JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/14/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:47

I have time to hit both places. Usually Arnold's is lunch on the day we rent bikes and Moby Dick's a dinner one night.

Magician_531

12:47

Trout isn't just having a good season. He isn't just having a good season compared to himself. He is on pace for the best season of all time (bWAR flavour). Even if you factor in the fact that Ruth's seasons were shorter, he is still on pace for the second greatest season ever. What does he have to do to get people to notice him? He isn't even leading in All-Star votes.

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I'd say he's getting more notice this year than ever before thanks in part to his own work and in part to Ohtani, and I never sweat ASG vote totals, particularly preiminary ones

ben

12:48

Growing up, who was your favorite team? Favorite player?

Jay Jaffe

12:49

I grew up a third-generation Dodgers fan (grandfather born in Brooklyn but living in Washington state a good decade before the team left). Davey Lopes, Reggie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela and Pedro Guerrero were my favorites.

12:49

Read Sullivan's piece on Max Muncy. Are you a believer?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

Given what the Dodgers have done with Justin Turner and Chris Taylor in recent years, and what other hitters have done by similarly changing their approaches, I believe that Max Muncy is going to remain a productive hitter, if not necessarily a superstar-level one.

Aaron Bummer

12:51

It seems increasingly likely that the Mariners will have the opportunity to eliminate a 100-win Red Sox/Yankees team in a single game with James Paxton on the mound. I have a problem with that, mainly due to the fact that such a system significantly distorts the true talent level of the entire team (as if baseball isn't random enough already). Do you?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

The playoffs have been doing this for decades, with increasingly greater degrees of enabling imbalances as the fields get larger. If the Yankees or Red Sox don't want to risk being eliminated by James Paxton, they should avoid putting themselves in the position of losing a best-of-5 or best-of-7 to the Mariners.

Even before that, the playoffs have always been a different animal than the regular season because of the way off days change the % of innings that teams can put in the hands of their best pitchers. Bitch about it all you want but that's not changing.

skysbat

12:55

Do you think Soto is for real? Or in for a regression? And as a follow-up Soto or Gleyber?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I think Soto is both for real AND in for a regression. He very much seems like he belongs in the majors, if not necessarily producing at Next Mike Trout levels.

On an age-to-level basis, the two year difference between Soto and Trout is certainly meaningful, but Gleyber's long-term value as an infielder probably gives him the edge in my eyes, especially if Soto is a left fielder.

MLB Expansion??

12:58

I am all for the opportunities and jobs that could be created from expansion. However, there are currently too many bad teams. If there was an overload of talent on most teams and were unable to get playing time, then expansion would certainly be warranted. As is do you think expansion would water down the MLB product and create more bad teams?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

That there are too many bad teams is a function of the skewed incentives created by the CBA and revenue sharing and salary structures — many of these bad teams are intentionally bad, spending minimally now so as to ensure profitability while they retool/rebuild. The talent pool is probably large enough to support 2 more teams.

Magician_531

1:00

With all of the advanced metrics that are creeping into the game, do you think that we will start seeing baseball statistics displayed as actual statistics alongside standard deviations and whatnot? Stats would be more useful if they could be used as, well, stats. It would be a lot easier to compare players' numbers if I could tell if there was actually a significant statistical difference between them and perform z-tests, etc. Do you see this type of thing entering baseball writing and stat keeping culture any time soon?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Your average fan doesn't give a shit about z scores. Shit, the average American is barely able to do simple math given the decline of the education system in this country. It's hard enough getting hardcore fans to accept OPS and defensive metrics. Tell somebody that Player A is 5 runs above average and Player 5 is 5 runs below is tough enough to follow without saying, oh, those are +/-10 run estimates given the small size of the samples

The portion of people who want baseball to feel like a college-level stats class is at least three places to the right of the decimal. Having spent 15 years engaging with the public on this, I think the verdict is quite clear that it takes generations just to accept the smallest move towards inclusion of new stats. </rant>

1:05

Who are your picks for the NL playoffs, as of today? Any changes to your pre-season predictions?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I stand by Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers as division winners. I had Cardinals and D-backs as my wild card teams, today I'd take Braves and Brewers, probably.

Andy

1:11

Okay. To save me from googling... What's the issue with the 1949 Yankees?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Nothing in particular, just plucked that at more or less random. They were an all-white team that featured Joe DiMaggio, who while certainly one of the all-time greats was very staid and undemonstrative on the field.

Mike

1:12

Thoughts on Kyle Gibson as a moveable piece at the deadline? Or just the Twins retooling in general?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Given that the Twins entirely didn't break up the band last year when they were below .500, i'm not sure they would do so this year, and it seems to me that Gibson having finally turned into the type of starting pitcher who can miss bats — something historically in short supply on that team — I don't see him as a guy they'd trade.

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

1:15

Are we better than the Royals? Serious question.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

No. there are certainly a handful of MLB-worthy players in Scranton, some who might even be better than whoever is occupying their spot in KC, but every minor league team has a lot of filler that would be thoroughly overmatched in MLB.

Can't read good

1:16

I always thought "pulling a Wade Boggs" meant drinking like 60 beers on a cross-country flight, or whatever that rumor was. Glad I didn't miss the chat!

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Pulling a Wade Boggs could also mean breaking out a knuckleball on mop-up duty, riding a police horse during a championship celebration for the archrivals of the team that drafted and developed you... these are good topics.

Moltar

1:17

What kind of trade value does a balky Cespedes have right now? We have to assume the Wilpons have no interest in picking up much salary.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Almost none, without throwing in considerable salary.

1:18

Best (or most underrated) sandwich toppings?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Not necessarily on the same sandwich, but whole grain mustard, pickles, cucumber and hot or yellow peppers are all excellent additions to the right sandwich

Slurve

1:19

One of the main reasons sports are so entertaining is the fact that the "best" team doesn't always win. In fact, those are some of the best moments... Miracle on Ice, Villanova 1985, etc.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

In the Selig era, MLB once and for all decided that it wanted more of a tournament-style postseason format such as the NCAA where David could topple Goliath, if not in the championship then at least in an earlier round. Hence the move from 4 teams to 8 and then 10.

Sleepy

1:21

It seems increasingly likely that Cleveland will have the opportunity to play postseason baseball largely due to the fact that they get a whopping 76 games against the Twins/Tigers/Royals/White Sox. I have a problem with that, mainly due to the fact that such a system significantly distorts the true talent level of the entire team (as if baseball isn't random enough already). Do you?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I'm pro-unbalanced schedule both because the travel demands on players are already too high and because if you are competing for a division flag you should be doing so most often against your closest rivals. If that makes the wild card - a side door entry into the postseason — an unequal chase, so be it. Better than than a balanced schedule with more travel and less chance for teams to control their own destinies by beating their closest rivals.

RIch W.

1:23

Expansion question: if two more teams are added, is Charlotte in the conversation?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

It sounds as though they're certainly among the top choices. Based on Jayson Stark's most recent column at The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/390737/2018/06/13/stark-how-mlb-expansion-coul...) and my own previous work in this area, it seems as though Charlotte, Portland, Montreal and San Antonio (or maybe Austin) are probably the top 4, not necessarily in that order.

Kyle

1:27

Two Mets questions for you. Does Nimmo continue to hit for power or revert back to a disciplined eye with eh pop? Does Lugo and his increased curve usage keep having success?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

based on what Travis Sawchik recently wrote (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nimmo-is-finding-his-power/) with regards to his change in launch angle and groundball rate, I'm a believer that Nimmo can continue to hit for some power while maintaining his plate discipline. And I certainly thinK Lugo is worth a longer rotation look right now

Grant

1:29

How should we use JAWS when assessing a player's HOF candidacy? Anyone above average is a no-doubter, I assume, but how far below average can one be and still be a worthy candidate?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

JAWS isn't meant to be a binary yes/no tool. it's a sophisticated first-cut mechanism, but you always want to consider other things such as the postseason, historical importance, reasons for career interruptions, and so on. As a general rule of thumb I think a non-reliever who's inside of 10 points from the JAWS standard is somebody who's probably worth investigating in greater detail, if only to understand where he comes up short compared to the guys who are in.

Johnny

1:32

What do you like best and least about the HOF museum in Cooperstown?

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