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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I'm in a spicy mood today thanks in part to having spent several hours listening and transcribing Tuesday evening's cringeworthy Pirates broadcast while Derek Dietrich hit three home runs  (article forthcoming). That and the leftovers from dinner at Han Dynasty which will constitute today's lunch. Anyway, on with the show...
fan of graphs
12:01
hypothetically, if the padres were to shut down chris paddack. what functionally happens? does he remain on the 25 man roster and just doesn't pitch? does he get put on an inactive list? sent down?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
It would depend upon the date. Assuming the Padres wait until September, they would have the roster space just to let him be. Otherwise, they could option him (which would have service time ramifications and be kind of a dick move) or place him on the IL with, say, shoulder fatigue,
Birch
12:05
Any thoughts on Bridich's comments about beat writers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
12:07
D
12:07
Will Stripling get a shot at the rotation anytime soon? He has been very solid and it's crazy to me he was demoted to bullpen.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
For the moment, the Dodgers have the enviable problem of more capable and effective starters than rotation spots, as well as a bullpen that is... an adventure at times. A significant injury within the rotation might lead to Stripling's return to the fold, but the team could use him in a late-inning capacity if his performance picks up (so far he's allowed 6 runs and 13 baserunners in 8 IP as a reliever).
Govtman6
12:11
Do you see an infield for the jays in 2020 of Vlad, Bichette, Biggio and Tellez.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
It seems possible, but Tellez is struggling lately (95 wRC+), so I don't know that he's really the long-term solution at 1B.
Mountie Votto
12:14
Thoughts on David Bell’s comments after Suarez was hit by a pitch? Pittsburgh beanball is getting out of hand
Tom
12:14
I like how the ump handled the Tim Anderson beaning last night. If you are the kind of team that throws at a guy on purpose, you lose the benefit of the doubt when you throw at him on accident.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Lots of beanball thoughts in the queue. I'd rather umps treat the matter as they did in the Anderson instance. If there's tension and recent history of hostilities between the teams — as was the case in both instances above — I'd rather the umps err on the side of protecting the players.

Man, David Bell has brought some fire to the Cincy dugout. I'm not sure where four ejections in one's first 56 games as a manager sits, but that's an impressive ratio.
12:18
Speaking of Reds-Pirates, here's today's dispatch on Derek Dietrich and the Pirates' fusty broadcast of his three-homer game https://blogs.fangraphs.com/derek-dietrich-winds-em-up-and-lets-it-fly...
Voldemort
12:19
Do you think we're looking at a career year for Rizzo?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
He's turned it around after a slow start, as has teammate Kris Bryant. I haven't really looked closely at what Rizzo is doing but Craig Edwards has a piece today on how he's beating the shift https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-anthony-rizzo-is-beating-the-shift/
Belli Flop
12:21
As a Dodgers fan, Monday's game and last night were amazing games to watch.  Beginning to feel like 2017 again...I like feeling sad so can you tell me something bad about this team besides the bullpen which is pretty bad?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
It's pretty clear now that Cody Bellinger isn't going to hit .400. Also, that A.J. Pollock signing didn't look great even before he was sidelined by his infection.
Buc'd Off
12:22
Is Chris Archer salvageable or just a hyped name brand? Seems to be highly rated, but grossly under performs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
5.57 FIP, 5.75 ERA, 13.0% walk rate, fastball velo down 2.2 mph from 2017. Something is either physically or mechanically wrong, and so far, pitching coach Ray Searage, who's one of the best in the game, hasn't seemed to help. Particularly given the performances of Meadows and Glasnow in Tampa Bay (hurt though the latter is), it's not looking like a great trade for Pittsburgh.
Ben
12:26
What are the Phillies options for centerfield going forward, assuming Odubel Herrera is done for the year? I know they were planning on platooning him and Kingery, but I don't think Kingery is an everyday CF and Nick Williams is a liability in the field.  What is the CF trade market looking like for the summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I think that Roman Quinn will be in their CF plans if and when he gets healthy, but until he returns and the trade market picks up, my guess is that Kingery and McCutchen will spend time there. Trade options from outside the division might include Jon Jay, Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson (or maybe Adam Jones if last year's rejection was simply about his own 10/5 rights and not an objection to Philadelphia specifically).
v2micca
12:31
I'm one of those old school fans that absolutely hated the back stop nets when they went up back in the early 2000's.  I felt like it completely ruined those seats.  Each time there is a call for more protective netting, I instinctively push back against it.  Am I just being selfish in not wanting more seats diminished by the netting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Consider for a moment that the most expensive seats in any ballpark are also among the most protected, behind the backstop, and that location is also where the scouts sit to make their critical evaluations about talent and performance. Those people deal with the minimal hassle of watching through a screen or netting, so yes, you're being selfish.
JoeyBoomBats
12:33
SI recently ran an article about the Mets voiding Cespedes' contract due to his fall in a hole that absolutely did not happen while riding a horse. I remember scuttlebutt about the Giants possibly doing the same for MadBum after the dirtbike incident. Has a team ever successfully voided a big contract like that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
The Yankees voided Aaron Boone's contract after he blew out his knee playing basketball in early 2004, setting up the trade for Alex Rodriguez, but off the top of my head I can't think of another successful instance.
connor
12:37
Why won't padres promote Urias?  Kinsler is hurting them.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
The Padres' two-year deal with Kinsler suggests they value him significantly beyond his dying bat, but yeah, it's getting ridiculous .
Gus
12:37
If Pedroia retired without playing another game, what are his chances for the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I'd guess they've pretty low given that he's short of 2,000 hits, since no player from the post-1960 expansion era has been elected without attaining that milestone.  

Via bWAR, he's close to (but below) the peak standard, and pretty short (no pun intended) when it comes to JAWS. Well below Chase Utley, who would precede him on the ballot by a year, in both categories, but possessing more hardware (MVP, ROY, multiple rings to Utley's one):
Didn't mean to highlight Collins there.
connor
12:42
Free Zac Gallen!  Marlins are clueless.  Agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
The Marlins are clueless, and Gallen has great numbers at AAA, but I know Kiley and Eric haven't been blown away (he was a 40+ FV guy coming into the year, and Kiley said recently that his stuff is unchanged https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-15-19/).
Logan C
12:43
What do you think would be a long-term solution to this unwritten-rules anti-fun beanball war nonsense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
longer suspensions for pitchers and managers for what appear to be intentional/retaliatory drillings. 15 days for a starter, 7-10 for a reliever would clean things up, I think.
It has no name
12:46
Given the dirth of young pitchers having a promising year, Paddock, German, Snell, Castillo etc., what generally is the "innings limit" target for a season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
It varies pitcher by pitcher. General rule of thumb is add 50 innings to last year's total (including minors), but teams will make exceptions in both directions based on both performance and physical aspects.
Nick
12:47
What's to make of the New York Mess last night?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I turned off the game in the top of the 9th, which, whoops. Mets bullpen has been in the bottom half of the league despite the addition of Diaz who hasn't been great (3.22 ERA/3.99 FIP) and the return of a Familia face (sorry, but not as sorry as 5.56 ERA/5.52 FIP). Some of that's probably on Callaway's handling, but not all of it.
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