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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Very interesting note!
Fall Classic
1:31
Would 400 career home runs get Kyle Schwarber into the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
No, and I don't even think I could support him going in with 500. Between terrible defense and a DH-only path going forward he's not going to end up with anywhere close to David Ortiz's 55 career bWAR (he's at 17 and is in his age-32 season).
Ollie North
1:33
Alcantara is wearing a (blank) uniform on September 1
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
Marlins. He's signed through next year, with an option for 2027, and there's no reason to trade him while his value is so depressed.
Leland
1:36
Hi Jay! What do the Giants do with Jordan Hicks? He pitched his way out of the rotation, and has not had success thus far in the bullpen despite how hard he throws. He's owed a ton of money. No easy choices!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
I don't think it's worth scrapping the entire experiment just yet because the stuff is there; the fastball grades out low via PitchingBot and Stuff+ but the sinker, slider and (so far rarely-used) splitter all grade well. If I'm the Giants I'm trying to make tweaks to get him back to being a member of the rotation instead of just another bullpen arm.
Paulie_Eff
1:39
Yordan Alvarez' hand = Kyle Tucker's shin?  What to make of this Astro's IL shenanigans?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:40
Shenanigans? Everything I've read about Alvarez says he's not ready to swing at full strength yet. I'm sure they want him back
Guest
1:40
Hi Jay! New to your content. My son plays for the Canadians. I was looking for statcast type data, which I understand I can't get at the high A level. Looking at your page, you have have some very good data I'm in the process of checking out! Your X profile is locked but I did just follow you.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
Thanks for the kind words but a) it's not MY data, it's the data of my employer; and b) there's no point in following me on Xitter as I don't post there anymore. Follow me on Bluesky at @jayjaffe.bsky.social instead.
War2d2
1:43
Followup about potential closers: you said teams might realize their next closer is already on the team. That made me think of Ben Brown on the Cubs—he’s a 2-pitch FA/KC pitcher that mostly gets by (to the extent that he even does) on elite velo for a starter. I feel like his best place in the pen where he can just grip it and rip it. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
That certainly fits the reliever profile, and odds are that it's his eventual fate, but I don't think it's necessary to give up on him as a starter yet.
Don Camillo
1:45
Kenny Lofton highest CF JAWS not in the Hall, and never really contended on the ballot.  Is he going in this year Eras?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:48
he may not even get on the ballot given the crowd of players that did get substantial support on BBWAA ballots — Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent, Sheffield. Electorally speaking, there's almost no future for a player who went one-and-done on the writers' ballot; the Historical Overview Committees have resisted putting such players on ballots (Simmons is the only one to do it twice — and the only one elected — and he had a vocal proponent on the committee).
But no, i don't expect Lofton to be elected anytime soon
1:49
Ok folks, that's it from me for today! thanks so much for stopping by, and do check out that SABR Zoom thing tomorrow if you can't get enough of the Rose/Jackson discussion (sorry, had to pass on a good but lengthy q here because it would take so much time to do justice).
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