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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Not yet but I do believe you're on your way
Alby
2:52
With the state of pitching at present, how can anyone seriously think expansion would be a good idea?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
Maybe what you're seeing is evidence that there are too many good hitters!
2:54
you can always look at players who are struggling and use that as a justifucation that there aren't enough MLB caliber players to go around when in fact it's now been 25 years since the majors last expanded and the player pool has only continued to grow.
Red Ass Red Sock
2:54
Now that he seems to have turned a corner health-wise, is 3,000 Ks in play for Chris Sale? Forget the HoF, and quite frankly, forget that he seems to have the general personality and likability of lukewarm dog poo, just curious what his chances of hitting that mark look like.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
he needs 871 more strikeouts to get to 3,000. He's got 65 this year and 122 since the end of 2019. I don't see enough progress yet to suggest he can make it.
Cole
2:55
Is it too early to consider Grayson Rogriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Walker post-hype?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
yes
Pkpkpk
2:56
Let's say the A's actually do manage to lose 125 games. What, if any, consequences do you think they'll face, from the league or otherwise? I have to imagine the brass in Vegas will see exactly what they're doing and do some hard evaluation of funding a stadium. If that happens, what do they do? Stay in Oakland? Find somewhere else in less than a year? I can see this backfiring on them in a catastrophic way.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
haha consequences?
people will ridicule the team but other than that nobody is going to face any consequences.
2:58
and nothing of their performance is going to affect whether or not they get the funding they want/need to justify a move. that's mainly a matter of local politics
Anon21
2:59
Expecting Michael Soroka to stick in the Braves' rotation if he remains healthy? His first start was not amazing, but looks like the stuff is about the same. Control was an issue (2 BB, 2 HBP).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I'm sure he'll get more reps if he's healthy given the current state of things.
That said, Stuff+ was not a big fan, liking his slider and his command but not much else.
3:00
3:02
he did get a good swinging strike rate and chase rate, so I would hardly give up hope.
Travis
3:02
Popped this one in too late last week, but still curious:
What kind of rest of career does Marcus Semien need to have to generate any kind of HoF case? He seems like a prime Hall of Very Good type player, with a late start and only a few seasons (to date) at a highly elite level, but he's got the heavy lifting done on peak scores, and is (so far) having another high performing year, it seems.

(fwiw, given the number of qualifiers in the question, I think he's a prime candidate for a few token/courtesy votes when the day comes, but I've been wrong before.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
I see three HOF-caliber seasons — which happen to be his last three full ones (2019-22 ex '20) —  and a couple of decent ones. He's already at 3.2 bWAR this year so maybe that's gonna be another HOF-caliber one. He's got a lot of low-hanging fruit in his peak score. four 5-WAR seasons would take him to something like 57.7/42.3/50.0 which starts to look pretty interesting
Cinci
3:07
3B Elly 2B India 1B Steer SS McLain DH CES LF Senzel… there’s room
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
not unreasonable.
Bill
3:09
What do you think about the big jump in Trout's Zswing over the last couple years? Do you think he's gone too far in the wrong direction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Good question. He's seeing more strikes to begin with, which suggests more pitchers think they can beat him in the zone, and at 31 with his mileage and increasing swinging strike rate, they may be right. I wouldn't panic just yet, but at some point he's going to be a 140-150 wRC+ guy instead of a 170-180 wRC+ guy
bork
3:11
proposed trade: tim anderson to LAD for cartaya, stone, and pepiot. who says no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
i don't see the Dodgers giving up that much for a rental given the state of their rotation and the fact that they traded Ruiz less than two years ago.
Pops
3:12
What do you think is the likelihood of Dave Parker ever making the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
low
3:13
His production numbers from the 1980s are pretty empty,  high RBI/low OBP/minimal to negative defensive value
he just wasn't great for that long
Liz
3:13
Kenley Jansen has a big frame and has been just fine with the pitch clock, and I think it's kind of absurd to suggest that heavier guys are naturally going to struggle with tempo more than others just because we culturally associate fat bodies with poor fitness.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
well put. it's worth noting that Kenley has worked his ass off to adjust to his own stuff and the game's demands, both physically and mentally. Manoah, as a guy who hasn't been in the league that long, hasn't shown that yet but I do believe at some point he'll figure it out.
Mr. Burrito
3:15
Dumb question: If the Dodgers offered Michael Bush and, say, a non top-100 prospect to the White Sox, could they pry away Dylan Cease? Feels like a solid starter to offset the many question marks in the rotation is the big piece for this year's Dodgers...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I don't think that would be a big enough package, nor does Busch, with his lack of a defensive position, fit the White Sox's needs very well
3:18
now, maybe a Busch/Stone package could be the starting point for a larger swap involving Cease and Anderson
Andrew
3:18
Where would you put Altuve's HoF odds today? He is about to surpass 2,000 hits, 200 HR and 50 fWAR in his age-33 season, coming off maybe his best offensive season. The 2017 thing is there too, but I'm not sure how much that will impact him considering that (1) voting will probably start about 10 years from now, (2) neither his nor the Astros success changed when the sign-stealing stopped, and (3) he didn't really participate in the whole thing anyway.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Probably better than 50/50 given the resumé and the fact that all of the other contemporary second basemen appear to have fallen short (though I will stump for Utley)
Sonny
3:19
Had a chance to check out a southern league game this weekend and it’s been a while since I was that motivated for a foul ball. Very interested in how noticeable the pretack’d ball feels in hand. Has anyone written about player reactions to it yet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Not that i've seen.
D
3:20
What did you make of Bill James's flip-out over Thurman Munson on Twitter? Putting aside the awful joke, is there a case to made that Munson was not an excellent player/borderline HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
the tastelessness of the joke aside, I really don't get James' intransigence on Munson. The guy was an MVP, perennial All-Star, multi-Gold Glove winner on multiple pennant winners. His peak is clearly HOF-caliber to these eyes, he just made the mistake of dying before his career totals read as such, but to suggest that he's not even worthy of discussion strikes me as odd.

Whatever. I don't really want to get sucked into a debate about Munson unless somebody can show me good *evidence* that he's significantly worse than the numbers suggest. Until then, I've said my piece  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-early-demise-thurman-munson-is-hal...
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