JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:21

Thanks. What surprised me is that Molina, Martin and McCann all look like much closer to borderline guys — closely clustered as well — when we balance what we know about framing with a framing-neutral perspective. In the end I think that the idea that McCann and Martin are Hall of Famers will be too radical for some people to digest, and they're both likely to fall short of 2,000 hits, which will make election nearly impossible anyway.

One thing I'm wondering re: framing is whether anyone can tease a signal out of pre-1988 numbers. For the 1988-2007 period, Baseball Prospectus uses data on called strikes and balls from the pitch count era to estimate framing from before we had f/x and Statcast. What I'd like to know — and I'm sure I'm hardly alone — is whether one could similarly apply the kind of mixed model correlation to staff strikeout and walk data to find out how Reds pitchers fared with/without Johnny Bench, for example.

Maury

1:22

Enjoyed the article on McCann + Martin 's HOF chances w/ the new framing data. I remember in the original article there was slight adjustments made to career WAR for pitchers during that era. Is there going to be an upcoming article on pitchers whose HOF chances are helped/hurt by the new data, or are the effects too diluted to really impact a pitchers career value?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

for a variety of reasons too long for a single chat question, I don't use pitcher fWAR — which has been adjusted to account for framing — in JAWS. I use Baseball-Reference's version of WAR, which has no framing component for catchers (or really, they don't apply the framing component from DRS in their measurements) and thus no need to credit/debit pitchers for their counterparts' framing. I might have to reconsider that stance down the road, but the effect on any pitcher is small, and for the current era's pitchers we're already talking about different standards due to reduced workloads.

Ianetta

1:26

What is your solution to the exponential increase in strikeouts? Lowering the mound or moving it back a few feet?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

1) adjusting the definition of the strike zone. 2) lowering the mound if that doesn't produce enough of an effect.

as noted before, I'm hesitant to mess with the pitching distance. The mechanics are so ingrained that I think all hell will break loose if we start expecting pitchers who have spent their adult lives perfecting the break on a pitch 60'6" away to suddenly have to deal with 62' or whatever.

LFC Mike

1:28

Hi Jay. Thoughts on closer situation in Minnesota and Boston?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Wrote about Boston/Kimbrel here recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-separate-paths-of-craig-kimbrel-and-th...

Regarding the Twins: my thought is go sign Kimbrel. because he's there for the taking and they don't have the CBT threshold to worry about.

Jake

1:31

Hey Jay, hope you're doing well. Would you go over or under on 3 WAR for Yoan Moncada this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Over. The guy put up 2.0 WAR as a 23-year-old, even with the flaws in his game (lack of contact being the major one). It's not hard to imagine growth from that base given how high people were on him not too long ago.

Damian

1:33

Dansby Swanson showing signs of life. Is he back on track after a lost season?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

I haven't seen him yet. The numbers suggest reasons for optimism — he's homered twice and has walked a lot — but I don't a 5-game sample really tells us anything. We wouldn't call this a breakthrough if he had a week like this in June

bosoxforlife

1:35

How far down the roster will teams go in this extension frenzy? Grichuk was a surprise and then David Bote, not even a regular, locks in for 5 years.

Jay Jaffe

1:38

A rising tide lifts all Botes.

Sorry.

I do think this says that the Cubs expect Bote to have a bigger role going forward and it's not hard to imagine that given a combination of factors, including Zobrist being in his final year and Russell being on thin ice. Offhand, I'm not sure a lot of teams are going to be signing their versions of Bote to extensions, but who knows?

Greg

1:38

Is this the year Bellinger becomes a legitimate superstar for the Dodgers? Also, did you offer the handyman a glass of water (or something stronger)?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I expect Bellinger to play closer to the guy we saw in 2017 than in '18, and yeah, that's a star.

No, i did not offer the handyman a glass of water. He didn't stick around long enough.

Lou

1:39

Is your building handyman more like Fred Mertz, Mr Furley, or Schneider from One Day at a Time?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

No.

Matt

1:40

When will the Rays be in a new stadium? I love watching the team, but watching them play in that sterile, dingy dome takes all the joy out of watching their games on TV.

Jay Jaffe

1:40

The year 2525 looks about right.

Slurve

1:40

more impressive...4 HRs in a game or 20 Ks by one pitcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

We've seen far fewer of the latter, and while the conditions for it may be more favorable right now in terms of higher K rates, the risks of pursuing that, pitch-count-wise, are higher as well.

Vogdor Burninate

1:41

What's your feeling about the new catcher framing metrics and the way they skew this new statistical generation vs. all other evaluations of catchers, which, were primarily as hitters? Do you like it? Do you care?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I just published close to 3,000 words on the matter.

Vogdor Burninate

1:42

Jeff Mathis has the 23rd best defensive catcher value ever. He also has a total of 6 WAR. Thoughts? Brad Ausmus and Ryan Hanigan also on this list of extreme glove first guys.

Jay Jaffe

1:42

All the pitch framing metrics in the world won't make Jeff Mathis into a competent hitter, but they do help to explain why he has a major league job.

Dylan

1:42

How is Rosenthal's WAR at 0.0 when there are several pitchers, including relievers, who are in the negatives?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

How is anybody worried about calculating WAR on April 4?

You're going to see some anomalies at this stage given small samples. Don't sweat it.

Archimedes

1:44

What does Miggy need to do to make sure he gets in the HOF? Does he need to have another good WAR season? Or is the Pujols method of just "put up counting stats" each season good enough?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I think he's capable of more than Pujols at this stage but really, the resumé is full enough for Cooperstown.

Missing Dinger

1:45

Rockies offense is really struggling, something like 3 runs scored in their last 40 innings. What needs to change?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

they need to stop hitting .197/.245/.283 as a team. I'm pretty sure they can manage that, and that Arenado and Blackmon and Murphy aren't going to slug .321 or worse. I'm not a big believer that playing Ian Desmond every day is a good idea.

Ben

1:48

Why are all of the Yankees getting hurt? Most players on the IL (or DL) ever?

Jay Jaffe

1:49

I can't believe Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman have instituted a mandatory knife fight before each game. That seems counterproductive.

Injuries happen, and when it rains, it pours. I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to what's going on, and I'm pretty sure it's not a record.

1:49

Could the slightly odd David bote extension be a signal that the Cubs think that the universal DH is coming?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

U-DH won't come until the next CBA at the earliest, after the 2021 season. Seems a bit early to be planning for that like this.

Jay Jaffe fan

1:50

Can a case be made for Tony Fernandez as a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

not a credible one.

Jkim

1:50

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT: It seems to me that JOe Kelly's problem seems to be his inability to locate the high fastball and low curveball combo that allured the Dodgers to sign him

I found Joe Kelly's problem
The first two are his heatmap & pitch type & location from the postseason when he was really really good. Mostly high fastballs in the corner and low curveballs down & away.

@dodgers_randi @jay_jaffe @ChadMoriyama

Jay Jaffe

1:51

Saw this on Twitter the other night. Makes some sence

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