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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/22
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Heather
3:00
Hi Jay. In what order would you guess the new HOF era committee will elect Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGriff, Whitaker and Dwight Evans?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
I don't know yet, but I would definitely say that Sosa has the lowest chance of eventual election from among this group and that McGriff would be near the highest. This is just a reminder of how stacked that ballot could be.

I'm hoping to do something that will help illustrate how hard such an election could be, soon.
Seamus
3:02
My idea: when the bases are empty, the batter-runner can decide to run the bases either clockwise or counter-clockwise, with subsequent runners following that order until the bases are empty again. Worst proposed rule change ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
I'm sure we could come up with worse if we think about it. I mean, Sam Miller once proposed putting a pit somewhere in the infield https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/30442/the-best-of-sam-...
Michael
3:03
Could you see the yankees trading Chapman at the deadline, given their depth?  Seems like it would elongate a contention window to trade to be fas, ideally get another gleyber type prospect, while not hurting the present much
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Doubt it. You can never have too much pitching, and contending teams don't trade their top relievers.
3:05
Plus I don't think there's any chance 2022-model Chapman brings back a Torres-caliber prospect. He's off to a strong start this year but we've seen the hiccups.
The Great Giambino
3:06
Now that Steven Kwan has hit his first career home run, can we preemptively pop champagne on his inevitable election to Cooperstown in 2044?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
ha! That was cool to watch yesterday. https://www.mlb.com/video/jose-berrios-in-play-run-s-to-steven-kwan
3:07
Kwan-gone
Guest
3:07
Is Shohei a top 10 SP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
on a stuff basis, hell yes. And i think on a performance basis you can justify that placement, too. His main issue is workload   — getting enough innings given his tendency to pitch deep in counts and to account for his unique circumstances. FWIW he's third in FIP among pitchers with at least 25 innings (he's at 26.1, 0.2 short of qualifying for the ERA title), and we have him in the top 10 in our Depth Charts rest-of-season WAR
Mr Red Legs
3:12
There should be a way to legally prosecute the Castellinis for theft of joy
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
they ought to be tarred and feathered.
Steve
3:13
50 years of Mets fandom has left me unable to feel joy or hope. Can you reassure me that this start is more than just a small sample illusion and this could have the makings of something promising?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
While I think the Mets are off to a very good start, I know that I should go only so far out on any limb when it comes to proclamations regarding the Mets
Nathan
3:14
Could someone sue MLB for deadening the ball if that person had bets placed with whichever gambling companies are now partnered with MLB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Doubt it, but I'm not a lawyer.
JupiterBrando
3:15
A lot of people rightly point out that the character clause is only used to keep guys out of the hall rather than put them in, but I don't as often see players pushed as Hall of Famers because of the quality of their character.

With that in mind: is Curtis Granderson a Hall of Famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I like Granderson a lot, enjoyed covering him. He had a career bWAR of 47.2 and a JAWS of 40.9, which places him 33rd among center fielders. While I and other voters might be inclined to give him a character bonus, how much should that be? Enough to vault him to 15th ahead of Jim Edmonds, with his 60.4 WAR and 51.5 JAWS? because that's about where the gray area starts ,and it includes Willie Davis and Jimmy Wynn, to say nothing of Beltran, Lofton, and Andruw higher up in the rankings. Some of them have their misdeeds but who's to say that assessments of their character wouldn't raise the standings of a few of them?
phil
3:20
Fire Joe Girardi calls a classic philadelphia overreaction or some merit to them? Do preseason contenders fire their managers this early that often?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
Contenders tend not to punt this early but my lord, how many bullpen fires can a single team have?
Rexy
3:22
Chances Machado becomes a hall of famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Probably already at least 50%, given his 47.4 bWAR early in his age-29 season. Might be worth a little experiment... stay tuned.
Guest
3:23
What the hell's going on with the Red Sox? The offense has been absolutely abysmal to watch.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
they're on my list to look at next week.
Fellow Brooklynite
3:24
IKF's luck has to run out at some point...right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
his x-stats are ringers for his actual ones, so whatever he's doing I don't think luck is the word to use.
3:26
He's not hitting the ball hard, but he has outstanding speed, and the package has some value especially in a lower-scoring environment
Andrew
3:26
What do you expect to see from Mookie Betts over, say, the next 5 seasons? He seems to be on a clear HOF track, and then I checked his B-R page and saw his top comp through age-28 is Andrew McCutchen. That gave me pause.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
guys, the age-based comps at B-Ref are a generation out of date, conceptually. They're from a time before we had any kind of defensive measures, and Mookie is elite where Cutch... was not
3:28
Betts has 50.7 career WAR and is already 24th in JAWS among RF... and 9th in peak thanks to his defensive value, 5 wins above the Hall standard. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_RF.shtml
3:29
McCutchen through his age-29 season had 37.4 WAR and he still has less than Mookie now that he's in his age-35 season (45.8). You can safely ignore those comps
Guest
3:29
What does Ohtani have to do to get in the Hall of Fame? If it was up to me, he'd be a lock already based off last year's season alone.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
i've said this before but I think that if he gets to 10 years in the majors and is still doing both things at a reasonably high level he's going to be a lock regardless of the actual WAR totals and counting stats
Can't Deny a Guest Even A Ridiculous Request
3:31
How do you see typical HOF milestones evolving if offense keeps devolving? Will 400 homers become the new 500? We're already seeing this happen with pitcher wins and strikeouts, it's unlikely we'll ever see even 250 wins again from a new player.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I don't know that people will be as focused on round-numbered milestones in the future with the major ones attained far less frequently. That said, 2,000 hits and 200 wins have long stood as de facto Hall of Fame standards and while we finally saw a modern player with fewer than that for the former (Tony Oliva) get elected, that doesn't mean the floodgates have been opened.
Re: B-Ref Age Comps
3:33
Case in point to ignore them: top comps for Joseph Daniel Votto are Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Adrian Gonzalez. So, you know, like the man said, pay them no heed.
Josh R
3:35
Did MLB bring back the old balls secretly yesterday? Looked much more like old times the way the balls were flying.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
MLB can say what they want about only one version of the baseball being used, but I don't think anybody should be surprised if Meredith Wills' dismantling of baseballs that people send her again reveals otherwise.
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