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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/14/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I've already conceded that the pitch-framing data at FG and BP does enough to bolster Molina's case where a simple off-the-shelf JAWS comparison makes him look light. But if we're going to lean on that for Molina we should be taking a long look not only at Buster Posey but also Russell Martin and Brian McCann.
wheelhouse
2:50
does the bat speed data affect your opinion on stanton's outlook throughout the duration of his contract at all, or is it nearly meaningless without knowing long-term year-to-year trend on it? does him being so far above the field mean he has room to adjust and still be productive, or is he just too late into his career for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
that's a good question. My first read of the data is that Stanton is such an outlier that it's absurd he doesn't do more to temper his approach in an attempt to trim his K rate and boost his batting average and on-base percentage. .230/.283/.452 from a DH doesn't have much value
WinTwin0410
2:53
Jay, I usually ask about the Hall of Fame, but I’d like to shake it up a bit here and ask you who in baseball history have been your favorite bit player or playersIE, a guy who did something unusual (hero in one game or for a short time, for example, or perhaps got started super late) but otherwise was not at all distinguished?  (Random examples: Mickey Hatcher, Tom Lawless, Jim Morris, Billy Taylor, Rudy Pemberton, Todd Haney, John Paciorek, etc.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Oh, Mickey Hatcher is a favorite on that level. My first time listening to Vin Scully coincided with Hatcher's first major league home run on Agusust 10, 1979, which helped to back Don Sutton's 50th career shutout, and then of course he came up huge in the 1988 World Series for the Dodgers as well.

As the name of my original blog (b. 2001) attests, I have a soft spot for futility infielders, with Luis Sojo, Lenn Sakata, and Melvin Mora coming to mind. Also the truly craptacular catcher, Tony Suck. I could go on...
A Jolly Good Oberkfellow
2:59
Did you get to read the Stark and Rosenthal article about how to save the starting pitcher on the Athletic? Are you interested in any of those proposals, or have any of your own?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Haven't read it yet but my wife edited it, and we discussed the gist of it briefly (it's here https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5484428/2024/05/14/mlb-starting-pitch...). It's on today's reading list.
mmddyyyy
3:00
How many times each year do you see the end of a game on the west coast?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
More than I should given how often I have to get up before 7 AM, but this is where the pitch clock has been a lifesaver.
RoyalsFan2195
3:01
The A's look like a half competent team this season, so when will they stop running Seth Brown out there for paltry AB's? K% has ballooned over 30%, Barrel % is down 4%.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I think they're playing him in the hopes that he comes out of it and gives them a potential trade chip, but two years of sub-replacement level work won't do much for that.
Victoria
3:02
"Is it a mania? I don't think it's had anywhere near the cultural impact of Fernandomania, which tapped into the Los Angeles Dodgers' original sin of building their ballpark at Chavez Ravine"

Tom Ricketts needs to do something terrible to make people pay attention to Shota
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Tom Ricketts has done some terrible stuff, but none of it has drawn attention to Shota, alas.

Re-reading what I wrote I realize it was something of an incomplete thought. Given a second swing, I think a better way to put it would be to say that Fernandomania  "tapped into a large but latent audience of Latino and particularly Mexican and Mexican-American fans that had reasons to ignore or loathe the Dodgers in the wake of their original sin of building their ballpark at Chavez Ravine..." etc.
The person who asks the lunch question
3:05
what's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Leftover chicken schnitzel and Israeli salad, the originals of which were what we made for Mother's Day on Sunday
André René Roussimoff
3:06
The running game has returned to baseball but the pitchout hasn't come back. During the '80s, there were even back-to-back pitchouts sometimes! Is it just considered an inefficient play by today's teams? Thanks, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
That's a good question and I don't really know the answer. I suspect it has something to do with higher velo and higher strikeout rates; why waste a near-automatic ball when you have a better chance of neutralizing the baserunner by striking out the hitter? Just spitballing...
Jeremy
3:09
Zack Wheeler just too late a bloomer to have a real shot at the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
That's part of his problem; he's a pitcher who had just 2.0 bWAR in fewer than 400 innings through his age-27 season. The other part of it is that even at age 34, he's only banked one season of 5.0 bWAR or better, and only three of 4.0 WAR or better. You could maybe put an asterisk next to his 2.8-WAR 2020 and count it in that group, but it's not enough to make him a serious candidate right now.
Jack Flaherty
3:14
Next player to be traded away in Miami?  Jazz?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Jazz or Jesus Luzardo, if they convince another team his medicals are OK
mmddyyyy
3:15
At what altitude does altitude matter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Worth checking out Statcast's Park Factors page. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=.... It looks to me like anything over 1,000 feet above sea level adds more than 2 feet of carry on a pulled fly ball, and anything under 100 feet above sea level subtracts at least two feet.
John
3:17
Any chance we ever get a return of the Fangraphs podcast? I miss it dearly
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I do too; behind the scenes, we've had some chatter about reviving it, but so far not enough to overcome the inertia of not having it.
Idiotic Failson
3:19
No question, just a comment - when people talk about prospects struggling I think about those Pitching Ninja videos where people are throwing curveballs that break 5 feet and follow it with a 95mph painted fastball and wonder how anyone ever hits a baseball.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
baseball is difficult! hitting a baseball is ridiculously hard, and statistically not getting any easier (note the MLB-wide batting average of .240 is the lowest it's been since 1968).
Steve from Tampa
3:22
Is it time to worry about Gleyber Torres?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Yeah. He belongs on the side of a milk carton
Dirty Dan McGrew
3:24
which prospect were you really high on only to see struggle in the majors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
Well, I picked Wyatt Langford as my AL Rookie of the Year and so far that's been, uh, not great. Last year I had Volpe in the AL and Corbin Carroll in the NL, the year before that Julio Rodríguez and Seiya Suzuki, and in 2021 I had Randy Arozarena and Ian Anderson; with Yamamoto my pick in the NL this year i might wind up with four years in a ro of picking one Rookie of the Year correctly
Jack
3:32
What is wrong with Gausman? He looks more droppable than a supposed top of the rotation starter. Is it injury related?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
There's a lot not going right for the Blue Jays, and Gausman is just one problem — but one I'm going to add to my check-in list for a possible future article
Colton
3:33
Mentioned this in Ben's chat yesterday but I'd like your take on it as well. Apparently all the Cardinals players fully support Marmol and the coaching staffs strategies and approaches according to Katie Woo. But after 200+ games of terrible results, that has to change at some point, right? Like they have to stop beating a dead horse and start questioning something soon
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Yes, and IMO it may change if DeWitt starts thinking about Mozeliak's neck.
Alan
3:34
Speaking of the Cards and the HOF, Goldschmidt has seemed to be on a Hall trajectory for a bit, and a few more good seasons would lock him in. But this year he has fallen off a cliff. If this persists, how much does it affect his chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I took a quick look at Goldschmidt a couple weeks ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/paul-goldschmidt-and-the-crowd-below-repla...) and he's actually lost five points of wRC+. I don't think what he's going through is anything that some adjustments can't overcome, but I do wonder if he needs a change of scenery to have a better chance of pulling them off. The Cardinals are sinking fast and being in the position of a struggling veteran playing for his next contract seems like a recipe for pressing rather than fixing what ails.
THe GUy WHo MAKEs TRADEs
3:36
Give me a reason for a Marlins fan to be optimistic (If there is one)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Someday later in this century, global warming will raise the sea level enough to wash away Miami, in which case the Marlins and their sordid history will no longer be a focal point of baseball discussions.
MikeD
3:38
Don't the comparisons for players like Martin and McCann fall apart since it's not a consistent compare across history? That was my "fear" when Fangraphs implemented pitch framing. They're simply getting an uplift on WAR that most catchers throughout history don't.
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