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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/3/18

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Josh

1:34

Should Dick Allen be in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Yes. See https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/32361/the-cooperstown-...

Scrapper

1:35

I'm interested in learning more about the micro-data (i.e., spin rates, exit velocities) but its hard to tell how much more we learn than what we already get from more conventional statistics. How have you been using micro-data, if at all?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

I use exit velo and batted ball stats more than spin/movement stats, as it's been a bit easier for me to grasp (no pun intended there) the offensive side of things and easier to get that info without wading too deeply. I think we always have to be wary of sample sizes with that stuff, but some people are very good at picking out patterns that are worth keeping in mind. I'm still learning how to do that.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:37

Take out that cold, bad weather start in Fenway and Severino has allowed 15 hits in 6 starts.

Jay Jaffe

1:38

he is a badass. I hope he stays healthy because he's kicking ass right now.

Grover

1:38

If Kershaw opts out and wants a 8 year deal, do you see the Dodgers front office being the type to give it to him?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I think the Dodgers do everything they can to keep Kershaw in blue (and green) IF they are convinced he is healthy, and I think if they back away, it will be a tell that has reverberations for his market throughout the industry.

Pat

1:39

I know JV is likely in the "borderline" for the HOF category, but, would he be already a lock if you turned his 2 2nd place CY votes to wins? IIRC, he has lost the 2 closest votes in history..the 2nd of those (2016) was galling due to the TB voters that sent in ballots a week before the season ended.

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I think about this a lot with respect to Scherzer and the 3x Cys (but lesser trad and advanced stats AND postseason so far). We've seen several 2x Cys miss the Hall due to injuries and decline but we've never seen a 3-timer miss out.

Thanks to his Houston resurgence, I'm increasingly optimistic about Verlander's HOF chances. At some point this year, I'll write something longer about it.

John Oleruds Helmet

1:42

Mr Jay, oh honored Hall of Fame guru! Oh most gracious addition to Fangraphs chat! I assume Albert Belle has a case for the Hall (based solely on his play) but how good is his case??

Jay Jaffe

1:42

Not all that solid. Took a look here for the 2017 Today's Game ballot https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/11/28/hall-of-fame-todays-game-ballot-haro...

Chatbot 4000

1:43

According to statcast, Matt Kemp runs faster than Bryce Harper this year. Could a slower than average spring speed contribute to Harper's poor defensive metrics?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

It could, though again, I'd caution SSS warnings about any defensive metric right now. But I suddenly wonder a bit more about last year's knee injury

Mag

1:44

How likely do you think it is that Mookie Betts ends up with a higher WAR than Mike Trout?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

Defense counts, but I don't think Mookie's gonna slug .823 all year, which is how he's overtaken Trout on the leaderboard

Scottrick

1:46

Are you related to Eric Jaffe, formerly of the White Sox minor league affiliate?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

Not to my knowledge

Chris R

1:47

Do you think Barry Bonds would be a Hall of Famer if we excluded every season after 1998? It's still insane

Jay Jaffe

1:50

From a JAWS standpoint, he's more than qualified if you cut things off after 1998. As I wrote in his SI.com ballot profile (https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/12/barry-bonds-hall-fame-ballot-2018)

"If you want to play the "He was a Hall of Famer before he touched the stuff" game, consider only what Bonds did through 1998: His 411 homers, 1,917 hits, 445 steals and .290/.411/.556 line were good for 99.6 career WAR (which would rank third among leftfielders), 62.4 peak WAR (second) and 81.0 JAWS (third behind Williams and Rickey Henderson). Bottom line: Warts and all, he gets the nod here.

The only knock there would be fewer than 2,000 hits (1,917 to be exact). A 3x MVP with those sterling numbers might have been the guy to break the Rule of 2,000, but we'll never know.

Belted

1:51

Are there any/many cases of guys with very short brilliant peaks getting into the hall? I'm thinking specifically of Lincecum - great pitcher for about 4 years, won 2 CYs and 3 WS rings. Was the face of the franchise and a media darling. Do these things play in at all?

Jay Jaffe

1:52

Sandy Koufax, Hank Greenberg, Jackie Robinson, Ralph Kiner.. .sure, there are guys enshrined more for peak performance than for longevity. Some of them (Dizzy Dean and a whole lot of VC selections) aren't very good picks. I don't think Lincecum would be a good one either, much as I love me some Timmy.

1:53

Surely Dale Murphy and his back-to-back MVPs would get into the Hall over Timmy.

Jay Jaffe

1:53

and he never even got 25% in 15 years on the ballot.

Mark

1:53

I know it's a long way off and probably wont happen, but since you're the HoF master (and since the man in question is playing quite well these days) I'll throw this at you: what happens to Nick Markakis if he gets to 3000 hits?

Jay Jaffe

1:55

I don't think he'd get in even if he gets to 3K. Somebody will be That Guy, and for awhile it looked like Johnny Damon might be the test case, but at least he had some big postseason stuff to hang his collection of hats on. Markakis not so much. I don't think he'll get that close, because he doesn't have that many standout skills, and once his performance takes a dip below average, he'll be done racking up 160 hits per year.

1:55

If Chris Taylor can play a passable SS and hit, and Turner returns, I dont know why the Dodgers need a guy. They've been overloaded with outfielders forever, now they have room to play them.

Jay Jaffe

1:56

Agreed, they've got a lot of outfield depth to draw upon, including the freshly recalled Verdugo and the still farmed out Toles. Plus there will be more usable OF in the trade market than SS.

silv

1:56

ever had rhinegeist? i was in cinci for the homecoming festival this past weekend and there were more rhinegeist tees than band shirts in the crowd; the cougar blonde ale was particularly strong.

Jay Jaffe

1:57

have not. But I'll keep an eye out.

And on that note, I've got places to go, hair to get did, articles to write and beer to buy. Thanks for stopping by today!

Until next week....

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