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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/3/18
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BK
12:52
What do you think the chances are that Judge makes the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
The late start hurts. Not counting players whose career starts was affected by the color line, we haven't seen a 25-year-old or older rookie position player reach the Hall since Earl Averill, a VC pick whose career ran from 1929-41. But if he keeps hitting like this for several years...
Bork
12:57
Shout out to the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
and the Lansing Lugnuts and the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. There are a lot of great/dumb minor league team names out there
Ash
12:59
If Jurickson Profar gets regular at bats, do you still see the potential for a star breakout? He's only 25 and his plate discipline looks fine. Talk me in or out of this plz
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
a full complement of playing time for Profar would be one silver lining for what's shaping up to be a rough season in Arlington, but so far, I haven't seen enough to convince me he's headded towards stardom.
Guest
1:01
Can Nick Ahmed continue to be a decent bat, has he figured something out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
I'm skeptical given the track record but a few weeks ago, the great Nick Piecoro had a very interesting look at the Dbacks' team-wide change in approach, which centers around pitch tunnels. https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2018/04/10/ari... It had seemed to click for guys  like Ahmed and Owings, who really haven't hit at the big league level. So maybe there's something real here
Sonny
1:04
What do you make of Yu's struggles? I was writing off as 'he's only pitched in really cold games and at Coors' but that doesn't apply anymore
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Between the trade to the Dodgers and the move to the Cubs, Darvish has been the subject of a lot of tinkering in a short amount of time. I know the goal has been to simplify his delivery and repertoire, but the efforts might be complicating things for him.
54
1:05
Jay, non baseball BK question for you, did you visit "David Bowie Is" and if so do you have any recommendations? Planning to visit in the next 10 days
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I'm going on Sunday! Excited to check it out. I've been spinning a lot of Bowie this week in anticipation
Dr. Dave
1:07
What's up with Bryce Harper's defense?  FanGraphs has him as the worst Defensive Runs in MLB so far (-5.6)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Offhand, and without having seen him play much this year — the Nationals haven't been atop my viewing priority list given their slow start — I'd guess some combination of Small Sample Size and bad positioning. I wouldn't panic yet.
Sonny
1:09
Is the difference between Jack Morris and Bartolo Colon greater than a dominant WS performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
Colon's got the higher JAWS thanks to slightly better run prevention and better strikeout rate, but yeah, that's largely the difference once you adjust for the different ways that their cult followings developed.
Austin
1:11
Any hope for Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
I'm inclined to cut any free agent signing who spent the winter expecting a deal that didn't arrive until Feb/March a good deal of slack before judging their performance. These guys didn't get the usual spring trainings, after all.
Zonk
1:13
Thank you for your Pujols article.  With the Angels in a tight race, it shouldn't be a tough lift to find a better RHH DH/1B, I would think....how do the Angels manage this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
Thank you! The article of which you speak is here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/albert-pujols-and-the-crawl-to-3000-hi... for those who haven't seen it yet.

Handling Pujols is going to be a delicate matter. I suspect that it becomes easier if he gets banged up and there's a plausible out to DL him for awhile. Given his 42% O-Zone rate, I'd send him to the eye doctor first, because I legitimately wonder if his pitch recognition is suffering.
Tom
1:15
Pepperoncini is wonderful addition to an Italian sub
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
It's damn near essential. Any Italian sub that doesn't have some acidity in there is broken.
Vlady Jr.
1:16
What do you see as my floor? Ceiling?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Floor: pretty good player with a solid career.
Ceiling: museum in Cooperstown renames itself to The Hall of Vlad
Matt
1:17
Hey Jay! Are you one of the foolish folks around here who tolerates fantasy questions? And if so (or it not!) what are your thoughts on Taillon RoS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
I haven't played fantasy baseball since 2011 and haven't written about it since 2012. Surely you can find somebody who's more up on that angle than me to field that one — but I do think Taillon can improve upon what he's shown so far.
Keefths
1:19
Any idea why Aaron Sanchez is throwing his Curve almost 10% less often?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Haven't looked closely. Offhand (no pun intended) I wonder if it's a grip/blister avoidance thing
Hammerin Hank
1:21
Jay, what are your thoughts on Brooklyn Brewery, and how is it regarded locally? Is it becoming so big that it's not hip anymore?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
Good q. They put out some pretty good beers, and I think they should be regarded as the local equivalent of the Sam Adams/Sierra Nevada vanguard leaders, breweries that changed the landscape but reached the too-big-to-be-hip point a long time ago.

While BB has a good tap presence in the city, they're more or less out of the local scrum in terms of competing with the Other Halfs and Singlecuts and Barriers and Threes for cutting edge brews. I hear they're focused on the European market, and I wish them well.
Andy
1:24
Speaking of Bartolo... is his 2005 Cy Young the most egregious example of rewarding pitcher wins for the award?  Mo was probably the winner that year... and even if you dont want to give it to a reliver, Johan had a significantly better year just based on simple stats like ERA, K's, WHIP
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
Bob Welch over Clemens in 1992 was a bigger clinker and I'm sure I could come up with others https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1990.shtml#all_AL_CYA...
Rob
1:26
Would Drury be a good target for the Dodgers?  Not obvious that there's a spot for him in NY.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
when push comes to shove the Yankees will keep Drury and DFA Walker, I think. Not sure how much sense either makes assuming Turner returns soon, but youneverknow
Austin
1:28
Do you think there is any chance Kershaw opts out now with his rough start (by Kershaw standards) to the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
the odds might be decreasing, but it's too early to say.
Adam
1:29
How should the Mets handle their outfield moving forward? Conforto, Bruce, and Cespedes probably aren't going anywhere--could they trade Lagares to make room for Nimmo, or even move Nimmo for another asset?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
they're prepping Bruce to play more 1B, which should find Nimmo some playing time assuming that works (sorry, not sorry). In that scenario i think you still have to keep Lagares around for defensive and platoon purposes.
Randy
1:33
Any thoughts on BP's second and third order winning percentages and how much better they reflect team quality? Personally I am quite intrigued.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
You're talking to the guy who invented the Prospectus Hit List, which used an average of actual , 1st, 2nd and 3rd order Win% for a better gauge of team strength. I think all of those numbers have something to tell us about team quality and are worth a look.
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