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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/25/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
No. Single-season feats aren't enough for the Hall. Just ask Roger Maris.
Derek
2:50
So... The Giants, huh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
They've caught the Dodgers and Padres while both were dealing with a whole lot of stuff and not playing up to their high potentials. They've hit on so many reclamation projects, and gotten big breaks with the turnarounds of Posey, Longoria, and Belt, though the last two of those are now injured, and we're waiting to hear about the severity of Belt's knee. They're 11-5 since Longoria went down, but can they withstand another big loss?
2:55
Right now our odds give them an 81% chance of making a playoff spot and a 13% chance at the division. up from 5.5% and 0.2% on Opening Day. That's amazing.
Ben
2:55
Who has done the most to improve their Hall of Fame chances so far this year? Posey? Molina? Kimbrel? deGrom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
Good question. All to some degree have helped their cause but to me it feels as though it's been most important for Posey and Kimbrel given that both were in danger of losing out on opportunities for key roles — part-time C, non-closer — if they'd gone further into decline.
Dave C
2:57
Who has a better chance of ever making the hall- Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I think Hernandez given the defensive metrics and appreciation for his skill set there
Ben
2:57
I'm curious if you're familiar with teams doing work regarding players' mental health and how it pertains to performance. I'm also an NBA fan, and the discourse surrounding Ben Simmons and his passivity and lack of aggression has been a hot topic since the Sixers lost in the playoffs. Do teams try to analyze these factors, and is there any value (both for competitive reasons as well as for the player's mental health) in trying to do so?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I'm not overly familiar with it but I'm sure some teams do analyze those factors, and I believe there can be value in it, but I also think that teams keep that stuff pretty close to the vest lest the public get wind of it, and that it's far removed from the kind of public "discourse" one gets via frustrated fans and red meat talk radio hosts
Sharps
2:59
What do you mean by "left-spectrum" types?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
the left side of the defensive spectrum — DH, 1B, LF primarily.
Who Me
2:59
When do Marlins trade Starling and what can they get for him? How about Yimi?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Probably in late July along with everybody else. See Kevin Goldstein's piece as to why teams tend to wait to make deals — they rarely happen this far out https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-teams-wait-to-make-trades/
Ed H
3:01
Thoughts (or perhaps an article) on Jose Ramirez as a HOFer? Seems like he's on the right path, but you don't hear much talk about Jose and the HOF.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
He had a couple of massive seasons at 24-25 and would appear to be in the midst of a 3rd one at 28, but his 30.1 WAR through age 28 would merely by 26th if he didn't play another game this year, and even if he adds another 4 WAR he'd be 17th, with some HOFers below him (Chipper, Brooks, Thome!, Lindstrom) and non-HOFers above or alongside him (Bell, Wright, Zimmerman)
Uncle Spike
3:06
What's wrong with Gleyber Torres?  His plate discipline actually looks improved but he's just not getting qualify contact.  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
He's been a big reason the Yankees have disappointed, quite frankly, and I feel like their decision to push him back to SS will carry long-term ramifications for the roster. They really need to be in on one of the big free agent shortstops, but having signed LeMahieu complicates that unless they move DJ to 3B.
3:09
Torres' quality of contact is just anemic for a guy who had 38 homers just two seasons ago.
William Ashley
3:09
There is a lot of talk of the 80 grade hit tool for Wander Franco.  Who from recent MLB history have actually displayed 80 grades for each of the offensive tools?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
That's a question for Eric Longenhagen or Kevin Goldstein, but I can tell you that 80 tools are extremely rare
Scotty
3:10
There is a report that Scherzer will only accept a trade if he gets an extension with the new team.... do you think that's a bluff?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
no, because he has 10-and-5 rights and has to authorize the trade anyway. The acquiring team would have to request a window to negotiate with him so presumably the agreement would be in place before he greenlights the deal
Homer Jaffe Simpson
3:12
Random non baseball question: but as a New Yorker, do you find yourself being an ahole at random times to people who deserve it or are you nice to everyone? Having a chat with my lady and I need another northeaster to settle our discussion.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I wouldn't call it random but there are occasionally times when I am away from the city and I observe myself "New Yorking" it, which I define as speaking up in order to get a faster resolution to something (say, pick up a prepaid order) instead of standing around waiting for somebody to notice me.
3:17
I'm reminded of Johnny Carson's definition of a New York minute: "'the time it takes for the light in front of you to turn green and the guy behind you to honk his horn.''
3:18
Life just seems to move a bit more quickly here, and New Yorkers get antsy when the rest of the world isn't up to that pace.
Italian beef w/ giardiniera
3:18
When the camera flashed to Kimbrel in the 8th he was standing in front of the fence, waiting to come in. I was thinking to myself "He must be so jacked to come in and finish this thing off." How wrong I was lol
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Given the number of walks Davies and his relievers issued I wasn't surprised to hear about the middlemen not realizing that a no-hitter was in progress, but very surprised the word hadn't filtered to Kimbrel.
Mike Ortman
3:19
Awesome to see the Negro League stat integration onto Baseball Reference last week.  Also, MLB and NLBM seem to be really forming a strong partnership.  If the first to benefit with a HOF induction is Minnie Minoso or Buck O'Neil, who would you guess would be next?  Or will it take forever for even those two to finally be recognized?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Awesome indeed. I really think the additional statistics strengthen Miñoso's case, but I don't think they help O'Neil as much; his stats that are now considered major league aren't all that impressive, and much of his case relies upon his trailblazing as a crossover coach and scout. It was noteworthy to me that neither of those guys came up when I asked Larry Lester or Sean Gibson about who this helps when it comes to the Hall of Fame (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baseball-reference-launches-major-overhaul...).
I'll have more about the Negro Leagues stuff sometime in the not-too-distant future
Don
3:23
Watch any college baseball? Root for anyone? Sometimes those games seem more pure and characteristic of the youthful spirit of the game to me. There are special, memorable moments that’s seep through in the big leagues, but often times the players seem a bit jaded with the common “work” mentality, understandable as it may be.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I can't seem to find the time to catch up to college baseball – while I was on the Cape, i didn't even have a TV, so any baseball I watched was via phone or laptop, and it never really occurred to me to check in on the College World Series stuff. It's my loss, surely
Tony Kemp
3:25
Am I good now????
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Good question! A 148 wRC+ is worth a closer look, so I'll see about finding time for one
Dalton Wilcox
3:26
The Cubs! How’s about them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
It's amazing how much better a team they are with a healthy Kris Bryant and a non-replacement level Baez, but that rotation,meh.
Italian beef w/ giardiniera
3:28
Do you think Scherzer is stipulating that because he's worried a team would trade for him and then overwork him because of his expiring contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
No, i think he just doesn't want to make a short-term move and then have to move again after 2-3 months with a new team.
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