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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/7/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon and Happy Bartolo Colon Home Run Day to you all!
It's the fifth anniversary of this magnificent shot https://www.mlb.com/video/colon-s-first-career-homer-c669896583
2:02
2:03
My piece on the Angels' DFA of Albert Pujols just went up a short time ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-angels-finally-bite-the-bullet-by-cutt...
It follows a piece I did just yesterday on how bad their defense has been https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-angels-rotation-woes-have-a-lot-to-do-...
Anyway, on with the show!
Chase
2:04
How can rooting for a team that has Mike "freakin" Trout, Shohei "freakin" Ohtani, Anthony "freakin" Rendon, and now, apparently, Jared Walsh and Dylan Bundy be so effing frustrating? The pitching and defense have obviously been bad, but holy moly, this franchise is the most infuriating.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
As I noted in my Pujols piece, the Angels had one of the great drafts hauls ever in 2009, the year they chose Trout, and they've been dreadful in that area since, with David Fletcher's 6.8 WAR the most they've gotten from anybody for themselves and it's not even close. The extent to which the Angels will spend big money but fail to develop homegrown talent reminds me of the Buzzie Bavasi years in the late 1970s and early '80s, when they traded away a boatload of talent that I saw play at Triple-A Salt Lake. Willie Aikens, Dickie Thon, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper, etc.
Rance Mulliniks!
Marshall
2:06
Willie Mays had 6 of his 10 best (by WAR) seasons after turning 30, including his three best. How many of Mike Trout's best years will come after this year (his age-29 season)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Fewer than 6 out of 10 but holy hell is he off to a flying start this year, which I think will windup as one of his best.
Joe
2:06
Can you describe what is included in Pujol's "personal services contract" post-retirement with the Angels?  I realize franchise players regularly make appearances, do the Old Timers stuff, fantasy camps, and Spring Training roving instructor stuff, but will Pujols really command that 10 years after he retires at $1M a year?  Is this in hopes he enters the HoF (somehow) as an Angel, as opposed to a Cardinal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
I haven't seen the clause but you now those "special advisor" roles? This is usually the way it works. While I think Arte Moreno hopes Pujols enters the Hall as an Angel, there's no way in hell anybody at the Hall is going to let that happen.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:08
With this being the fifth anniversary of Bartolo Colon Dinger Day, who is your favorite bad-bodied (or dad-bodied) major leaguer, and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Fernando Valenzuela
WinTwins0410
2:09
Jay, if Albert Pujols never had played a game with the Angels and ended his career after his time with the Cards, was he still a Hall of Famer?  80-plus WAR, 445 HRs, 2,000 hits -- I'd say so.  Curious your take.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
I don't know that he would have mustered 75% in his first year but by JAWS he'd have ranked 4th among 1B at 74.2! He was Mike Trout before Mike Trout.
Brian
2:12
Jim Edmonds on Cardinals' broadcasts keeps talking about how pitchers aren't throwing any harder than they were 20 years ago, its just measured different in the Statcast era.  Any merit to his argument?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Jim may have run into the outfield wall one too many times, because unless we expect there to have been a dip between 2001 and 2008, when we started getting PitchF/X data, his statement holds no water. The average fastball in 2008 was 90.3 mph, whereas this year it's 93.3, and it's never decreased from one year to the next in that span.
John b
2:15
The tigers DHs are hitting .117.  Could Pujols or Willie Mays be an upgrade ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Jesus, Felipe, and Matty Alou, it's bleak. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .098/.179/.213 while splitting time at DH and 1B, and if he weren't chasing both the 3,000 hit and 500 homer milestones, I suspect he'd get the Pujols treatment as well.
Jake
2:16
I saw your doppelganger in my town ball game last night. No question, just a comment. Your unknown twin played a mean third.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
Third base wasn't my best position, that's for sure, but both my father and especially my grandfather — who played at the U of Maryland and was allegedly offered a professional contract — were very good at the hot corner.
BT
2:17
Mets firing their hitting coaches - Good or bad move
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Scapegoating hitting coaches is a time-honored pastime of dysfunctional organizations, and the Mets showed that even with the Wilpons gone, they are still dysfunctional as hell. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-make-a-mess-of-their-offensive-st...
Tel
2:18
A few weeks ago I had to waste several hours with our annual online compliance training.  At the beginning of several of the modules it gave instruction for how to complete the course if you were using a JAWS viewer.  I smell a multimillion dollar copyright and/or trademark infringement lawsuit and retirement to Fiji in your future.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
do they have baseball in Fiji? Does the country need a modern-day Lefty O'Doul? Asking for a friend.
Elliot
2:20
I just think it’s neat that Acuña is playing so well while still getting extremely unlucky. His BABIP is now below .300!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
So weird. I know Dan Szymborski is working on a zBABIP (expected BABIP) piece and I'd imagine Acuña will be mentioned
Heynong
2:21
Lux for Huira... is that too crazy? Thought process being if LA’s magic hasn’t worked on Lux yet, and maybe they know it won’t. And maybe they can figure out what’s wrong with Huira.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I can't see either of those franchises making a knee-jerk move based on a top prospect struggling to adapt to the majors.
Justin
2:23
When will LAD finally hand over the 2b gig to Michael Busch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
... which doesn't mean that the Dodgers should sit idly by while Lux struggles. Sending him to Triple-A and getting some production from the spot should be a priority given the team's struggles. A look at Busch — whose defense is likely to be shaky there, but that can be worked around, if second baseman Max Muncy can — would seem to be part of that menu.
Pat
2:26
What would a hypothetical John Means trade look like right now? Comparable package to Snell? Worse?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I don't know what it would look like but Snell had already won a Cy Young by the time he was traded, and he has the cost certainty of a below-market contract that runs through 2023. So even if the years of control are the same, I don't think the package for Means would be nearly as valuable.
Jay T
2:29
Ramon Laureano's stat cast numbers look good - supporting his current production.  Is it reasonable to project him as a 25+ hr and 20+ sb type player annually?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Our Depth Charts projection for him is at 20 HR/14 SB for this, his age-26 season, and ZiPS sees him as getting to 25 homers, but it's the running game that's the question.
Heynong
2:31
Knowing the Brewers are low on trade resources, any thoughts on the idea of trying to swing a trade with Miami for Aguilar and Rojas? Upgrades at two problem spots.Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
The Brewers seem to be pretty aggressive and creative when it comes to deadline deals so I'd imagine those guys would be among their potential targets. The question is what that would cost them, and I don't have a great sense of what they're willing to give up except that it won't be Hiura.
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