stopped him from a HOF career.

Julio Rodriguez

1:27

Will I ever have a good April? Relatedly, do you buy that some players may be more prone to slower starts than others, or do you think it's mostly just noise?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I pondered that question briefly in last week's pieces on Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. I don't think Julio had enough PA in March/April to make the cut.

I suspect at least some of the slow start stuff has to do with colder weather and the ball carrying less — something we could dig into in Statcast, perhaps — but some of it is probably just noise.

Fredbird

1:29

When will the Cardinals find their next competitive window? Feels like ownership hasn't had a game plan. That magical/random 2022 season seemed to delay the rebuild. Separately, Lin-Manuel Miranda's Molina bros movie ... thoughts? Lol.

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Well, the Cardinals are mid-regime change, with Mozeliak having long overstayed his welcome and Bloom waiting in the wings. As we're seeing with the maturation of a wave of young players in Boston, Bloom has a very good eye for talent, the return on the Mookie Betts trade notwithstanding. So I suspect we're maybe a few years away from the Big Redbird Comeback.

I cracked up when I saw the Miranda/Molina news. I just hope he works my description for extreme lack of speed — "slower than a Molina dragging a Molina with another Molina on his back" — into the script.

Matt VW

1:33

The Rockies aren't in your top 5 "need to be sold"?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Eh, i guess I wasn't counting them as major league.

1:34

But sure, add them to the list. We're now up to at least 8 teams that need to be sold.

Lord Thunder

1:35

Is there any future scenario in which Lance Berkman gets serious HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

He went one-and-done on the 2019 ballot, getting just 1.2% of the vote. Historically it's been nearly impossible for players who suffer that fate even to get onto an era committee ballot. Simmons (the only one elected) and Whitaker are the only ones even to get on a ballot. So no, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Matt

1:37

Does Dick Monafort secretly have the special sauce in ownership? You can just create an excellent affordable ballpark experience and trot out a terrible team. People still come for the experience. Some other teams have that advantage like the Red Sox or Cubs because they have history, but the Rockies seem to have a certain science.

Jay Jaffe

1:38

You're probably onto something there, at least so long as an owner can stomach the ritual humiliation

1:39

Coors Field is one of the best ballparks I've been to. We went there for a FanGraphs staff trip in 2019.

Tim

1:40

are we at the point where we’re a Pavin Smoth slump away from Suarez taking the DH spot and Lawlar is called up to play 3rd? Or do other dominoes need to fall?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I'm not sure what their plan is but Lawler is playing a lot of 2B at Triple-A this year and so I wonder if he's going to bump Ketel Marte back to the outfield once he's healthy

Luke

1:41

Why did Baltimore sit on their hands all off-season? Do they not realize the window is open? Surely they didn't think, after losing Burnes, that they had enough pitching, right? Had plenty of farm juice to get a deal done for a starter. Who's getting fired for this after this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

I'm really not sure what their plan is. Rubenstein was supposed to be more inclined to spend on the team than Angelos but here we are, with none of the blue-chip prospect signed to a long-term extension, the rotation in tatters, Burnes long gone, and the competitive window in danger of closing much earlier than expected.

i can understand Orioles fans being angry!

Guest

1:45

I realize George Springer won't be in the HOF, but he's had a remarkable career and is killing it this year. Is there any other really good players who were known for their postseason performances, but aren't in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:47

Troy Glaus, Lenny Dykstra, Bernie Williams, and Nelson Cruz come to mind, Randy Arozarena someday, Kiké Hernandez of course. Jon Lester, El Duque, Madison Bumgarner, Orel Hershiser, Andy Pettitte and Curt Schilling on the pitching side.

Guest

1:47

Forever mad at the Reds for dumping Suarez to "save money" and then immediately signing Candelario to a more expensive contract to be awful

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Woof tha Candelario signing ha s not worked out

Pete

1:48

Can we get a moment of silence for Paul Skenes and Bobby Witt Jr? Bound to play out careers surrounded with replacement level players and maybe one or two guys who can get to 2-3 WAR seasons here and there. Smh

Jay Jaffe

1:48

The Royals at least made the playoffs last year and could do so again.

1:49

ok folks, that's as much as I can get through for today. Thanks so much for stopping by! We'll do it again soon.

Paul

1:49

Lindor is already at 55fwar to Pedroias 44. With a decent chance of hitting 60 this year. I don't see the comparison.

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