JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/19

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Morbo

12:50

Follow up: Does Tellez have a longer leash at 1B because his first name is Rowdy? And, that grades out as an 80 baseball name?

Jay Jaffe

12:50

God I hope so. That and his good standing as a Large Adult Son.

Morbo

12:51

Do the Cardinals sign Keuchel next week in an attempt to begin overhauling the disaster that is currently their rotation?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

It would certainly make sense, particularly given that they've apparently ruled out using Carlos Martinez as a starter this year. Plus Keuchel seems like the type of groundballer who thrives in St. Louis, even though they've moved on from Dave Duncan.

GSon

12:54

Twins.. for real or smoke and mirrors?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

The young talent is jelling and their +112 run differential is the best in baseball right now. I'm buying in.

John

12:55

The Almora liner to the little girl was horrible to watch last night. I don't understand why the nets aren't all the way down. I've sat upper deck behind the nets at Wrigley for 5 years and they don't even register. What is the other side's argument here?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

"I'm a complete asshole who paid good money for these field-level seats!"

12:56

That's it. That's the entirety of the argument.

Q-Ball

12:56

Will I see you over at PB Boulangerie on Route 6 in the next couple weeks? Or Mac's Shack maybe?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Wow, who dis? Indeed, the Jaffe-Span Fam is heading to Wellfleet for about 10 days in June. Gonna grab some seafood, some Cape Cod League baseball, a stack of books I've been meaning to read, and enjoy watching my daughter revel in the sand, glorious sand.

Q-Ball

12:59

So, this is Javy Baez now? Still bad plate discipline, but ridiculous ability to go oppo and crush curveballs. Is this the new normal?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

I don't think we can ever describe anything Baez does as normal. He's a player of great and often entertaining, often frustrating extremes — but it's quite clear the good stuff outweighs the bad.

Yasiel Puig

1:00

Is the Cano trade already the worst trade in Mets history? New York history? History history?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

If you think it looks bad now, just wait until Diaz is a free agent, Cano is playing part-time, and Jared Kelenic is patrolling center field in Seattle. Dude was just promoted to High-A https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-top-prospect-jar...

Still, I think the deal has a long way to go before it tops Nolan Ryan/Jim Fregosi as the worst in Mets annals, or the Midnight Massacre Tom Seaver trade.

BenZ

1:04

How much does sitting out half a season hurt Craig Kimbrel's Hall of Fame chances? What about if he misses the whole year?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

As I wrote multiple times, Kimbrel's past four seasons already showed significant signs of decline from his elite level, and while he's still pretty good, I'd say that unless he recovers his dominant form, I'm skeptical about his HOF odds. Missing a year is rarely good given the importance of counting stats to one's Hall of Fame case, and the tendency to fall off from previous levels of performance.

Q-Ball

1:06

What team to you is most disappointing so far? What team is most surprising in a good way? Are you going to say Nationals and Twins?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Those are the most obvious answers. I'd also put the Red Sox, Indians and Rockies in the disappointing category, albeit to lesser degrees, and the Rays as somewhat surprising — though we knew they'd be good.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

1:08

That is some quality invective you just published. Very enjoyable read. Is it fun to write, too?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Assuming you're talking about the Dietrich piece, yes, that was a fun one to write, and I'm glad you enjoyed it. It's also a piece that went through a whole lot of reworking as I dug deeper into the broadcast. I got a late jump on Tuesday night (parents were in town this past weekend, and I owed my family some quality time after spending so much time on the Buckner piece) , and had it run on Wednesday, I'd have missed the Ellis anecdote, for one thing.

vladdeh

1:11

Rank them 1-3 for ROS: Trout, Yelich, Belli

Jay Jaffe

1:12

History, and our projections, still says Trout 1, and toss-up on the other two. But man, I hope this continues to be as fun to watch as it's already been.

Belli Flop

1:12

What would a realistic Dodgers trade package for Will Smith (the Giants pitcher) look like?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Probably not Will Smith (the Dodgers' catcher) in return, alas. And very likely not at all. Do you know how long it's been since the two teams consummated a trade? 2007 according to B-Ref (Mark Sweeney-Travis Decker). And the one before that was in 1985, the one before that 1968, and before that the career-ending Jackie Robinson trade in 1956. Four trades in 63 years! https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1...

BenZ

1:16

Should I vote for Polanco for starting All-Star shortstop because he has been the best this year? Or am I justified in voting for Bogaerts or Semien because of Polanco's PED suspension?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I can't knock somebody for holding a PED *suspension* against a player when it comes to honors, whether we're talking awards, All-Star, Hall, whatever. I feel much differently about the pre-testing era as it pertains to the Hall, but you probably already knew that.

Trent

1:18

Which is more damaging to a player's HOF candidacy: a domestic violence allegation or conviction; or a positive PED test?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

My gut tells me the PED test is more damning but having said that I don't think we've seen an otherwise slam-dunk candidate with domestic violence allegations get held out recently. Among Bonds and Andruw have such allegations but that's not why voters are excluding them.

Cory

1:22

Dansby Swanson is quietly having a decent season. Do you take him or Andrelton Simmons for the next 3 years?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Simmons, though i worry about the effect of that ankle sprain on his mobility.

John

1:23

Hey Jay, what's your take on Cardinals management? Specifically DeWitt and Mo? I'm assuming this will be the 5th straight year of around 85 wins but missing the playoffs. They refuse to spend on elite talent in FA while overpaying for average players(Fowler). Am I wrong for thinking it might be time for Mo(who I've been a long time supporter) to go and get someone with a new philosophy?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Lots of Cardinals questions in the queue, especially ones about Mo, but it's fair to spread the blame to DeWitt when it comes to spending on elite talent, as he's the one setting the budget to which Mo must adhere. The thing is that despite the Fowler deal, the front office has scared up some quality players such as DeJong, Bader, Flaherty, Mikolas, and a lot before them, even if not all of those players are as productive (or even with the team) now. Be careful what you wish for.

James

1:27

Do you see the Astros making any moves to mitigate this injury wave? Consistent at-bats for Tyler White are not ideal.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

My next piece is on the Correa injury. Will discuss some internal options therein.

Egg

1:29

If you had to guess: Do you think the Dodgers hitters made substantial improvements, or do you think they figured out a way to read pitchers or steal signs or something else of the sort? I am surprised about the lack of FG articles on the huge jump some players made, like Bellinger.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

While I don't doubt that a team that employs Chase Utley (as a special assistant) is very good at stealing signs, I think the Dodgers are still at or near the head of the pack when it comes to melding the various aspects of scouting and analytics that go into improving and maintaining performance. Turner, Taylor, Muncy, and so on.

I wrote about Bellinger a bit here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-bashing-their-way-to-the-head-of-t... and Devan Fink went into greater detail here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/just-how-hot-has-cody-bellinger-been/. Dude keeps hitting like he is and I'm sure we'll have more on him.

Manny

1:33

WE WERE PROMISED MORE DRAFT CONTENT OR SOME SORT OF BOARD UPDATE WHERE IS IT

Jay Jaffe

1:34

WHY DON'T YOU ASK ERIC OR KILEY?

TKDC

1:35

Do you not think Kimbrel will sign this weekend?

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