JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/26/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 5/26/26

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Jay Jaffe

1:04

Apologies for the inconvenience, but welcome back!

cosmichero

1:04

At what point are we ready to call the Nats just a top 5-10 offense going forward? this is a decent sample, but they're getting production from a lot of unexpected places

Jay Jaffe

1:08

They lead the majors in scoring and are fourth in wRC+ one-third of the way through the season. I don't think you can avoid calling them a top-five offense right now, and I'll note that they too are doing this under a new hitting coach who came in as part of a new regime, Matt Borgschulte. Everybody who's taken at least 100 PA for them except Nasim Nuñez has a wRC+ of 90 or higher, that's pretty damn impressive

RedsManRick

1:09

At what point do the Reds move on from Matt McLain? The BABIP leaves me hopeful. But he's been a real painful watch since coming back last year.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

He's now almost 200 games into a wRC+ in the 70s, and we're two months into the season, so I have to think we're getting close to the point where a change is on the table. The best near-term alternative from inside the organization appears to be Edward Arroyo, who's been tearing it up at Triple-A and has been playing second base as well as shortstop.. but he's also been dabbling at third base, where Ke'Bryan Hayes has been even worse, and is now injured. Since the Reds do have Eugenio Suarez as a 3B option, I suspect we'll see Arroyo at second sometime in the next month, and if they don't like what they see yet, they'll trade for someone short-term.

ImKeithHernandez

1:15

I despise the idea of Ohtani giving up pitching (or hitting!). Do you think that his less-than-Ohtani-like offense so far is due to his pitching this year? Or is it a small sample size? I look at his 180 wRC+ and 132 IP in 2023 for comfort.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

It has seemed as though Ohtani has been more focused on pitching, and he's dealing with the extra workload and physical effects of double duty to the point that he's sometimes not hitting on days he pitches. I expect some positive regression on the offensive side — he's been trying to make some mechanical tweaks — just as I expect some negative regression on the pitching side.

Take the over on both his 147 wRC+ and his 0.73 ERA, but damn it, be thankful we get to watch a guy who can do both, even for a couple months at a time.

Jolie

1:19

Was last year a dead cat bounce for Springer or is there still some 2025 life in the bat?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Well, I don't expect to see him post a166 wRC+ again. he's a guy who always seems to be dealing with physical stuff, and i suspect his struggles now have a lot to do with his left big toe, which he fractured via a HBP on April 11 and then aggravated when he was hit again a few weeks later. That's gonna cause problems.

Grandpaboy

1:23

The Cubs desperately need SP help. What would Shaw fetch?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Probably not enough to justify trading him at a time when he's netted zero WAR.

Daniel F

1:23

How do you feel personally about combined no hitters? Obviously less of an impressive individual accomplishment, but it seems commonplace now to pooh-pooh the team accomplishment entirely

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I take note of them but don't get wound up by them unless there are particularly compelling reasons — the World Series one from 2022, for example. Yesterday's being closed out by a kid (Alimber Santa) making his major league debut was sort of interesting, but I somehow missed it all

Siddharth Nair

1:27

Howdy Jay, combined no hitter for the 'Stros went crazy yesterday great to watch for me. My question is regarding Altuve's 3000 chance, with the injury he's sustained I'm assuming his chances of getting there are gone unless he and the Astros are fine with him just extending it out, scuffling at the end of the lineup to get hits at the end of his career?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I don't think they're gone yet — he needs "only" 572 — but once he returns he's going to have to hit better than .245 or even last year's .265 to really make up lost ground. A Biggio-like slog to 3,000 probably isn't out of the question, but we'll see where he is when his contract expires after 2029.

theonlynolan

1:31

As a Mets fan can we run David Stearns out of town yet? Really seems like this guy is not good at what he does

Jay Jaffe

1:32

The Mets aren't in a very good spot right now but given his success in Milwaukee, Stearns' overall track record is stronger than, say, Steve Cohen's track record as an owner.

1:34

Right now most of Stearns' big decisions for 2026 aren't looking so hot, I get it, but teams have coveted guys like Luis Robert Jr. and Bo Bichette and so it's not as though every choice he made was a reach.

comfreyheals

1:35

If Skubal comes back even close to his old self and Detroit is double digit games back of a WC, how many top 100ish prospects does a rental Tarik bring them?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

At most two, I think — if he's dominating and if the Tigers are set on dealing him — but we're not talking like two top-10 prospects, it would be guys who at least made the list.

JCCfromDC

1:36

It's been fun to watch the Nats not be terrible for a while. Along with that, a question: is Curtis Mead a player (not a DUDE, let's not get crazy)? Former failed prospect, now hitting 141 OPS+/140 wRC+, and some of his under-the-hood peripherals are good. There's a lot of red on his statcast page. SSS mirage or is he a "change of scenery" payoff?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Calling a 25-year-old who's never played 100 major league games in a season "a former failed prospect" is kinda ridiculous. It can take some players longer to adapt to the majors than others —not getting regular playing time is certainly a factor. he's getting it now, and things are working.

1:40

So yeah I guess I'd call him a change-of-scenery payoff but there was always an expectation that he would hit

war2d2

1:40

Baumann just posted on Bluesky: “The most interesting thing with Craig Kimbrel is the issue of whether it's possible for someone to play his way out of the Hall of Fame. He was at least as good as Mariano Rivera for almost a decade. I was a Craig Kimbrel-no-Matter-What HOF guy, and now I'm not sure” What do you think Jay? I seem to recall you were never a Kimbrel-HoF guy to begin with.

Jay Jaffe

1:44

Up until a couple of years ago, Kimbrel was dead-even with Kenley Jansen when it came to Hall of Fame chances, but Kenley's kept on ticking to the point that he's now 3rd in saves and still closing (though things aren't going great in Detroit) while Kimbrel got out of whack mechanically and never found his way back. I think their Hall of Fame chances are still pretty close and it's going to depend a lot more on whether the writers are going to honor ANY relievers in the near future than whether they split hairs between the two. And I think that if they don't get in via that route, they'll be easy honorees via the Era Committee down the road.

1:45

it rarely ends well for relievers but that's one of the reasons why candidates have a 5-year waiting period - it cleanses the palate and washes away the memories of those nomadic final seasons. We'll remember the dominance first and foremost.

doughboy

1:46

Is there ever a reasonable explanation to continue to roster and start a -1.0 war player like Wenceel Perez? Yes, there are injuries, but to consistently roll him out due to "roster implications" seems negligent. What do you make of the 2026 Tigers and their current roster of 5 players with negative WAR, negative defensive metrics and battings averages primarily under .200? Seems sub-optimal to just continue riding this out and torpedoing season

Jay Jaffe

1:50

There's always more to making out a roster and lineup than just a player's current stats. Teams differ in their internal evaluations (we see his defense as plus, we like the way he balances the lineup, he's a good clubhouse guy), they have inside information (this guy's got some heath or personal stuff going on, or we really like the work he's putting in with the hitting coach, or... etc), and so on. Doesn't always make it the most defensible baseball move to keep playing the guy, and I get that the current regime in Detroit may not merit the benefit of the doubt, but I don't think Perez is their biggest problem. He was a league-average hitter just last year, and the Tigers have to believe he's not far off from regaining that kind of form

1:51

OK folks, we've run this about as far as we can. Thanks so much for stopping by this week!

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