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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/24/18
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Jesse
1:17
After 50 games played, the Astros are on pace to shatter the single season record for fewest runs allowed in a 162-game season. At what point does the record become in serious jeopardy of falling (if the 2.5 runs/game pace continues)? 80 games? 90? 100?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
if they take it into September they might have a chance, but I'm skeptical there won't be regression, particularly in this relatively high-scoring environment
Kosch
1:18
Most underrated player since 1980??  My take is Bagwell...who is yours?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
Bagwell, Raines, Utley and Walker are guys I'd put into that conversation
Bart
1:19
What's your thoughts on Paul Goldschmidt and his slow start? Is the humidor a factor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
I've written about him a couple times and had a bit about the humidor here. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/losing-pollock-isnt-the-d-backs-only-p...

IIRC, others have mentioned that Goldschmidt has had trouble with the high-velo stuff. That's on my list of things to check into.
jason
1:21
I was late to the chat due to someone's compelling Gleyber piece.  You say the Yankees are "alarmingly close to the 269-homer forecast that Jeff Sullivan highlighted back on February 22."   Why "alarmingly?"
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
269-homer forecast, 272-homer pace? I mean, it's pretty clear Jeff Sullivan is a sorcerer of some sort, and that's rather alarming to me. YMMV.
Billy Beane
1:22
Jay, you're a slow, deliberate, unapologetic chatter. I respect that about you. Thanks for chatting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
I did it myyyyyyyyy waaaaaaaay!

Thank you.
Bill
1:22
What kind of chances do you give Chris Sale to make the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
He needs to have a few more big years and then stay healthy for awhile. Doable, but his JAWS is just 37.3, and it needs to get to about 50 before it becomes realistic
Please win, Caps
1:26
What would Josh Hader have to do to win NL Cy Young in your eyes? Assume Scherzer finishes around 7 WAR in this scenario as per his projections.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
If Scherzer keeps doing what he's doing, i don't see him losing out on the Cy. His 40% K rate is unreal
Butters
1:26
Where do you think Cole Hamels goes?  Could the Mariners get him for salary and a mid-level prospect, or is he likely to be a lot spendier than that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
The Mariners don't have the prospects that the Dodgers or Yankees do, and I think both could be in on him.
Lee
1:27
Never get tired of this one   
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
oh yes.
Marc
1:27
Jokes aside, for his 45th birthday, does Bartolo Colon have any chance of making the hall of fame, if only through sheer longevity and force of will?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
No. I love Bartolo as much as the next fan, but the performance isn't elite enough, and let's not forget the impact of PED suspensions on candidacies.
Ducking Fodgers!
1:29
Is what Brock Holt doing sustainable? will he ever get more playing time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Not sustainable but his versatility makes him an important player for the Red Sox. He'll get his playing time even after Pedroia returns
PD
1:31
Isn't the Joe Morgan trade much worse than the Lou Brock trade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
it ain't great. WAR-wise (where Brock doesn't do well), you may in fact be right.
Bo
1:32
Why does Andruw Jones get such little HoF love? 10 straight Gold Gloves and 400+ HR.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
Guys who disappear by their mid-30s generally don't get much love from voters and then there's the Rule of 2000. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/
Jsto
1:32
Is it realistic for Betts to top Trout in WAR by end of season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
He's doing it now (4.0 to 3.6) but I don't see him sustaining a 216 wRC+. So I think he falls behind eventually. Still, he's amazing and I'd like to offer a friendly Bronx cheer at my former staffmates at SI.com who derided me for pushing Betts for #3 (behind Altuve and Trout) in the Top 100 Players feature we did just before I departed for FanGraphs.
1:35
OK folks, I've got podcasting and packing to do before I get out of here, so this is the end of today's chat. Thanks for stopping by to talk about spaghetti, meatballs and the Hall of Fame!
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