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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/22
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Guest
3:37
If for some reason Ohtani doesn't make it to ten years of service time (let's hope not though, obviously!) would MLB make an exception for him to be able to get into the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
This is and has always been the Hall's rule, not MLB's rule. They only deviated from it in the case of Addie Joss' premature death, and it took over 40 years from the institution's inception for that to happen. Barring the most unfortunate circumstances I don't see a similar decision for Ohtani
Jeremy Pena
3:39
Am I.... a top 5 SS in MLB right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
I'd be hesitant to say top 5 on the basis of 33 games (and the competition's 30-some games), but I think he could well be among the top 10.
Nate
3:43
It seems the Astros have somewhat of a refusal to handout any kind of extension/FA deal of longer than 5 years...even though they've shown a willingness to field big payrolls/AAV's up into the mid 30 range. I get that Pena looks incredible, but when it comes to people like Correa and Kyle Tucker more recently...is that as just unbelievably negligent as it sounds? I can understand not wanting to go to 10-12 years or even 300 +...but it's just mind boggling as a fan to watch Correa walk, and potentially Tucker down the line over it...can you seriously not project those guys to be good on at least 7-8 year deals into their mid 30s?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
I wouldn't give up on the Tucker extension yet. As for Correa... I do wonder if letting him walk was in part an effort to distance the team from its sign-stealing. We've see the reports about Altuve (who is signed long-term, though that term is nearing its end) not wanting to use the trashcan  system whereas Correa used it more.
G Kirby
3:45
Re: the Bellinger question.  His arb rate for his final season will be well over $20MM.  You're saying you're good signing him up for say 1 more year at $22MM vs. letting him become a FA a year early?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
I'm saying that the Dodgers aren't going to sweat that kind of money, particularly now that it looks like they're getting salary relief on Bauer.
WAR
3:46
Let's say Trout precisely equals Willie's WAR. Would that make him better because athletes are better, or worse because Willie fought/missed years and also dealt with being Black in that time? Or the same? Because to me, Willie is the bar.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:49
it's very tough to say definitively, but I lean towards the latter. Trout is facing a much higher level of competition. Willie was a 10-WAR player annually for  a long stretch because the league still had a lot of stiffs who would have been replaced if integration happened more quickly and evenly.
3:50
ok folks, it's time for me to roll, thanks so much for stopping by! No chat from me next week as I've got my [redacted]-year college reunion. Stay safe and dry!
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