JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:05

I'd bet pretty soon. He's another one in that ESPN piece. He's tearing up the PCL while Kinsler decomposes.

King James

1:05

It seems like the Nationals will end up with no championships in the Harper-Strasbourg-Rendon era. How much blame do you put on GM Mike Rizzo for that? What's frustrating to me is it seems like the same issues continue to plague them(bullpen, bad manager)

Jay Jaffe

1:08

Given the star-level talent, the frequent high-level free agent expenditures and the revolving door at manager, the blame really has to center on Rizzo. To be fair, the Nationals have maintained a strong farm system on his watch that has helped fuel their ongoing efforts, but the dismissals of Davey Johnson and Dusty Baker in favor of rookie managers he could more easily keep under his thumb has backfired greatly.

Prospector

1:09

Remember when we wondering where Jeff McNeil was going to earn ABs in a crowded Mets lineup? Yeah, me either.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Alas, I just saw that he landed on the IL with a bad hammy. But yes, he's been excellent, and hardly the reason for the Mets' woes.

Gary Sanchez

1:10

So I was probably genuinely struggling with that groin injury all last year, huh? (I'm surprised I only have 1.2 WAR, but I was also injured, of course.)

FFM

1:13

Paddack RoY?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

Elements of the New York media certainly did something less than cover themselves in glory by doubting the existence of Sanchez's injury. That said, his decline as a pitch framer is eating into his value.

1:15

whoops, hit fire on the Paddack q too quickly. I'd put him, Pete Alonso, and Mike Soroka on the top tier thus far, but there's still a lot of baseball to play, and Paddack will probably face an innings limit. Tatis got off to a great start and could play his way back into the picture too.

1:15

Hi Jay! Have you heard any news about Joe McCarthy, Rays? Back injury in spring training was supposed to be minor, but he hasn't played yet. Has he been excoriated?!

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I have a list of known idiots who would name their child Joe McCarthy. WTAF, man.

1:17

I don't know what's going on with him; the last injury update I saw was early April. I know that the Rays are tighter-lipped than most when it comes to minor league injuries but I'd check out the various blogs and prospect hounds, who would have a better idea than I do.

Voldemort

1:18

Jay - I'm all for this new opener/bullpen strategy. But is it a little crazy to you that the Rays are rolling with just 2 traditional starters in their rotation?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Well, they did have Glasnow alongside Snell and Morton before he got hurt, and what's weird is that Chirinos' starts have generally been pretty solid. At some point, they hope to get both Honeywell and De Leon back from Tommy John surgery. In the meantime, they're playing to their strengths and it largely seems to be working.

1:22

Everyone was talking about how Nomar Mazara was going to improve, but then talk went quiet. What's the deal with him?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

He continues to hit the ball on the ground too often and doesn't walk enough. I wonder if he'll ever fulfill his potential, or if a change of scenery (or coaches) would help, which isn't to say that I'm advocating a coaching change — i couldn't name the Rangers' hitting coach offhand, and whoever he is has to worry about the whole team, not just one guy.

troke

1:24

Mets-iest headline of the year: "Mets' Robinson Cano suffers quad injury running out grounder days after being criticized for not hustling."

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Another great day in Metsiness. That train is never late. Check out David Roth's latest on the team https://deadspin.com/do-not-let-the-barrage-of-mets-failures-distract-...

1:25

It seems every time I go to Greenlight someone's buying your book. I'm sure you probably get the numbers, but just thought you'd like to know you really do seem to be driving some business to support independent bookstores. Nice to see.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Wow, I'm flattered to hear that. I actually have almost no knowledge of the sales numbers — the royalty statements are like nine months behind — and none regarding where the books are being sold unless Greenlight contacts me to sign one, which hasn't happened in awhile. I'm happy to do my part in supporting indie bookstores though!

Zach

1:26

With McNeil and Cano hitting the IL, will J.D. Davis do enough to lock down a starting spot the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I'm not sure Davis' defense is good enough to do that, and at some point, Jed Lowrie is presumably going to show up, unless he's thought better of it after reading the headlines. I do think it's possible that the Mets cut bait on Frazier when Lowrie returns.

Royally Homer

1:29

Alex Gordon got a shot at HOF? I'd guess pretty low going into the season... but now?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

What? No. he has 37.0 career bWAR into his age-35 season. The Hall of Fame position players at that age/level are mostly the Frisch guys — Bottomley, Lindstrom, Youngs, Hafey, High Pockets, Lloyd Waner — plus the mediocre catchers (Schalk and Ferrell). Maybe if he comes back from the dead to head a committee that includes Dayton Moore and Ned Yost...

Thor

1:33

What you think of Endgame?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Haven't seen it yet. My interest in the MCU is sporadic and limited by the realities of parenthood — Emma will sneak out to see the movies in the theater but rather than pay for a babysitter, I'll watch them at home when they hit streaming or DVD. I'll manage to avoid enough spoilers in the meantime, just as I have for their other movies (I just watched Age of Ultron, to tell you how fast I'm moving on this).

Cool Papa

1:37

Hey Jay, 2 questions. 1) What's up with Joey Votto? He doesn't seem right but his plate discipline stats are not far off his career averages. Concern level that this is the beginning of the end? 2) Nolan Arenado 'feels' like a HOFer already but given Larry Walker's and Todd Helton's up hill battle with induction, what kind of stats does he need to pile up in order for the BBWAA to overlook the Coors Field effect?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

Lots of Votto questions, and I don't know the answer off-hand, so maybe I'll take a closer look in an upcoming piece.

As for Arenado, he'll have an advantage over Helton and Walker thanks to his defensive numbers and the ample footage that supports them, but he's still going to have to remain productive offensively. I'd say that if he winds up in the ballpark of Helton's career hit and homer totals (2,519 and 369, respectively), he'll be a lock thanks to the added value of his defense.

Jeff

1:41

When do the Indians start shopping Ramirez or Lindor?

Jay Jaffe

1:42

Two years from now, maybe. ON that note, my Indians piece is live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/indians-drop-cargo-retain-baggage-from-off...

Voldemort

1:42

Do the yankees trade for another starter? If so, who?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

My guess is that they make a strong run at Keuchel rather than trading.

Guest

1:46

There was an article recently (Hardball Times maybe?) about Tony Gwynn's almost .400 season. Cody Bellinger was over .400 as recently as yesterday. Got me thinking, what's the latest in the season that someone (qualified batter) has been above .400 since Gwynn?

Jay Jaffe

1:49

I don't know the definitive answer to that but a few minutes of poking through B-Ref game logs among the guys who have hit at least .370 in a season since then shows that Nomar Garciaparra was hitting .403 as of July 20, 2000 (Game 1). Gwynn was above .400 as late as July 14, 1997.

Tom

1:50

More longevity as a power 1b that sticks for years to come, Hoskins, Alonso or Vogelbach?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

I'd go with Alonso. That bat speed is incredible.

Scott

1:51

It looks like Pedroia's not going to do much more to help his Hall case going forward. Does he have a chance?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

Probably not, based on his 1,805 hit total and the Rule of 2000.

T(win)s

1:51

After nearly a decade of mediocrity, do you see the Twins being able to sustain some success past this season? Solid team, solid farm, new management, and minimal long term contracts all add up to promising future.

Jay Jaffe

1:53

They have a nice core of young talent, and this regime's move from the team's decades-long addiction to pitch-to-contact types seems promising, for sure.

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