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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/26/20

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One thing

2:53

I was just spreading some cheer (re: baby). I figure we need some. As for baseball, have you seen the quotes from the players who say they can't stop chewing tobacco or spitting? Are they going to get fined for this? (They should be. Good time to quit!)

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Got it. And now, I haven't seen any player who's spoken up about the chewing/spitting issues, but minor league baseball first banned chewing in 1993, and MLB in 2016. Anybody still doing it in a baseball context knows that it's being done on borrowed time, and while I can empathize with how difficult it must be to kick the habit, that only goes so far.

Todd

2:58

Steve Rogers or Mark Langston?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

At first I thought this was a performance/career question, then I realized it must be related to Marvin Miller because both were active in the MLBPA — Rogers during Miller's time, including the 1981 strike, and Langston later on, during the '94 strike. The former would make more sense to me; on the latter front, I'm not sure why Langston when Tom Glavine was even higher up in the union AND is in the Hall, but there's a lot of inside baseball I don't know.

Mac Crashdude

3:01

I have a couple questions: 1) Is there any way to effectively calculate WAR and other sabermetrics without Statcast data? I am attempting to parlay it into the collegiate game and am unsure how 6-4-3 Charts do it. 2) Is there any effective algorithm for HOF probability since JAWS only compares players? I’ve been trying to do this for the NHL but it has an era problem Where Gretk

Jay Jaffe

3:04

WAR as it's currently calculated doesn't use Statcast data, though I know some have talked about using expected stats (such as xwOBA); Craig Edwards did so in the service of breaking down recent Cy Young races, for example.

I don't have a HOF prediction algorithm related to JAWS but I know Neil Paine did one a few years ago for FiveThirtyEight.com that I've been meaning to ask about.

Sam

3:04

My more troll-ish idea for honoring Marvin Miller involved reanimating Bowie Kuhn and making him say nice things about Miller, but Messersmith seems more realistic

Jay Jaffe

3:05

Quoth the great Red Smith in 1981, "This strike wouldn't have happened if Bowie Kuhn were alive today." (Kuhn was commish until late 1984, when the somehow-even-worse Peter Ueberroth took over and led the owners into collusion)

One thing

3:06

Article today in SI including quotes from Blackmon and Tomlin re: spitting (both tobacco and otherwise), just FYI. Similarly, are we going to see some players MASH under these circumstances and others just play terribly with these routines? 70ish games is weird but it's plenty of time for stats to be somewhat stable, but I'm thinking the creature of habit stuff will have a big impact.

Jay Jaffe

3:06

Thanks. I think we could see all kinds of weirdness in a smaller sample of baseball. Jayson Stark had a good piece at The Athletic on the topic recently https://theathletic.com/1829339/2020/05/22/stark-what-an-82-game-seaso...

The Stranger

3:07

Is a higher-contact, more balls in play aesthetic actually superior/ more popular? Or is it just appealing because that’s the game as it was played when we started watching?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I don't think anyone can say that one mode of play is objectively more superior, but I do think that the collection of complaints regarding the current pace of play, the long delays between pitches (the source of additional velocity as well as additional time of game), and the gradual decline of balls in play in favor of deeper counts and three true outcomes are all interconnected. As I am now officially a Cranky Old Man, I'm taking greater issue with where the game is. You, of course, are free to disagree.

Guest

3:10

Guess who's been reading for years and just got an ad-free membership! You all support me in different ways, so the least I could do is return the favor.

Jay Jaffe

3:11

Many thanks for your support! It is much appreciated. For those of you reading this who would like to know about different ways to support FanGraphs, via membership, merchandise, or moolah, please see here https://plus.fangraphs.com/shop/

Mac Crashdude

3:11

Gretzky and Lemieux are the rule and not the exception. And 3) Any advice for those like myslel trying to break into the field? I am currently pursuing my MS in Business Analytics from Seton Hall and hold a B.A. in Intelligence Studios from Division II Mercyhurst.

Jay Jaffe

3:11

Didn't realize the question was continued from your previous one, just thought it concluded with a typo or two.

Without meaning to poke fun at your typos (or my own, in the first attempt to answer this), I'd say that while getting your quantitative bona fides in order is certainly a key building block, working on your ability to communicate in writing is also important. There's a reason that so many writers from FanGraphs and other outlets get pulled into front offices — they're able to get their points across to those reading, and it can help their ideas gain acceptance.

vapodge

3:14

Didn't mean for that to be anonymous. I'll proudly stand behind my decision to subscribe.

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Of course, and thanks again!

The Stranger

3:15

To be clear, I’d love to see baseball become less of a TTO-fest. But I’m roughly the same age as you, and MLB doesn’t need to care what we think because we’re hooked for life anyway.

Jay Jaffe

3:16

While MLB may not need to care specifically what *I* think, the trends suggest that there are people 10, 20, 30, 40 years younger than me — as well as plenty who are older — who are even less enamored of the current product.

WinTwins0410

3:17

Jay, a quick one: Dave Concepcion and the HoF. He never did much in 15 years on the BBWAA ballot (he was always above 5% but never above 20%) and he was on an Era Committee vets committee at least once (2014), but didn't come close. Was that the right call? His WAR is low at 40. Do you have a contrarian view on Dave? (He wouldn't get my vote, but I'm curious if you think the Big Red Machine halo gets him back on another Era Committee ballot at some point.)

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Concepcion's case is very similar to that of Omar Vizquel: a flashy, well-decorated fielder who was part of several playoff teams (2x champs and 4x pennants, in his case) alongside many future Hall of Famers or HOF-caliber players. As with Omar, his defensive metrics aren't as glowing as the reputation, so I think his being on the outside is the correct call.

Tacoby Bellsbury

3:21

Who are your favorite guilty pleasure players to watch? (Not on your favorite teams, not MVP-level players, but boatloads of fun for you.)

Jay Jaffe

3:22

I do enjoy sidearmers and submariners, even when they're not necessarily the most effective pitchers. And I'm always going to root for Pat Venditte, the ambidextrous pitcher.

Oakland_Fan2

3:22

Do you believe that relievers should be in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

The best of them, for sure. Aside from Billy Wagner and mayyyyybe Joe Nathan, I'm not sure there's another one who has built up a resumé I'd consider worthy of admission right now; Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman all have a ways to go, to say the least.

Maladjusted Loser Freak

3:24

That Rogers/Langston answer only made me like these two seeming randoms more. They're just pitchers I had no idea were so excellent, the union stuff just makes them more badass

Jay Jaffe

3:26

Wait, it wasn't a Marvin Miller question? That's funny, but I'm happy to have provided a bit of education.

Rogers I'll always have a soft spot for, not only because he got a raw deal for giving up the pennant-winning homer to Rick Monday in 1981 but because he somehow dominated my 1977 stat-based Strategic Simulations Computer Baseball league, which I wrote about here https://oldtimefamilybaseball.com/post/73880788748/the-basement-tapes-...

FXB

3:26

Hi Jay, I have really enjoyed your KBO reporting, just as I've enjoyed the KBO. I'm fairly confident that I'll still be watching a year from now. Will you? The average fan? Is there anything you think the KBO can do to establish itself in the US, or will it fall off the radar once MLB is back on our screens?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

Thanks! It's been a lot of fun, and even if and when MLB does come back, I'm hoping to keep an eye out on the KBO for the remainder of this season thanks to the ESPN deal, which runs through the remainder of this season; that would include occasionally writing about what's going on, of course, though not at my current frequency. Going forward, I think a lot will depend upon whether the games remain accessible to US audiences, and whether any statistical resources become more accessible as well. There does seem to be a market for KBO fantasy baseball, for one thing.

Geust

3:28

Have you put any thought into your Zoom background for the KBO drop in you're doing?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

Yes but no final decision made. Stay tuned!

3:30

OK, folks, thanks again for stopping by for what I hope has been an enjoyable 90 minutes of baseball chatter. Please tune in tomorrow for my ESPN/KBO debut, and look for another chat in this spot next week. In the meantime, stay safe and sane!

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