JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/16/20

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. It looks like we're in a dark place today as far as the 2020 season is concerned, but I'm hearing a bit more optimism this morning (and afternoon) than I did last night, mainly because Manfred and the owners have put themselves in an untenable position and something has to give.

STT Fan

2:03

what do you think is the % chance we see MLB this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

I still think it's above 50%. There's just too much money for it not to happen, but man, getting a season off the ground has been and will continue to be ugly

Robert

2:04

Is Manfred somehow worse than selig?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

Been thinking about this a lot, and in some ways, it's like trying to choose your least favorite child from among two failsons.

That's the easy answer. The reality is that one has to remember that the commissioner isn't an independent operator or neutral party. He serves as the representative of the owners, and so implicit in his actions is that he has the backing of three-quarters of them needed to stay in power.

For all of the dark places that Bud Selig took baseball, he was very skilled at marshaling a consensus among his fellow owners, satisfying their very disparate needs among big- and small-market owners, labor hawks and doves, et cetera, which is why he was able to stay in power so long and effect so much change.

Manfred doesn't seem to have that knack, at least to the same degree, but it may also be true that he's working with a worse set of owners — ones that realize they can take their teams into the tank without worrying about whether they'll make a profit, and so on.

Guest

2:11

Jay, first off great job on Long Gone Summer. Second, who do we suspect are the 6 owners that don't want to have a season are? OAK, CHC, LAA, PIT for sure, right? Who are the other two?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

Figuring out who the hardliners are — and Ken Rosenthal has said eight, which makes more sense than the six, because that's enough to block a deal — should be easier than it is. I've heard that Arte Moreno is one of them, which is odd until you consider the massive contracts he's got to pay out. The Cubs, based on all the Ricketts' money comments over the past year, may be one of them. I've heard rumors about the Rockies, and it stands to reason the Mets are always looking for ways not to spend. The White Sox, given Jerry Reinsdorf's long history of hardline stances towards labor, have to be among them. But I'm just spitballing here, going off rumors rather than hard reporting.

Bob

2:15

did Manfred f-up so badly that he gets canned? Or the PA demands and gets his resignation?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

Pfft. He works for the owners, and this miserable cul de sac is apparently what enough of them want. The players asking for his resignation would only harden the owners' resolve to keep him.

Guest

2:16

Thoughts on the Big Mac, Sosa docu?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

You could say I had a few https://blogs.fangraphs.com/long-gone-summer-refuses-to-bury-mcgwire-s...

2:19

Mainly, while I have some minor nits to pick, I enjoyed the doc and was glad to have played a small part – we've gotten enough Steroid Era Was Bad lectures over the past two decades already. I see a number of people critical over how much less of Sosa there was than McGwire, which isn't something I felt strongly about when I watched, but I wonder if I should have had a more critical eye on that balance.

Max

2:20

What is your sense on where the public is, siding with owners or players or still equally distributing blame?

Jay Jaffe

2:22

I see more support for the players than I expected, which I chalk up more to the anticharisma of Rob Manfred than the messaging of the union. But I still see too many fans blaming the players first, as though they don't deserve workplace rights or fair compensation for their skills and — particularly important here — the risks they're assuming by playing during a pandemic.

A Boy Named Yu

2:22

With the short season, which player has the best chances of hitting .400 for "the year"?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

If I had to guess, it's probably somebody like DJ LeMahieu or Jeff McNeil, a high-average, low-strikeout hitter who got his AVG up to the .340s or .350s last year because of a particularly red-hot stretch.

Zonk

2:26

Heading out to Pleasant Point this year? I hear alot of folks are staying away....Mac's is open, but alot of places looking at a grim summer, especialy the galleries

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I actually just arrived in Wellfleet yesterday. Not gonna be the same as our usual annual trips but just having more space and child care (in the form of my saintly mother-in-law) for the kiddo to roam, and some great seafood to eat, will be enough. Prior to the drive yesterday, it was over 3 months since I had been on anything with wheels — I'd been walking within about a 2.5-mile radius since the beginning of March.

Mike Ortman

2:28

It’s funny how once you’re invested in a player’s HOF chances how bad you want the season to continue just so they don’t lose a season. Who do you think is more deserving at Catcher: Yadi or Buster?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I'm far more supportive of the idea that Posey — a former MVP, batting champ, and outstanding pitch framer — has a strong Hall case than Molina, who never had the offense to be in that class (but who has championships and pitch framing in common). I think the outage hurts the former more; the latter has less time remaining, but isn't going to add much to a case that depends a whole lot on softer factors than Posey's does.

I wrote about both, as well as several other active players with Hall candidacies on the horizon, here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-2/ as part of a three-part series; you can change the last digit to get to the other two parts.

Quarantino Martinez

2:32

Even if owners do lose some money in 2020 (a big if, imo), surely it's good for their longterm finances to have baseball thrive.

Jay Jaffe

2:32

yes.

Jimmy

2:33

Do you think Rob Manfred is buying time (two weeks?) until he can enact a 50-game season without the players filing for grievance?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

That was a view put forth on Twitter by Trevor Bauer in this thread (and perhaps others elsewhere, but he did the "show your work" part), and it certainly makes some sense. There's too much time on the calendar to impose 50 games while claiming you've also made a good faith effort to play as many games as possible

So, Rob, explain to us how you can be 100% sure that there’s going to be baseball but not confident there will be baseball at the same time? hmmm. What changed between those statements 🤔🤔 Players told you to set the season, but it’s too early to set the season right now,

bighen

2:37

Jay - I get the guys that have very little leverage taking underslot bonuses but what about the guy that just went #2 to the Orioles? Why wouldn't he basically say "you just used the #2 pick in the draft on me, I want the slot money for that pick. If you want to waste that pick, good luck". I understand it's more prestigious to go high etc. but is it that the teams have already worked it out with the agents or ? I just feel like that guy and guys like him have leverage, the team is unlikely to punt on the pick. Maybe i'm missing something obvious

Jay Jaffe

2:39

OK, i'm not the draft/prospect expert, but it seems to me that Heston Kjerstad, the player in question, would have even less leverage going back to school for his senior year and risking going through the draft again. I know he was considered a reach at number two so I imagine that there were predraft discussions with the of what his $ number would be, and that this isn't going to turn into a bloody mess for both sides.

Derek

2:39

Is there any good baseball news right now?

Jay Jaffe

2:39

The KBO is a lot of fun!

Lorenzo

2:40

Do you think ROY eligibility will be prorated? If so, rookies this season with around 45 AB or 20 IP will not qualify for the award in 2021.

Jay Jaffe

2:42

A friend asked me about this the other day and I just don't know; it's so far down on the list of pressing issues that I'm not sure it's been discussed seriously in anything I've read. I suspect that the thresholds will remain untouched; if you have less than 50 IP/130 AB this year and haven't gone over on the service time qualifier as well, you're still eligible next year, and if that makes for a larger-than-usual crop of rookies, so be it.

John

2:43

Maybe I'm being naive when I ask this question, but I'd like to get a little clarification. MLB earns approximately $10,000,000,000 per year according to most sources. When they claim they will lose roughly $640,000 for every game played in an 81 game season do they expect us to believe they would finish the season in the red for $777,600,000 (that's $640,000 x 81 games x 15 home teams) or will they just earn $10 Billion minus the $777.6 Million ?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

Craig Edwards is far more on top of the numbers than I am. See here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/parsing-mlbs-claim-of-a-4-billion-loss/ and check with him if you need clarification.

Max

2:43

There was talk of expanding the Arizona Fall League, but with a spike of cases in Arizona, will we even have an AFL?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

That's a damn good question and right now I suspect the answer is quite possibly no.

Bob Loblaw's Knoblauch

2:44

Have you still been enjoying the KBO? Any recommendations for a player or team that has flown under the radar thus far that you've been entertained by?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

I haven't had as much time to watch the KBO in the past two weeks as before, due to other work, but yes, I'm still enjoying it very much. As for under-the-radar guys, check out Jin-sung Kang, the NC Dinos' first baseman who now has enough plate appearances to qualify in the batting race and is hitting .450. He wasn't expected to be a starter, and he's hardly the biggest star on a team that has Sung-Bum Na, Euiji Yang, and more, but wow.

Matthew Cleator

2:46

Afternoon Jay. Recently got a subscription to your site from the UK and loving it so far thank you :) Let's say we have a 50 ish game season... what would/could that mean draft wise? Is a lottery more likely? Go Tigers.

Jay Jaffe

2:48

First, thanks for the support! it's much appreciated by me and all of my colleagues.

I'm skeptical that they'd turn the draft into a lottery but you're right that a 50ish-game season creates problems, so what I can imagine happening is some kind of weighting with the previous year's record (s) incorporated. Mind you, I haven't heard much in this area, and somebody like Eric Longenhagen, who's our prospect expert, is likely to know more.

Zonk

2:48

If baseball does happen this year, what is free agency going to look like this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

exponentially worse than the past two winters, I fear. practically every team will claim they don't have the money to make big signings, and the urge to punish the players for sticking together will be through the roof.

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