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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/24/18
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Billy Beane
12:45
Talk to me about this spaghetti sauce recipe, Mr. Jaffe.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Mom's recipe. 2 28 oz cans crushed tomatoes, 1 can diced, 2 T double-concentrate paste, 6 or so heads of garlic plus some crushed red peppers, chopped parsley, chopped fresh oregano, salt and pepper, and about a teaspoon of some secret herbs and spices that my mom brought back from Italy that for some reason is a total game-changer.
Wes
12:48
No question here, just wanted to wish you a good flight and to have helpful flight crew and passangers. I know how rough it can be with a young kid on a flight.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Thank you, sincerely. I'm optimistic but also braced for 6 hours of hell.
Mike
12:49
How are the dodgers going to handle Buehler's workload? They need him in the rotation now, but how are they going to do that and keep him available for potential postseason work?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
A lot will depend on how quickly/effectively Kershaw, Hill and Ryu come back. Under optimal circumstances I'd think they would probably put the brakes on him in July as they did with Julio Urias in 2016, then ramp him back up later in the year, but right now, I think if they have to burn most of his innings before the trade deadline, they will, and get somebody in a deal. Hamels seems like a possibility.
Bob Dobalina
12:52
Isiah Thomas is statistically one of the more overrated stars from that era. The rest of the Bad Boys Pistons never get enough credit (Laimbeer, Dumars, Johnson, Rodman, Aguirre) and that team as a whole mostly capitalized on a right-place-right-time ascent during the decline of the Celtics/Lakers and before the Bulls were ready.
What I'm trying to say is fuck Isiah Thomas
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
We are on the same page. Also, I enjoyed watching former Jazz star Adrian Dantley with them. He could stlll light it up.
Rockie Dangerfield
12:54
Is it too early to start this year's Larry Walker HoF campaign?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
it's about eight years too late. He made a big jump on the 2018 ballot, all the way to 34.1% but won't get to 75% over his final two years. Hoping he gets to 50% to set himself up for future Today's Game eleciton.
Toddhole
12:55
Hi Jay! Are you aware of a stat or some body of research that deals with the volatility of performance by position? I was surprised to see the sort of cash thrown at mid relievers this offseason because I think of them as being so streaky - but I realized I had no real stat to back feeling up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
I'm not. But the 60-inning workloads that relievers throw are pretty small, sample-size wise, and throwing the baseball max effort at high velocity creates an injury risk that is probably exacerbated by the competitive desire to man up and remain available as much as possible. So performance deteriorates and you don't get a lot of guys who remain top-flight relievers for several years in a row.
WormsleyCommonGang
12:57
You don't like having fun in chats do you? Good grief.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
yes, that must be it.
Lance Biggerstaff
12:59
Don't like having fun? We're talking sammiches, meatballs and the Bad Boys, for God's sake
Butters
12:59
Does Tyson Ross get traded and do you think his success this season is sustainable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
If he can stay healthy into July, he looks like a significant trade piece in what probably won't be a very deep market. I'd like to see his velo and swinging strike rate continue to climb before I fully buy in.
Pete
1:01
FanGraphs has made the argument that player opt-outs are bad deals for teams. But in the case of Bryce Harper, could it work out? The Nationals clearly don't want to pay him the $350-$400M for ten years or so it'll take to keep him. But if he insists on opt-outs, as he almost certainly will, why not sign him, fully expecting him to leave after three years? That way, they're off the hook for most of the contract, can maximize their remaining Scherzer/Strasburg years, and don't have to pay for his eventual decline.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
There's always the risk of injury when it comes to those opt outs, and Harper has seemed more injury-prone than most, but yes, I can see the logic of signing him to a deal with a big sticker price and being somewhat relieved that he splits in 3-4 years.
Oyster Burns
1:02
If we were creating a Hall of Narrative that ignores stats but inducts players with fun stories or interesting careers, who is your inaugural class?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
this is basically what the Baseball Reliquary does with its Shrine of the Eternals, and I highly encourage everyone here to check them out. http://www.baseballreliquary.org/awards/shrine-of-the-eternals/
Sideburns McGee
1:04
In your opinion:  1. *Should* Joe Mauer be elected? and 2. *Will* Joe Mauer be elected?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Yes, definitely; and yes, eventually.
Bert
1:05
Is Odor just a bad hitter? Any chance of turning it around?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
He's gotten pretty bad. I don't see him improving until the Rangers make him commit to tightening his control of the strike zone, even if it comes at the expense of some power. A 58 wRC+ since the start of last year ain't cutting it
Eric
1:06
Over/under: 5% chance Gleyber Torres makes the hall of fame
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Wrote this a couple weeks ago when Ronald Acuña was promoted: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance...

Historically speaking, a 21-year-old with 100 MLB PA under his belt has a 14% shot at the Hall of Fame. A 19-year-old with a single plate appearance (hello, Juan Soto) has about a 10% shot.
Ronnie
1:08
Machado & Harper are about to get about 750 million dollars. Trout has more WAR than both of them combined. Could he really get three quarters of a billion if he were a free agent this winter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
No, because that's not the way it works. But he'd get a bigger contract than either Harper or Machado.
Zock Jr.
1:09
Jay, this NFL anthem ruling is pretty disgustingly unamerican. Any chance we see more MLB player protests in response?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
Not unless Carlos Delgado is coming out of retirement. Recall that last year only Bruce Maxwell made a point of kneeling during the anthem. You have to remember that the demographic makeup of MLB is much different than that of the NFL, so it's not like you're going to see an inherent amount of cross-sport solidarity.
Brood550
1:12
So Jay's a Knick's fan.  LOL, rockin you some Starbury's?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Watching (or rather ignoring, except for the headlines) the endless failure that has been the Knicks during most of my 23 years in the city helps keep me warm at night. I do feel bad for former Jazz star Jeff Hornacek for having to coach that wreck, but he's a free man now.
Yadi's Lil Molinas
1:14
During the Cardinals game yesterday, I saw Pena take a foul ball to the top of his knee and he was clearly in pain. Luckily he was able to stay in the game and it doesnt look like a DL stint is required...but honestly, what would the cardinals do if they had Molina, Kelly, and Pena on the DL? Would they have to call up Knizner?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
I guess it depends if Ted Simmons or Tom Pagnozzi is taking Mozeliak's calls. Might just have the pitcher throw straight to the backstop.
John
1:15
Speaking of Torres, I'm noticing a narrative among Cubs fans that the Torres/Chapman trade might have been a mistake in hindsight. Even if Torres leads the Yankees to ten straight World Series and is a first ballot hall of famer, wasn't it worth it to get over the hump, even if the Cubs don't win the World Series again for the next hundred years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
Flags fly forever, it has been said.
Matt
1:16
Seems to me that the Gleyber Torres trade has a chance to replace Lou Brock as the worst trade in Cubs history when it is all said and done.  What say you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
Given that they didn't get a championship out of the Brock trade (but the Cardinals got two), I think it's gonna be a slim likelihood that the Torres trade tops it
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