JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/31/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:54

I imagine that Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein and Billy Beane would be among them, but for some reason, I bet A.J. Preller would be the most outrageous.

Ben

12:54

Thoughts on Franmil Reyes? Boy, does the ball sound like it's in pain when it leaves his bat

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I haven't seen much of him but he's a BIIIIIIG boy with big raw power, and the rest of his game seems pretty unrefined. On a going-nowhere Padres team, I'm all for seeing what he can do with a few hundred plate appearances, but I'm not sure he's more than a curiosity based on the reservations of prospect hounds.

Guest

12:58

Do you really think player-devaluation is a partial motive behind the Rays bullpenning?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

I don't think the possibility can be dismissed out of hand, particularly given the backdrop of the organization's moves over the past several months. It's a novel way to stay under what appears to be a very tight budget.

Hoser

1:01

69th all time among position players seems pretty damn good to me

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Re: jose Ramirez, it's not bad at all, but if you look at that list, it's not particularly instructive as to HOF fates. There are dozens of HOFers with lower WAR to that point in their careers, and about three dozen players with higher WAR who missed.

Mike

1:03

Would Hamels make it through wavers with his contract? Can he be traded after the deadline ala Verlander?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

probably, but I'm not sure that the Rangers have any incentive to keep him past July 31 — he's got no long-term attachment to Texas and at most just one more year under contract, so i think he'll be easier to move, particularly with the Dodgers and Yankees possibly involved.

David

1:06

Adam Dunn's career bWAR is only 17.4...is that entirelyy a function of defense and baserunning/BA? His offensive numbers are basically exactly the same as Teixeira, who has 52 WAR. What's going on there?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Basically, yes. In terms of B-Ref defensive WAR (that's fielding runs plus positional adjustment) his -28.9 (!) is the lowest of all-time http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/yHDLw

King Jaffe Joffer

1:06

Kole Calhoun: 2014-17 averaged .260/.325/.425---2018: .147/.198/.182 we are beyond "April" & small sample sizes. Any clues/insights? Hiding an injury? SP found hole in his swing?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I don't exactly know, but you're right, something is up, and it's worth a closer look. he's been putrid.

Smokey

1:07

I have an abundance of starting pitching but could use a bat or two (7x7 H2H with the 2 extra cats as OPS and K's in batting). Who should I be asking for if I offer guys like Greinke, Nola, or Morton?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

You should be asking for somebody who knows anything about fantasy circa 2018. It ain't me, babe.

KBO Wildcard

1:08

how long until the Orioles realize that leaving Chris Davis on the DL for the rest of his contract might be better for them? Or should they maximize his at bats as the most overt tank-job ever?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I don't think the Orioles c. 2018 are the most overt tank job ever given the 1916 Athletics, and the 2011-13 Astros, none of whom had a player close to the caliber of Manny Machado for any length of time (end-stage Napoleon Lajoie doesn't count). I also know that the players' union would let the O's stash Davis on the DL for the duration of the deal. But yeah, that contract, woof.

Matt

1:12

Is Ellsbury actually this fragile, is Brian Cashman stretching the truth, or some combination of then with Brian Cashman causing Ellbury's physical injuries?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Ellsbury's long litany of injuries makes his current time on the DL more plausible, but we certainly don't know everything that's going on here. If I'm him and I'm healthy, I'm asking Cashman for a trade on a daily basis.

Mountie Votto

1:14

Why isn't Billy Hamilton running anymore?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Well, he's been dead since 1940... Oh, you mean the non-Hall of Fame Hamilton? I'm not really sure other than the fact that a) you can't steal first base, even if your OBP is below .300 and b) he's losing some playing time in what's effectively a four-man outfield.

Babe Lincoln

1:17

1916 Athletics? Please educate us, oh wise one.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

36-117 (.235) during one of the A's teardown phases. Jon Wertheim wrote about them at length for Sports Illustrated on the occasion of their centennial. https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/07/21/pathetics-1916-philadelphia-athletic...

1:19

Who would have thought that both Verlander and Scherzer would have their best seasons AFTER they left the Tigers?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

On the one hand, it's a surprise, but their spending was such that it would have been tough to justify keeping Scherzer at the time he departed, and it was clearly time to get Verlander off the books last year.

Mountie Votto

1:22

Re: Billy Hamilton, he's always had a near-.300 OBP though. He's only ATTEMPTED 11 SBs, and has 9 on the year. In the first half of last season, he was 38 for 43 in SB attempts and had a .319 OBP.

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Oh, I know. Again, I'm not really sure. Maybe the change in managers has something to do with it? Maybe he's nursing an undisclosed leg injury? It's probaly worth tugging on the sleeve of a Reds beat reporter to ask him. Tell C. Trent I sent you.

Hello

1:24

You seem like you'd be a mean drunk

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I can assure you that's most untrue. I just don't suffer fools gladly, particularly in chats or on social media.

Kiermaier's Deviated Septum

1:25

Jay, could you address the details of the Super II deadline and what it really means for prospect call ups/ control etc etc. I thank you and Vlad Jr. Thanks you.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

The basics are these: Players with three full years of service time are eligible for arbitration, as are the top 22 percent of players in the two-to-three year range; it's the latter guys who are designated Super Twos. The deadline for who makes that cutoff is not a fixed point, but you can bet each front office has somebody who's tracking it. What it means is that a team whose player misses that cutoff date (which is generally sometime in June) will get an extra half-season of service time out of the player before his salary jumps from being a function of the league minimum to something more expensive and merit-based.

It's something that the players have agreed to via the CBA, but that doesn't mean it's not prone to abuse, and in the Blue Jays' case, it's about goddamn time Vlad Jr. was called up.

Sidney Ponson

1:30

How would you asses Yadier Molina's HOF chances? Numbers don't really seem to be there, but the consensus seems to be he has significant quantifiable qualities that seperate him.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

What I wrote about Molina nearly 14 months ago still applies. Based on the metrics we have, he doesn't appear to be HOF-worthy, but his reputation and the fact that there's a lot about catcher defense/staff handling that we haven't been able to quantify means that we can't entirely dismiss the possibility that he's worthy on a statistical basis, and I do think that he'll get a good deal of support. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/06/yadier-molina-cardinals-contract-hal...

Rahul

1:32

how worried should we be about Goldschmidt?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I'm starting to worry, yeah. I've got something planned in the near future that will take a closer look at him

MortalWombat

1:32

Do you think we will see Justus Sheffield this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Yes. Domingo German isn't cutting it, Sonny Gray is a mess, and you don't know that Jordan Montgomery will remain healthy once he returns. It makes sense that the Yankees will take a look at Sheffield sometime before July 31 so as to calibrate their level of need in the starting pitcher market.

Greg

1:34

Buster also postulated that over 30 guys are having trouble keeping up with the 95+ fastballs most every reliever throws. Other than a few guys like Trout, Harper and Correa, most guys don't become FA available until close to 30 (Judge, Sanchez etc.). Is the day of the 5 plus year FA contract for hitters coming to an end?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

As a generality, I'm not sure how much truth there is to Buster's observation, but intuitively, it makes some sense, and it's been on my mind regarding Goldschmidt, because the numbers show that he's having trouble with high velo this year.

I do think we'll see some kind of tug-o-war over when players reach free agency in the bargaining leading up to the next CBA, and it could get ugly. But I think we should be braced for the likelihood that change will be incremental rather than radical — maybe it becomes five years, with arbitration for a higher % of players in the 2-3 class, but give-backs somewhere else. I wish I had a crystal ball.

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