Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/26/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Good afternoon! I hope you all enjoyed the three-day weekend.
12:02
I flew solo while my wife and daughter drove upstate to visit my father-in-law (I had to stay behind to dog-sit). Did a lot of dad-puttering around the house, some repair projects, some yardwork, and a trek to Jersey City to see the 50th-anniversary celebration — and perhaps the final show ever — of The Feelies.
12:03
Anyway, back to baseball. Before we get started, I need to note that as with last week, we're trying a new system with our chats, where you're required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don't need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. This is still something we're evaluationg. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.
John Tereniak
12:03
Would Phils have been better off signing Machado than Harper when they were looking at both way back when?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
Eh, I'm not sure. Yes, it's harder to come up with a great third baseman, and the Phillies have had their problems there since then (Alec Bohm has had one season above 2.0 WAR) but I think Harper was the better fit for the city and the culture, as Machado has been for the city and culture in San Diego
12:07
the two are almost dead even in fWAR 27.9 to 27.7 for Harper, and that's with an additional 107 games missed due to injuries
Dennis Brown
12:08
who do you expect to be more productive rest of season between the slow-starting injury returnee Ha-Seong Kim and the surprise break out (now also slowing down) Ildemaro Vargas?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
it probably comes down to whether you're considering defense or not. Kim is the much better defender playing a key position, and even if he doesn't hit for a 100 wRC+, he can still be an above-average player. Vargas, who has produced just a 54 wRC+ in May after a 204 wRC+ in April, plays all around the diamond at less demanding positions. He *might* outhit Kim the rest of the way if he can adjust to the adjustments made against him, but even that's not a guarantee.
Jeremy Fox
12:12
Can Wheeler win Comeback Player of the Year, given that he didn't miss all that much time at the end of last season or the start of this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
I don't think there are any hard-and-fast rules about qualifying for Comeback Player of the Year honors. As with Manager of the Year, it's driven a lot by narrative, and it's given out by MLB, not the BBWAA, so there's less transparency (we don't even get to see voting results). Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is pretty serious, and Wheeler has ben brilliant so far (1.67 ERA in 6 starts). But mostly i think it will come down to the competition — is his story more compelling than an alternative candidate?
mragbayani
12:15
Is the only thing that could keep Soto and Lindor from Cooperstown the 24 guys they share a locker room with?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Well, recent voting history says that getting caught up in a PED scandal would be the biggest roadblock for any HOF candidate, not that i think either of these guys are involved in such drugs. Lindor is already at 49.2 JAWS and is ranked 19th among shortstops — he's done most of the heavy lifting.
12:19
Soto, by contrast, is 34th among right fielders and while his ceiling is higher and he's younger, he's got a longer way to go. I don't think the success of the Mets while they're both in Queens is going to determine whether or not they get into Cooperstown. It's going to be whether they stay healthy and productive.
Schwartz
12:19
It feels like there's more focus on teams having a bad start to the season (BoSox, Mets, Astros, Philly) than in previous years. Is that because these teams were more highly-rated pre-season? Or is it something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Firing your manager is one way to put focus on your bad start, and both the Red Sox and Phillies did that. The Astros have been perennial contenders but now it looks as though they've reached the tipping point for falling apart due to attrition and injuries. So there's gonna be focus there. Boston aside — and I think we really need to lower our expectations for that franchise's aspirations in the post-Mookie era — the other three teams are in three of the country's five largest media markets so it's not surprising they get so much attention.
war2d2
12:23
Hi Jay! Last week I complained about the Cubs’ incompetence with RISP and then later that day they went 1/8 with RISP and stranded 7 runners. I’ve been a Cubs fan most of my life and aside from the slide at the end of 2004 I can’t remember another time I felt this bad about a team that was supposed to be good. Just utterly demoralizing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
When I checked in on the Padres last week I noted that they had the majors' second-largest differential between their wRC+ with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty, and the Cubs were dead last in that category. I haven't gone back to evaluate how sustainable either is but it does seem kinda fluky. I get that it's frustrating, and sticks out like a sore thumb, but I don't know  that it's a permanent affliction.
JustinPBG
12:25
It could always change but Cam vs Nolan is starting to feel a bit like Judge vs Conforto (I distinctly remember the latter being projected much more highly in April 2017 FG chats!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
The Judge-Conforto comp doesn't make much sense to me given that c. 2017 the former was a prospect and the latter had about a full season under his belt, with a good 2015 and a meh 2016. Judge ranked higher on BA's 2015 prospect list (53 vs. 80) and had much louder tools. Other than forcing it into a New York vs. New York comparison — which, sure, I get — it doesn't seem like much of a contest.
12:31
As for Schittler vs. McLean, both made very big leaps last year — neither was on our preseason Top 100. Schlittler, in particular, has found an extra gear and is just overpowering now. McLean is taking his lumps. I think people take for granted how well the Yankees have done at developing starting pitching in recent years.
sharajr
12:32
What do you think Carlos Delgado's odds of getting to the HOF are? He was really close in the last committee vote. (Also - what are your thoughts about trying to elevate/appreciate non-PED players if voters are also going to punish PED users?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Here's the thing: Ted Simmons is still the only one-and-done guy to get elected via a Veterans or Era Committee, so the odds are still very long for another candidate to go that route. Yes, if the Hall is juicing the committees to the point that they're picking voters who will elevate subpar non-PED candidates while trying to humiliate the PED-linked ones, maybe that improves the odds of someone like Delgado but the bottom line is that his election would make even less sense than those of Dale Murphy or even Don Mattingly because — while he had tremendous power and better longevity — he wasn't nearly the all-around player either of them was.
ankoalec
12:37
If Detroit's rotation is ever fully healthy this season with Skubal and Verlander, is there a legitimate chance that Flaherty gets released? He's been a painful watch, and if the team is seriously trying to turnaround the season having him start every fifth day over, say, Montero or Melton feels like malpractice (maybe it ends up being a moot point if they sell, though)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
We've seen Flaherty go through ups and downs before. he's obviously not pitching well right now, but it's more likely he's somebody else's fix-it target or dead money offset than an outright release. I suspect that once Skubal and Verlander return, they'll have Flaherty try to work out whatever's going on while pitching out of the bullpen.
Hazmat Corntail
12:40
Does the Statcast optimism on Mookie Betts do anything to outweigh the dreadful surface numbers thus far?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
yes, i think so. His 90.8-mph average exit velocity is his highest since 2023, and likewise for his 10% barrel rate. He's got an xBA of .257, just 10 points below last year, and an xSLG of .442, 20 points ahead of last year. Plus he's squaring the ball up more frequently. Might have to make small adjustments but I expect him to rebound.
Grega
12:44
How much of an impact do hitting coaches really have?  Manny, Merrill, and Fernando were doing okay last year.  This year they've been sleepwalking.  Nothing against the guy, but Stephen Souza Jr has no experience coaching and can't seem to snap these guys out of it.  On the other hand, Gavin Sheets is reaching new heights. Is a change in order or have Manny, Merrill, and Fernando, simply timed out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Particularly  in the era of the launch angle revolution, I think we've seen that hitting coaches can make a tremendous difference, which is not to say that every one of them does. I do wonder when a new hitting coach comes in alongside a new manager and tries to instill a different philosophy or has to connect with players who were doing just fine — a situation that describes the Padres and Souza and also the Giants (who have  stopped walking) and Hunter Mense
12:49
on the subject of Tatis, Will Carrol wrote about the possibility of the way Tatis' swing has flattened out being linked to his history of left shoulder problems https://substack.com/home/post/p-198942008
12:50
And he was basing that on a piece that old friend Travis Sawchik wrote about Tatis for Driveline (https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2026/05/fernando-tatis-jr-no-home-ru...). Haven't gotten to that one yet but I think both are worth a look.
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:50
Is this homer-less season strike 3 for Tatis Jr.'s HOF hopes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
i don't expect him to go homerless but I also don't expect to change my evaluation of his Hall of Fame chances until any PED-suspended player gets elected. I don't see him being the guy who breaks decades of precedent.
bubbles
12:54
Beyind Skenes, what pitcher under 25 do you feel has the best shot at Cooperstown? Misorowski?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
maybe Mis or Schlittler but a) neither has completed a full season in the majors yet; and b) both are going to face the consequences of their consistently high velocity at some point, and likely have to reinvent themselves to a degree. Particularly at a itme when no starting pitcher under age 37 projects as more likely than not to make it to the Hall, let's not put all that weight on their shoulders — and elbows.
leoneforthird
12:57
So do the Mainers fire Dan Wilson with the team underperforming?  It was hard to justify when team was winning but he continues to make a series of baffling choices on a weekly basis.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I think he's in trouble but I also think that even having your team within 3 games of .500 while last year's 9-win player has given you next to nothing and is now injured is somewhat miraculous. I'd be surprised if the Mariners make a move before seeing  the impact of a healthy Raleigh
dirtypuer
1:01
So are the Giants just doomed or is there a way to get off of Chapman/Adames/Devers without eating a bunch of the money?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Open wide. No, wider. No, even wider....
1:03
Somebody compared Buster Posey's POBO to Isiah Thomas' tenure running the Knicks, as in an all-time great player becoming an executive but having no clear plan as to how to build a winner. Posey reversing course so soon after taking on all that big money is going to look ridiculous. So will having to fire his jumped-from-college coach.
dan999999
1:03
Had to log in to join the chat (I get you want to encourage people to log in so fair enough) but it took me update my profile and I had to poke a round a bit to get back to a random fangraph page before I could navigate to the chat.
Connecting…