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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/25/21
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Angels
3:31
Did you expect Rendon to be this bad so soon? What does the rest of the season look like? The next 5 years? Wasn't he on track to be a borderline HOF prior to being in the angels?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
I think Rendon is just banged up  — groin, knee, triceps injuries have all cost him time, and I suspect he could be pressing. His swing rate is at a career high while his contact rate is near its low. Not tremendously worried about him long-term... yet.
3:35
And i've never particularly seen him on a HOF path. 32.2 WAR through age 30  — what he had coming into this season — is a guy who has to stick around and be very good for several more years and extremely good for a few more to have any kind of shot.
Don
3:35
Has any research been done on how the decision to go to college affects HOF chances? The common sense answer is that less time would lead to lower chances, to me at least, but do you know how it actually plays out? Maybe the average age at debut for a HOF is late enough that the 3 or so years of college don’t affect that exceptional of a player. Also a bit curious about the breakdown of how HOFs entered pro ball. Just thinking out loud and curious about your thoughts on any of it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I've never studied it, probably worth a closer look.
Hafez
3:36
Should the Astros be concerned about Zack Greinke? Never been a high strikeout guy but his K/9 is way down and batters are making tons of contact against him. Is it possible he's the team's 5th best starter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
Eh, I don't know that they have special reason to worry. Worth noting that his velo is up relative to last year and his contact numbers aren't bad. With Greinke you just never know what's by design unless he tips his hand. If he showed up and said he's going to pitch his next start left-handed, they'd probably roll with it.
Billy Beanie
3:40
What do the A's do about their SS situation? Gonna be hard to keep up with the Astros with Andrus's negative WAR. (Incidentally, how unforgivable is it that they let Semien walk after he expressed a desire to stay and ended up taking a one-year deal to switch positions?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
As I noted when he had his elbow scare (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-if-the-rockies-needed-more-trouble-trev...), I think the A's might be the best short-term fit for Trevor Story if the Rockies trade him, which they need to do.
3:42
But I don't think the A's are going to pay Story long-term.
Mike Ortman
3:42
Follow up: Buck O'Neil just needs to be viewed as a "contributor".  That should be so freaking obvious by this point.  Joe Posnanski has written about it, and Bob Kendrick agrees.  Like you said, he was the first coach right, and as a scout, we have him to thank for signing black HOFers.  Not a question I guess, unless I put it this way: considering all the ugliness on the last ballot (Schilling, Vizquel, and yes even Helton to a much lesser extent), can we not treat ourselves to honoring one freaking feel good story once in a while?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
well put.
3:44
ok folks, lots of good questions in the queue but I've reached my pitch count, especially after a layoff. Thanks for stopping by and have a great week!
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