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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/7/21
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John b
2:32
What are we to make of the Pirates?  They seem very competitive and their most expensive player, Polanco, is terrible.  If you strip him away they have a payroll of $33 million playing .500 ball
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
eh, they're 13-17 with a -29 run differential and an 84 wRC+. They don't look much better via BaseRuns or their rest-of-season projection. Polanco, man, what a bummer of an outcome, but I don't see the aggregate of what else is going on there to be particularly encouraging.
WinTwins0410
2:35
Jay, who is the best starting pitcher in your Hall of Very Good? IE, who is the single best starting pitcher in your view who nonetheless falls short of the Hall of Fame for you? (Let’s exclude juicers/suspected juicers, including Kevin Brown and Andy Pettitte, and for the purposes of this argument, let’s also exclude Curt Schilling.) Is it Rick Reuschel? Tommy John? Jim McCormick? Dock Ellis? (I kid about that last one.) Someone else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Tough one but I'd say Reuschel, Tommy John, and Orel Hershiser in the mix, and my line would probably have Tiant, Cone, Saberhagen, and Stieb (plus Brown) in the Hall.
Kyle B
2:38
I can’t but feel like this is a season the Yankees make a blockbuster trade at the deadline...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
They're gonna need something. Probably a starter and a reliever and maybe a backup catcher.
Andrew
2:38
Hey Jay, this is random, but any thoughts on the likelihood of the Yankees playing Stanton in the field this year? I remember reading something in ST about him taking reps in the outfield, but thus far they haven't put him there in an actual game. I know they're concerned with his injury history, but by the metrics, it doesn't look like he was ever terrible out there...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
While he's hitting the way he is, I don't think they're going to entertain that notion. It's not that he's bad out there, but they've had such a hard time keeping him healthy and productive that anything to upset the equilibrium — even him picking up a Wilson catalog to look at gloves — is probably off limits.
Senzel stalled out?
2:41
Have injuries sapped Senzel's future value? He had a 70 FV bat once, any upside left?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
He's got a .298 xBA and .483 xSLG, so I wouldn't bury him just yet, but it sure would be nice to see more out of him.
Charley
2:43
Will Snell ever pitch 6innings ever again? Have him in dynasty with QS. He's so useless.. can you tell me how the heck did he win his Cy young? Cheated his way??
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
Snell's big problem is efficiency. Even at his best he was walking ~9% of batters, and he's up to 12.8% so far this year, that while averaging 4.14 pitches per plate appearance, which is 8th in the NL. Couple the inefficiency with the history of arm injuries and you have a guy who's gonna be on a short leash.
Not Sandy Alderson
2:46
This is pedantic, but could you answer a payroll question? The Mets DFA'd Brad Brach earlier in the season, paying his whole salary. When the Royals selected Brach to the roster, even though he didn't play, was that pro-rated salary for the season subtracted from the Mets' luxury tax commitments for the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
The only thing the Royals pay and the Mets recoup is the minimum salary prorated to however many days he's being paid by another team.
Questioner
2:47
I know it’s super early, but have you given any thought about what Ohtani’s eventually hall of fame case could look like? I feel like he’s probably the sort of player who should be considered beyond just his JAWS score.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
No idea what his case might look like but I do have one precedent in the Hall in Monte Ward (John Montgomery Ward), who split his career between pitching and position play, mainly shortstop. His JAWS, based on his best seven seasons combining his pitching and hitting, is 64.0/41.3/52.7, which is damn respectable for a 19th century player playing shorter schedules.
Dalton Wilcox
2:52
Tim Hudson? Dave Stieb?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Mentioned Stieb. Hudson's definitely a HOVG-not-HOF guy, and same with Buehrle and Pettitte if we're talking about current candidates.
Curtis
2:53
How much of Dustin May's "breakout" possibly contributed to his injury?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
I don't know that it was particularly the breakout so much as it was the fact that he's such a hard thrower to begin with. A widely circulated 2016 study found that throwing high-velo fastballs about half the time increases the risk of needing TJ, and May certainly fits that profile.  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105827461600023...
Mr. Burrito
2:56
Was/is Albert's age accurate? His peak came early (and lasted a long time), as did the start of the decline. All that said, he's one of my favorite all time players. Spectacularly great at the obvious stuff and sneaky great at things you might not notice (baserunning, 1B defense, etc.)....
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
People have been theorizing this for years, and anecdotally, the shape of his career fits the theory, but nobody has ever produced any proof. If his age was falsified, it was as bulletproof a job as has been executed in baseball history
baseball enjoyer
2:58
JV called a press conference for this afternoon. Retirement announcement or routine update?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Dalton Wilcox
2:59
Is Kris Bryant forcing the cubs to play him in CF some kind of plan he and Borass concocted to extract more money out of some poor owner?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Positional versatility is very valuable, albeit in ways that are tough to quantify.    Also, to see what they've done to the roster I believe that that the Ricketts family is MLB's poorest ownership group.
Worried Mets Fan
3:00
What do you make of Lindor's horrendous start, couple with a down (half) year last year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Addressed in previous Mets link above. Seems to be mechanically out of whack, might be listening to advice from too many directions
Isolated Thinker
3:01
Not the same circumstances but the Pujols thing reminds me of what happened with Cespedes last year.  Player benched.  Player upset.  Player immediately off the roster.  Did Pujols act unprofessionally and come across as me-first rather than team-first in your opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
I haven't read anything that characterized Pujols' behavior that way or as anything less than professionalism. He believes he's swinging the bat better than his numbers indicate (and by Statcast, he has a point) and that he should be playing every day. The Angels feel otherwise.

Nobody ever accused Pujols of not showing up and putting in the work. Cespedes... let's just say that during his past few years that attendance, work ethic, and accountability have not been his strongest suits.
Mr. Burrito
3:04
Favorite Hll of the Very Good pitchers should include your favorite bad body -- Fernando!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
A fair point. Added.
Guest
3:05
Which team do you think is most likely to take an (in my opinion) ill-advised flyer on Pujols, perhaps as a "veteran presence for the young guys" or something similar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
I ran down nearly a dozen options in today's piece and outside of the Reds losing Votto for a month and not having an obvious fill-in, I can't see any that really justifies the trouble.
The Stranger
3:06
Wasn’t there an article where Pujols talked about hitting against Octavio Dotel as a teen and it worked out that he was 3 years older than he’s listed as if he remembered it right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
David Samson said it. David Samson says lots of things.
diadem
3:10
Where does Paddack fit in when he comes back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
Probably back in the rotation. They've had some injuries, still have concerns about Lamet, and I can't see them rushing Gore to the majors
Tommy2
3:14
Is there a meaningful difference in performance of hitters and pitchers in day games vs. night games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I haven't looked to see the extent to which it holds up but it's generally believed that hitters have the advantage during the day because they see the ball better.
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