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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Yes but if I'm going to do it it's going to be in a 2,000 word piece!
Betts has the highest JAWS of that group, and is only 29, so put him first
2:55
and Machado probably second since he is apparently on his way to a big year
Devos
2:56
who's today's harold baines totally forgettable player, never a top 5 guy who will be in the hall. do i tell my kids they're lucky to be watching paul goldschmidt
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Goldschmidt already has a better case for the Hall than Baines. He's 25th in JAWS at 1B and has a 7-year peak of 42.2, 0.1 ahead of the Hall standard. The heaviest lifting is done.

The Baines equivalent would be Justin Upton. Both 1/1 picks, stars early, then injuries; but we'll have to see if Upton gets off the mat after being cut and gives his career totals some padding. I don't see Cooperstown in his future.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:59
(Very early returns) has Mookie on pace for nearly a 7 WAR season. Is he firmly on a HOF trajectory, or does he need 3 or 4 more All Star seasons to get there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
He's in great shape
Wild Thing
3:01
Is Matt Brash destined to be a reliver at this point? The stuff is sooo good, but seems like he has 0 clue where it is going.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Eric Longenhagen just wrote about him in Seattle's Top Prospects list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-mariners-top-31-prospects-2022/
3:02
"Brash will probably be deployed in a high-leverage, multi-inning relief role in the short-term. That gives him the best shot to a) help the big league club right now, b) do so while mitigating some of the impact of his wildness, and c) retain enough of an innings foundation that he can move back into the rotation if/when he polishes up his command. Brash pitched 100 innings last season. If we were anticipating a typical year-to-year increase, that would have put him in position to work 120-130 innings as a starter this year... If Brash works multiple innings in relief, he could still hover around the 100-inning mark throughout the season and be in a better position for a move back into the rotation than some of the guys who were yo-yo’d..."
3:03
there's more to what Eric wrote that's worth reading. I'll only add that his having 3 pitches that grade out as plus or better means he'll get multiple chances at starting before they finally give up and make him a reliever long term
3:06
Hey, New Yorkers, it occurs to me halfway through this chat that I have 3 tickets to the Brooklyn Cyclones to unload tonight. Weather's kinda iffy but if you think you can use them, shoot me a message here and we'll work something out after the chat
Adam123566
3:07
Hey Jay. Is Manaea a good replacement for Scherzer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
He ain't Scherzer but he's a very good pitcher, so assuming you are talking about a fantasy context, that's a good way to go
Mike Trout
3:08
What do you think the over/under on my final career WAR will be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
my head spins at the thought. Wild-ass guess let's say 140
Devos
3:10
I'm a radio nerd and listen to a lot of different broadcasts and it seems like there is a universal broadcaster sentiment that all of this (gestures at everything) is because hitters don't have the right approach, hit for contact, yada yada. But sadly  it seems like they're getting this perspective from the industry. And meanwhile pitchers keep throwing harder. Are we just headed for 30% strikeout rate game play implosion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I think the changes in the pipeline — from roster limits on pitchers to the coming pitch clock, some regulation of infield shifts, and eventually robot umps — are going to alter the batter/pitcher balance before we get to that point.

On a side note, it is frustrating as hell to hear that kind of sentiment voiced. If it's so goddamn easy to go the other way, grab a bat and hit this lab-created high-velo, high-spin offering yourself, big boy!
Hongo
3:14
If Cody Bellinger keeps hitting like this, should the Dodgers just let? him walk at the end of the season? Or, in the current, weak-hitting environment, is he still a valuable center fielder?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
the slash line is ugly but he's got a 100wRC+ and is an above-average defender in center field. Also he's got one more year of club control before free agency. So I don't see the Dodgers giving up on him that easily.
Krusty
3:17
HOF-related question: do you think it makes sense to use RE24 in place of Batting Runs to add further context for WAR (or for seasonal awards)?  

Wishing your 5 1/2 year old a speedy recovery!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
WAR is designed to be a context-neutral stat, whereas RE24 is a context-dependent one. I'm glad we have both, because they help us to answer different questions, and it's worth consulting both kinds of metrics (including multiple flavors of WAR and WPA-type measures) when thinking about awards
3:20
I think this Dave Cameron piece on the context-neutral/context-dependent divide is worth reading https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-war-in-context-a-response-to-bill-...
Pat
3:21
I would think the answer to the "front office" question is Detroit. Been 7 years for Avila now, still struggling mightily, they've graduated 4 of the big 5 prospects & only Skubal is really succeeding..& not much hitting in the minors.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
I'd give it time on the pitchers but you're right, the Tigers belong in this discussion
Fart
3:22
Do you think the Dodger's re-sign/extend Trea?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Yes, I believe that they will
zoopy
3:23
Who's lineup is underrated that isn't yet showing up in the runs column?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Looking at the BaseRuns version of our Projected Standings (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns) suggests that it's the Marlins, who "should" be averaging 4.56 runs per game but are only scoring 4.27 per game, with the Braves having a .21 gap as well. The Marlins are certainly easy to underrate because of their history, and I almost never write about them because it feels like punting into the void, but they've got some talent
Tom
3:26
HOFers on St. Louis Cardinals, over/under, 3.5?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Pujols a lock, Molina very likely, Arenado and Goldschmidt in good shape but not lock territory... I think I'd probably take the over
3:29
that sneaky-good Andrew Knizner case...
Some Guy
3:30
Why has Cleveland's rotation been so... meh to start the season? We're so used to it being the opposite, with our hitters being awful and our pitching been good.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
Good question. I don't have a ready answer but they're 20th in the majors in strikeout rate (21.6%) and K-BB% (13.0%) where they were 2nd and 1st in those two categories two years ago.
Might be a topic for a future piece
Guest
3:32
Do you think playing in a cold weather city during early spring and fall makes a sizeable impact on a player's career counting stats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
Pretty small, because you're only home half the time and because players do move around the league.
Guest
3:33
How much does a team value leadership and clubhouse presence when evaluating a free agent or extension candidate? Thinking about Xander here. He's the longest tenured player and the backbone of 2 championships, the players all love him and fans love him, but of course X sees himself differently than the FO sees him. Does the FO owe him a "loyalty"/leadership bonus, in other words.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
There are all kinds of intangibles that get factored in when a team is considering a long-term deal, beyond the simple math that we can trace via WAR, dollars, and years. I think the gap between the Judge projections and the Yankees' offer (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-bypasses-yankees-extension-off...) is a good illustration of the effect. I wouldn't say that a FO "owes" anybody a loyalty/leadership bonus, but I would say that a player's team might have more reason to overvalue that player's performance and presence than another team would.
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