JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/20/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/20/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:49

Even if the likes of Albies and Riley can't reach their previous heights, what the Braves have done with their largely homegrown core over the past several seasons has been mighty impressive and I'm not about to shut the door on them continuing to be successful.

War2d2

12:50

Hey Jay! What do the various teams that need closers (or even functional middle relief) do at this point? Phillies and Cubs come immediately to mind. Last season it was obvious that someone was going to win the Tanner Scott lottery, but a similar trade doesn’t really pop out at me this season.

Jay Jaffe

12:50

Get ready for the excitement of the Kyle Finnegan lottery!

12:51

I expect Kenley Jansen to be available, maybe even Aroldis Chapman if the Red Sox continue to scuffle. And then some teams may realize that their next closer might be on their current roster and is just one tweak of a pitch grip away from dominating.

nate

12:51

I saw a mock trade proposal with Skenes to the braves in exchange for Baldwin, Smith-Shawver, Caminiti and alveraz. Disregarding the plausibility, which side would come on top

Jay Jaffe

12:52

I don't think anybody should be trading for the late Ken Caminiti right now.

Laura

12:52

Alcantara,hold or drop? Sure do miss living in Prospect Park.

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Might be time to drop him as the results have not improved in the least.

12:53

If you had a $700MM contract, wouldn’t you hustle every time you hit the ball?!!

Jay Jaffe

12:54

If I had a $700 million contract i'd want to make sure that I am as healthy as possible for as long as possible knowing that I'll still be playing while these old white shit-stirrers are half-forgotten.

Jonah

12:54

Does "feeling like a Hall-of-Famer" factor at all into your HOF evaluation or voting? And when fans or writers say someone "feels like a Hall-of-famer" (or doesn't), how much of that is because of on-field play vs. things like demeanor, off-field stuff, and even looks? Thinking about two sabermetric darlings who have had major Hall debates recently in Bobby Abreu and Scott Rolen, both of whom Phillies fans of that era frequently say "didn't feel like Hall-of-famers" despite metrics that seem to back up a case for induction.

Jay Jaffe

12:55

It's a small part in my evaluations. I'd like to think that the work I've done with JAWS has illustrated that sometimes greatness is hiding in plain sight, as not everything that gives a player value shows up in the antiquated box scores we grew up reading.

12:57

Thus there are under-recognized great players who may not have always gotten their due in their day. We can understand why Chase Utley's lack of Gold Gloves might have an impact on how voters receive him, while also knowing and conveying that defensive metrics show he was elite and helped make him a great player.

RandoDude

12:58

With Oscar Gonzales getting released by the Padres and going to the NPB, how does that work? Are NPB scouts tampering by sniffing around?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Gonzalez was in the minors when he was released — a request the Padres granted so he could head to Japan. I'm not sure if it's in the uniform player contract or if it's specifically part of some minor league deals, but many contracts do have outs — if you're not on the major league roster at a certain date you can elect free agency — or upward mobility clauses. Gonzalez's agent may have had previous contact with an NPB team, and with him in the minors, I'm guessing he would have been allowed to discuss upgrading his circumstances.

1:03

Any thoughts on whether Eddie Cicotte might eventually be on a ballot? Or any of the other “black Sox”

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Doubt it. Nobody has let popular culture pull the wool over their eyes regarding Cicotte's participation in the scheme the way they have Jackson's. Like Jackson, he took the gamblers' money. Full stop, that should be disqualifying.

HOF

1:05

Personally I care less about keeping Rose out now that he can't profit from it and hear the cheers. Emotionally those are the things that bother me. But I know your own feelings and he was an awful person so I'd still rather him stay out

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I understand that point of view, and it serves to remind us that Pete Rose didn't win by being reinstated. He still lost — income and adulation and the cheers he would have received — and he earned that loss big time.

1:07

here's my piece on the Twins' turnaround: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-have-turned-things-around/

War2d2

1:07

re:coaches, that Don Zimmer isn’t in the Hall just for being Don Zimmer is a tragedy.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

He's in the Hall of Famous For Having a Plate in His Head

Pudge

1:08

I really, really want Mike Elias to play a game of Catan at some point to learn a thing or two about basic resource allocation. You can't win the game with just sheep! You need to acquire some ore at some point! It doesn't matter how amazing your sheep pipeline is! And the ore he does acquire is Cole Irvin, Trevor Rodgers, Kyle Gibson, ....

Jay Jaffe

1:10

And I really want people to think about all of the hot air David Rubenstein spewed about spending big in Baltimore when he first bought the team versus the reality that he's a big voice in beating the drum for a salary cap. The owner sets the budget, and the GM/POBO spends the money. The latter may spend it ways that don't pan out, but I'm not ready to believe (as some have suggested) that Elias was telling Rubenstein not to spend on pitching.

Guest

1:10

how do i access bullpen data?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

For leagues, teams, or players, choose "as RP" in the Positional Split drop-down menu: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&t...

Jim

1:11

With Alvarado out for 80 games and the postseason, Phillies fans have resumed their clamoring for an impact reliever like Mason Miller. Isn't it better to churn through AAA arms and try to hit a lottery ticket for six weeks (NOT Andrew Painter) than to mortgage actual prospect capital for a not-sure thing?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

the Phillies have time to do both, to check out their in-house options and to make an impact move at the deadline, whether for Miller or someone else. Yes, Miller will take real capital to acquire, but he's got 3 years of club control after this so it's not just a fleeting acquisition.

Boog

1:13

Is now the time for an Adley or Gunnar extension, to signal to the team and the fans that the window is not closing for the O's just yet?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

it certainly wouldn't hurt matters but it's rare to see extensions signed in-season and right now, I am not sure either of those players is looking around and thinking, "Sign me up for 10 more years of this"

Jake

1:15

In light of Devers refusal to play a different position, do you think part of Javy Baez's recent renaissance could be due to a position change? Or something different?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Let's be clear about Devers: what the Red Sox were asking — for a player who didn't get any reps in the field during spring training as he rehabbed his shoulders, and whom the team bumped to a DH role by signing another free agent — to learn a brand new position on the fly in mid-season — was unreasonable.

1:20

yes, you'd like every player to be gung-ho about embracing a challenge but not everyone is wired the same way.

As for Báez, I saw it suggested somewhere that the opportunity to play for a good team after a few years of doing so for a bad one may have provided some motivation, but he's been a versatile player since reaching the majors, and his worst seasons were the ones he was playing only shortstop.

PPI

1:21

Now that we've had a couple years of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, what are your thoughts? Do we need to solve the problem of teams calling up prospects early but then sending them down quickly if they don't hit the ground running to avoid the player earning a full year of service time?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

The PPI seems OK to me. I don't see a problem if a team calls up a prospect but then sends him down if he doesn't perform, as it's perfectly acceptable to take into account competitive concerns when it comes to player promotion.

Ross

1:24

What do you make of Julio? He is striking out less and walking more, but we are now 4 years of trending down wRC+ at 148, 128, 116, and 112 (small sample for that last one obviously)? He is still a top 30 player in baseball, but he feels like such a disappointment compared to expectations. Do you think he ever ascends to perennial top 10 player or are there too many holes in his game for that level of consistency?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

There's so much talent there and he's still just 24. I see the diminishing returns and understand the frustration, but I'm not at all ready to count him out.

Larry

1:26

What do you think is going on with Matt McLean? He has been terrible at the plate so far this year. Do you think he will bounce back and at what point does playing time become a risk?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

missing a full year due to injury can take a long time to overcome. Right now McLain is making good contact, but he's striking out almost 33% of the time, a big spike particularly given that he's swinging less and chasing less than 2023. To me this suggests rust may be his biggest problem, and if it's a shoulder injury he's returning from, there maybe physical or psychological reasons why he doesn't quite trust it yet.

Something I found out

1:30

Looking up something to see how rare it would be if Judge ended up with .330/50 hr, and there's never been a season with 50 hr between Bonds 01 (.328) and a Foxx season at .349. But anyway if he can manage .330 50 it'll be the first time since Mantle 56

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