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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon folks. I'm in a brief delay here as I get today's piece, on the Indians' failing offense, off my plate. Back in about 15 minutes.
12:08
OK folks, I'm back. Couldn't quite beat the clock...
JD Drew Barrymore
12:08
Is the Indians offense really failing? D- maybe? What’s the key to a turnaround? JRam getting right probably would go a long way on its own
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
The Indians have the largest wRC+ fall-off from last year to this one 26 points (104 to 78); they're scoring 1.13 fewer runs per game. Jose Ramirez's slump has been brutal, but their failure to secure some production from their corner outfielders — which was quite apparent all winter — has really bit them har as well. Note that they've withstood the losses of Kluber and Clevinger reasonably well; it's the offense that's let them down.
stever20
12:10
How much longer will the Nats give Dave Martinez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I honestly don't know, but yikes, those vultures must be getting tired of circling. I wouldn't be surprised if his number comes up by the end of this month; if they get embarrassed by the Marlins in this upcoming four-game series, as the Mets did with their three-gamer, that could be all she wrote.
JD Drew Barrymore
12:13
What’s been your favorite unexpected great performance this season to date?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Two that stand out: Cody Bellinger turning into an MVP candidate in the NL, and Joey Gallo hitting for average while retaining his power in the AL. I'd also add Hyun-Jin Ryu turning into an ace, and Domingo German pitching quite well for the Yankees.
John
12:16
Hey Jay, I was looking at Baders 12 BB% and was wondering how much hitting in front of the pitcher adds to the %?   Also, when does the walk rate start to stabilize for the year?  Isn't it around 140 PA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
For stabilization, I've seen estimates of both 120 PA and 200 PA, but yes, hitting in front of the pitcher does have an impact on walk rates, though I don't have an easy way to isolate the effect. Last year's number eight hitters in the NL walked at an 8.6% clip, just 0.1% below the overall league average — we probably wouldn't expect that given the quality of hitter in that spot.
12:21
Bader has walked 10.3% of the time as a #8, 7.3% elsewhere in the lineup.
Moltar
12:21
So once GM Brodie flames out, do you think there's any chance MLB will either appoint or convince ownership to hire a true President of Baseball Operations? I know that they'll never force the Wilpons to sell, but they must recognize that there needs to be a baseball person with authority over Jeff Wilpon for this franchise to ever realize its potential.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
LOL, no. It's very clear that MLB will continue to take a hands-off approach to the Mets ownership. Precedent says that the threshold for the league meddling in ownership issues is pretty high; baseball ops dysfunction isn't something they're going to touch, only the type of financial mess that prevents the team's ability to remain solvent, à la the McCourt-era Dodgers.
Voldemort
12:23
Do you see Gleyber Torres as a future superstar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Yes. I said this recently but people seem to forget he's doing what he's doing (135 wRC+, 1.6 WAR compared to 1.9 all of last season) at age 22 while playing a more difficult position. Beyond the stats, he's got incredible poise, which gears him well for success in the Big Apple spotlight
Voldemort
12:26
What's going on with Trevor Bauer? He went from cy young contender to poop
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
I don't exactly know, but I see that his walk rate and fly ball rate are both up considerably relative to last year, as is his HR/FB. He's backed off his breaking ball usage considerably (rom about 40% to 28%) and is getting fewer chases while allowing more hard-hit balls; his average exit velo is up from 87 to 90.5. He merits a closer look.
FIP/Fwar
12:30
Jay, do you think FanGraphs puts too much emphasis on K/BB in measuring pitchers? I have a hard time believing that Scherzer has been 0.6 WAR better than every other pitcher in baseball this year, even when you think of it in terms of "this is what it should have been accounting for other factors".
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Voldemort
12:34
Thoughts on Hiura? Do you think he'll lock down the 2B job? It seems to me like he either hits the ball well or strikes out. That K rate he supposedly cut down is back.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I wrote about Hiura briefly for today's ESPN Insider/Plus piece ($) http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26802765/prospects-ready-he.... I think he can certainly help the team but it's not clear yet how much rope Shaw has to reclaim his job, or what kind of shape his wrist is really in, though his slump and his lack of production appear to be related. His13-to-1 K/BB ratio thus far is alarming, but I'd give him some time to adjust before panicking.
Cameron
12:37
Should Gio Urshella be in the All Star Game as of right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
It would be pretty lonely if he were to show up tin Cleveland today, since none of the other All-Stars will be there until July 7.

More seriously, Urshela is having a nice, out-of-nowhere season in about 2/3 of the playing time that guys like Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and even Hunter Dozier have had, so I'd have a tough time putting him in the top three, which would more or less be the cutoff for the number of 3B who get to go. Let's see where things sit in a month.
j0seph
12:42
Pick one: beer or baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I reject the premise, as there's no earthly reason to pick just one.
Cameron Kear
12:42
Do you think the AL Central is the Twins division to win?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Our playoff odds give them an 80% shot at the division, to 20% for the Indians, so I'd say they're in the drivers' seat.
Hypocrite Buster
12:43
Why aren't you read Fangraphs excoriating the Dodgers for not dropping Urias like you did for the Cubs. Video evidence isn't enough or is the politics?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
As somebody who had high hopes for Urias, this is *very* disappointing, and it makes me queasy to think of how the estimations of his present and future talent could play into his handling.

But having said that, the level of severity in the Russell and Urias matters appears to differ quite greatly — there's a long litany of allegations of ongoing abuse from Russell's ex — and both Russell and the Cubs have said some dubious things both while the investigation was going on and since his suspension. The Urias situation has yet to play out in full, but the fact that he has been reinstated from administrative leave suggests that it was a far more minor matter, and that discipline, if any, will be much lighter. Neither he nor the Dodgers have commented on the matter to any great substance other than to indicate that they're letting the process play out. That's not to excuse what he's done, but let's see how this unfolds before attempting to make a full comparison of the two cases.
JoeyBoomBats
12:51
Sure seems like Dansby Swanson is "putting it all together" doesn't it? Scouts 1, Analytics Guys 0.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Good lord, your urge for self-gratification is intense enough that you should lock yourself in the bedroom and maybe put a sock on the door.

I don't recall any major contrast between the scouting and analytic communities when it came to Swanson; he was a top five prospect here, just as he was at Baseball America. The stats say he stunk last year (and the year before) and doesn't this year. One could say the same thing about many players.
Xolo
12:54
If the Nats really fall off and decide to trade Scherzer and/or Strasburg, how are they going to handle their weird contracts? Is there even a precedence for them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I haven't seen anything to seriously suggest they'll trade either player, but aside from the large amounts of money remaining I don't see why the structure has much impact; deferred money is deferred money. That said, Strasburg's opt outs after 2019 and '20 would have to be baked into the package, and it's also worth   pointing out that Scherzer will have 10-and-5 rights by the end of this season.
Zoop
12:58
Luzardo more likely to be called up before or after the all star break? Would it depend on the A's record?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I included Luzardo in the aforementioned ESPN piece. My understanding on him is that a best case scenario has him returning around the All-Star break. I'd guess that the A's performance between now and then will play into whether they push to do so beforehand or not, though you know they're not going to take undue risk with such a prized prospect. I'd bet he doesn't come up until after mainly because stuff happens with young pitches.
Kurupt FM
1:00
Have you looked at Justin Smoaks numbers? Walking as much as he strikes out and his hard hit rate is over 50% but the guy is lugging around a low 100s wRc+. Ultimate bad luck or an underlying issue?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
Offhand, I'd guess it's mostly luck. His exit velo is in the 86th percentile, and his xwOBA is in the 96th percentile, but there's a 73 point gap between his .418 xwOBA and his .345 wOBA, which is the fourth-largest out of 307 players who have seen at least 300 pitches.
Bill
1:03
Can you recommend an article/explanation for basic understanding of advanced stats?  Most baseball fans I know understand the classics and WHIP, KK/BB, WAR etc but not necessaily FIP, xFIP, bWAR etc...
AvatarJay Jaffe
connor
1:05
Free Luis Urias!!!  When will this happen?
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