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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/14/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
Least: that it's a pain in the ass to get to even given that I live in Brooklyn, and that there's not, like an Ommegang stand in the museum where I can buy a beer to drink while I walk around. I mean WTF???

Best: The Whole New Ballgame exhibit, the research library, and the plaque gallery in the dead of winter when one can be the only person in the entire room for a good long stretch of time.
Sonny
1:34
Anecdotally you seem to attract the most interesting questions in your chats. I don't know how to interpret that as anything but a positive reflection of the work you do
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
I'm not sure if that's true but thank you. I'm glad you enjoy the chats and the occasional forays onto more esoteric areas!
Chris
1:34
I assume the lack of a <rant> tag at the beginning of your response to proper statistics means that you've been ranting indefinitely, and that's now how I will imagine you from now on ... baseball's Frank Costanza
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
That works.
Braves fan
1:35
What team will deGrom and Machado be on August 1st?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
Mets and Indians
Jonny
1:35
Between Cabrera and Beltre, who do you think will reach 500 HRs first?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
Cabrera given that he's under contract for 5 more years. It wouldn't surprise me if Beltre retired at season's end or gave it one more year at most.
HereForTheFood
1:36
What is the best argument against JAWS that you've received over the years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
The fact that estimates of defensive value are just that, estimates, and we'll never have enough data from older eras to get better ones. To a lesser extent, the same goes for baserunning value.
Bo
1:38
How much has Harper's slow 2018 campaign hurt his offseason contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
One NL team is apparently out of the bidding. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/06/12/mi...
John Kreese
1:39
Will you follow the World Cup?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Yes. I can't find the time to invest in either foreign or domestic soccer otherwise, but I will watch the **** out of the World Cup. Uruguay is my default rooting interest based on the fact that I loved my visit there in 2008 (a Tony Bourdain-inspired side jaunt to Montevideo, RIP) and what Diego Forlan and company did in 2010, but I can enjoy just about any game, and it's fun to spend time and talk about the games with two of my closest friends who know a whole lot more about the sport than I do
Kev
1:41
In regards to fixing some issues with balls in play, can't the MLB just lower the mound, reducing strikeouts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
I don't think it's that simple. Lowering the mound could make it harder for pitchers, and put more stresses on arms.
Jsto
1:42
The Brewers have the best record in the NL; why aren’t the considered the favorite to win the NL Central?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:43
Their run differential is not as good as some of the other teams, and run differential (and Pythag records) generally correlate better with future success than actual success — that and the projection systems all suggest they have less talent than other teams and by the way, have you seen their starting pitching lately?
Kosch
1:44
How is the defensive component of WAR measured for the old timers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
It uses Total Zone, which IIRC starts with how often a team converted a ball in play into an out, and what the average number of plays made at each position was in a given league, then throws in adjustments for opposition hitting, and pitcher and batter handedness, and more when available.
Jonny
1:47
Do you envision ever including postseason value into JAWS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:50
not likely. I look at a postseason WPA spreadsheet Dan Szymborski sent me a few years ago sometimes, and I absolutely think it's worth considering postseason performance — one can't understand why some guys are enshrined without it. But it's also worth remembering that such opportunities have a whole lot to do with the quality of one's teammates, and what JAWS does is an attempt at a more context-neutral approach, which is going in the other direction.
Ghost of Frank Menechino
1:51
Does Mussina eventually get voted into the HOF? If he does, does Schilling have a chance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:52
I think they both get in before their eligibility lapses. Mussina 2-3 years, Schilling closer to the end of his run in 2022.
1:54
OK folks, I've got some sun, sand, oysters and Mayflower Porter to enjoy, and one more article to write before I can call this a true vacation. Thanks for stopping by this week! There's no chat next week as I'll be en route to Denver on Thursday, but I hope to meet some of you at our official event on June 22. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-meetup-denver-june-22/
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