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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/23
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KM
3:26
Besides Derek Jeter, who is someone that comes to mind who makes/made incredible defensive plays, but really isn't all that great defensively overall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I was surprised that Gio Urshela's defensive metrics weren't very impressive when he was in NY, but he was merely average-ish, not a million miles in the red.
Zach Attack
3:28
Zach Mckinstry seems to be a different player, statcast page full of red....is he a must grab (I know context matters, but all things equal?) Take him over Vargas or Lane Thomas?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
he's hitting the ball hard and yet his numbers are behind his x-stats, so yeah, i think he's probably worth having if you can get him
seth r
3:30
notably no Votto on that Reds depth chart...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
He's in his final year under contract and hasn't started a rehab assignment yet. Supposedly feeling better and taking live BP. ONce he comes back, it shouldn't be hard to fit him into a lineup where the regular DH (Stephenson) has an 82 wRC+. And anyway, that's a short-term problem compared to having all those youngsters to play.
Vince
3:33
Do you think Mark Buehrle ever gets in to the HOF? Loved him when he played. Perfect game, no-no, WS win, 200-inning streak. He was good, man! Just very good, though?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
I wish I saw enough to compel me to include him on my HOF ballot but to me he still looks short. Most of the voters see it that way as well, and there are a whole lot more dominant pitchers outside the Hall who have more convincing cases, IMO
McGraw45
3:35
What's up with Tatis? Less K's, but lower hard hit % and lower expected stats. Is he still gaining strength or did he change his approach or both/neither?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
Not sure yet but so far he's definitely a ways off as far as how hard he's hitting the ball, not surprising given the injuries
Logical change
3:36
It's not really a big deal but I'm always bothered when a home plate umpire makes the call on a check swing.  He may be certain it was a swing, but what's the harm in checking with the 1B/3B umpire instead just to be 100% sure?  It's only an additional 5 seconds maybe.  It's kinda like having the 2B umpire call a HR ball down the line fair or foul.  Let's see a rule change for this!  Love your work, rock on.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
thanks. Agree with you on the check swing, seems worth getting some help
Nolan
3:38
Can you explain why so many people seem to take Adley over Murphy? Just saw a question posted by foolish baseball on who the best catcher in baseball will be for the rest of the season between Murphy/Adley/Smith/Realmuto and the poll was overwhelmingly in support of Adley. The stats favor Murphy by quite a lot actually.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
I think it's because Murphy is perceived as being well over his head, performance-wise, and those people may have a point. He's got a 160 wRC+ now, was at 122 last year and 100 the year before, projects for 122 ROS. Adley has a 133 now, same as last year, projects for 129 wRC+ ROS, and is 3 years younger.

The counter to that is that Murphy is putting up great numbers and yet is still well behind his x-stats (.611 SLG). So is Adley but just a .485 xSLG. Anyway, I don't think it's an unreasonable argument to make to think that the former #1 prospect is going to be better than the good-and-suddenly great guy because regression does happen.
Mac
3:42
Volpe a bust?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
Man, get a grip if you think 1/3 of a guy's age-22 season is enough to label him a bust
Justin
3:43
What will Jarred Kelenic’s triple slash look like at the end of the year? Has his start changed your long term outlook on him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Case in point, i thought it was way too early to dismiss Kelenic as a bust (go back and see for yourself) and here he is, raking. He's a bit ahead of his x-stats but I don't think i'd bet on too much regression from his current line. .270/.335/.515?
3:47
ok folks, so many good questions in the queue — a lot of Cubs q's that I'd like to give some thought to, so maybe I'll write about them soon — but I can't get to them all. Thanks so much for stopping by today! We'll do it again next week.
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