JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:03

Good afternoon, and greetings from Wellfleet, Massachusetts, where I'm just beginning my 10-day stay — working the rest of the week, then on vacation — but contending with some nasty weather that temporarily knocked out our Internet connection this morning. Hopefully it holds out for the next 90 minutes or so; check @jay_jaffe on Twitter in case there's a sudden gap in the conversation here.

Justin

12:04

I know it's early, but what's wrong with Machado? You mentioned on the pod Manny is not doing damage with 1st pitches? Anything else you've noticed? As a Padres fan I hope you don't have to write a piece about his struggles anytime soon...

Jay Jaffe

12:08

I don't really have a good answer for this yet; he's on my list of players to look into, but something else usually pops up, perhaps because I'm still not clear about what's going on. He's barreling the ball less but still averaging above 90 mph in terms of EV. There's a big gap between his xwOBA (.375) and wOBA (.330) despite slightly better sprint speed, so it may be something of a run of bad luck.

v2micca

12:08

We have generally examined the amount of run support that a Pitcher receives. But is there value in more closely examining the defensive support for his specific innings. Instead of looking at a team's aggregate UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed, instead breaking it down to the UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed for that pitcher's specific innings? I just wonder when we see a pitcher under or over performing his peripherals for a stretch how much it might correlate to his defense over or under performing their aggregate defensive metrics for his innings during that period.

Jay Jaffe

12:10

given how sketchy defensive metrics are in small sample sizes, I am skeptical that working with UZR and DRS in such increments would give you more signal than noise. BABIP, sequencing, and batted ball info (including Statcast now) give us a lot of information to help tease out the gap between a pitcher's actual and expected results.

Brood550

12:10

If and when the Mets go into sale mode. Who's untouchable?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

If I'm GM, everything is up for grabs except Alonso, deGrom, Conforto and maybe McNeil, though that doesn't mean I'd sell low on Syndergaard, Diaz, or Nimmo.

Mariners Fan

12:14

Jay thank you for hosting the chat. Edwin Encarnacion is having his best season since 2015 and is playing passable defense at first base. He has no future for him in Seattle but given his profile doesn't have a ton of trade value. Do you think he gets traded and if so where?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

I do think EE gets dealt but his destination and the return will depend upon how much $ the Mariners absorb. Milwaukee (where Jesus Aguilar has struggled), Texas (if they remain in contention) and even Cleveland (which needs all the help it can get offensively) make some sense. Cripes, I'd play him at 2B (as he did on May 10 versus the Yankees for one inning) instead of Kipnis given the latter's bat death.

Kevin

12:18

What's up with Josh Donaldson? His quality of contact is great, but his results are anything but. Is it simply bad luck?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

he's averaging a scorching 93.0 mph for his EV, but for the second year in a row, his groundball rate is in the 45% range and his GB/FB ratio is above 1.3. My initial impression is that he's not elevating the ball often enough. Plus he's pulling the ball more than 50% of the time, and losing hits to the shift. https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=5038&position=3B&sp...

Bread Gardner

12:22

Any thoughts about FiveThirtyEight's Elo-style team ratings? I don' think FanGraphs has anything quite comparable.

Jay Jaffe

12:25

Don't bring me down, Bruce! ELO is somewhat underr — oh, wait. Conceptually I get what Elo is trying to do but I've never really looked at what 538 is doing with it in the baseball realm.

12:25

Now that it's mid-June, is it safe to say Dansby Swanson has figured something out?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

mostly, though given that he's just about reached last year's HR total in half as many games, while his BABIP and K/BB ratio remain virtually unchanged, I wonder if it's just the juicier baseball or just a correction from last year's unexpectedly bad showing

Brood550

12:28

At what point do teams with weak or non-existent farm systems have to start thinking about trading controllable young talent? Also, along that line what type of return would trading say like a Juan Soto type net in today's game?

Jay Jaffe

12:32

I can sort of understand where a team in dire financial straits might trade a guy who's in his arb years, but trading a player like Soto — over whom you have club control though 2024 — is the equivalent of chewing off a limb to escape. You *really* have to re-think what you're trying to accomplish and whether the cost is worth it. The most likely outcome is a bloody and painful mess

Enquiring mind

12:32

Do you ever wonder if MLB umpires play fantasy baseball with some of these calls, or are they not allowed? And would it affect them in anyway, Just always been curious.

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I don't know this for certain but I'd bet (haha) that they're not allowed to play fantasy baseball. And no, I don't wonder about that even when they make bad calls. The job is incredibly hard to do with the naked eye and the power to use technology to second-guess the most hair-splitting calls. The problem is that umpiring isn't a meritocracy, so we get some mediocre ones who persist and come to occupy very high profile spots in marquee events.

Pat

12:36

Does Verlander have one of the all time weird seasons going? .152 batting average against & only 28 runs allowed in 100 innings, but, 17 HR's? It's like the only time he allows a run, it's on a HR.

Jay Jaffe

12:42

It's a weird season, but then again so is everything when you've got record home run rates. He's "only" 11th out of 84 in ERA - FIP differential and 26th in HR/FB rate. I think his season merits a closer look and will plan something for when I return to regularly scheduled programming.

In the words of the irascible Francis from Stripes, "You just made the list, buddy."

12:42

What's up Jay? What are your thoughts on Caleb Smith for ROS? Recently dropped by the top team in my league, and I'm trying to figure out why. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

12:46

He's giving up a lot of homers, and has the third-lowest GB/FB ratio among qualifiers, but in that ballpark, I would bet on his very high HR/FB rate regressing, particularly because his Statcast numbers don't suggest he's getting hit particularly hard. I think he'd be worth picking up.

ryan

12:46

re: Machado's issues......he is striking out at a clip that's (statistically) significantly higher than last year, perhaps that's something to look into....chasing, more swings and misses...?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

yes, his swinging strike rate is a career high 11.9 %,and his K rate is much higher as well (from 14.7% to 21.3%). So yes, a closer look at his zone and pitch breakdowns would seem to be in order.

Ralph Rowdie

12:48

Who ends their career with a higher WAR, Scherzer or Kershaw? Who ends up with the better overall HOF credentials?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

Kershaw is 3 years younger and has a 7.5 bWAR and 5.0 JAWS lead. He would also appear to be better positioned to win a championship soon given the direction of the two pitchers' respective organizations as well. Even given their recent workload differences, I don't see enough to put Scherzer past Kershaw in that context. I think they both will make the Hall and would vote for both even if they never threw another pitch

Ginger Slugger

12:55

Is there a scenario where C. Frazier remains in the lineup when Judge and Stanton are back?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

yes, because Brett Gardner isn't hitting much for the second straight season. The gap between Gardner and Frazier in defense and the big LF in Yankee Stadium will still mean Gardy gets some playing time. It could be interesting if they are indeed all healthy at once

Bend it like Mandowescence

12:58

Jay, thank you as always for giving us your time so generously.

I wonder if you'd like to offer an opinion on something my friends and I have been debating for a few weeks ... do you think that removing the current third strike call on a ball bunted foul have an appreciable effect on the game?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

As in, would it bring back more bunting? I'm not seeing it having much impact given how hard it is to bunt well.

Tom

1:01

is goldy done?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

I'm not ready to panic given the way he pulled himself out of last year's slow start — we're not in Joey Votto territory yet, with back-to-back downturns — but let's just say I'm glad I don't owe him $130 million over the next five seasons.

Puddin Head

1:02

Are you buying Kingery's breakout? Can he lead the Phillies in wRC+ this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I don't see him maintaining a .613 SLG and am skeptical he'll lead the Phillies in wRC+ over a full season, particularly while walking 4.2% of the time. I think he's worth playing every day at this point, and expect him to be pretty good going forward.

1:05

Would "Truist Park" immediately be in the bottom-three of stadium names?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

yes. SMH

1:07

Julio Teheran has been excellent aside from a couple bad innings. What's different besides not giving up HRs?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Slightly higher groundball rate, better HR/FB, and less trouble with the curve. Batters slugged 1.130 (!) against the pitch last year and .540 the year before; they're at .364 now, albeit in just 11 PA ending with the pitch. SSS all over the board with those numbers, and I don't see huge differences all of the place.

Super

1:12

Where is the line for a so called super team? .550, .600, .650? There are 5 teams above .600 so that might be an overall line. And big gaps below

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