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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I'm back from a (mostly) restful vacation on Cape Cod, and today I've got a deep dive into the soaring home run rates; I think we've reached the point of "Too Many Homers" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weve-reached-the-point-of-too-many-homers/
I Won a Phone
12:03
How come FG on mobile is such a spammy wasteland?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
I have no idea because I never encounter this, as I get to sign into my account. I know that if you become a member, you get an ad-free annual membership (https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/), and if your woes are happening even with that going on, well — we've got something that needs fixing.
Cove Dweller
12:04
Do you think that MadBum gets Jack Morris-like consideration for the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I think he's going to have to pitch well for a long time for that to happen, and right now, given that he's staring a third straight season with fewer than 10 wins (yawn) in the face, with a set of peripherals that have generally been moving in the wrong direction for years, I have a hard time imagining him getting the bulk numbers on which to base such a case that would obviously play up given his postseason accomplishments.
Ryan
12:06
Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. When you're looking at historical stats, how do you decide what date cutoffs to use? I'm looking at team records following a loss using baseball-reference data, and I was thinking only looking at seasons from 1900-present day would make sense- thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I think there are some natural cutoffs. 1901 (the start of the AL), 1920 (the start of the live-ball era, more or less), 1945 (post-WW2), 1947 (post-integration), 1961, 1969, 1993 (expansion years), 1973 (DH era)... it depends what your purpose is but I think those are justifiable cutoffs
IsIt2020Yet?
12:09
Dodgers reportedly interested in Felipe Vazquez as their setup guy. Do you think something like a Will Smith (C) Josiah Gray (RHP) Omar Estevez (2B) deal would get that done for either side?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I know nothing about Gray or Estavez beyond the fact that Eric and Kiley ranked them among the team's top 10 with 45 FVs (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-35-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/),  but I would imagine that it's going to take a lot to acquire Vazquez given that he's signed through 2021, with a pair of affordable club options tacked on. And I suspect that one of their two top catching prospects, Smith or Keibert Ruiz (who has the higher ceiling of the two) will be the centerpiece of their biggest move.
J
12:13
I wouldn’t have thought it a year ago today, but Hamels has at least a decent shot at the Hall now, no? 3000 Ks and 70 bWAR seems doable.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
I think he's definitely a tier below Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer, all of whom have much higher peaks. His 37.6 bWAR7 is lower than Sabathia (39.3), and he doesn't have CC's Cy Young award; I think we'll get a better idea of what his odds are when the big man reaches the ballot. But yes, if he has staying power to reach such milestones, the Hall is possible
IsIt2020Yet?
12:16
Any way FG could stop asking me to be a member after having already signed up to be one?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Hmm, if that's still happening when you're logged in, something is probably amiss. I'd try reaching out to david@fangraphs.com or describing the problem via our form https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contact/ in hopes that we can figure out what's happening.
GraphsFan
12:17
What'd you get up to on the Cape?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Saw a Cape Cod League game (Orleans Firebirds vs. Brewster Whitecaps), spent a lot of time on the beach, ate a lot of seafood, drank some local/regional beers (Mayflower, Devil's Purse, Cisco, Stoneface, Hog Island, Fiddlehead — see https://untappd.com/user/jay_jaffe/beers for specifics), saw Rocketman (loved it), placed my daughter in time-out approximately every 37 minutes (her most Terrible Twos phase ever), worried about my right shoulder (rehab setback that I think we finally have a handle on), caught glimpses of the Womens World Cup and generally relaxed.
Tom C
12:21
Does Greinke have a shot at the Hall at this point? Seems like it comes down to quantity over quality at this point
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
He's got the highest JAWS of any active pitcher (58.0), will be the next pitcher to 200 wins (195), and has a legitimate shot at 3,000 strikeouts (2,528). He's got two HUGE seasons driving his peak/JAWS but there's no crime in that. I think he'll get in and would vote for him even if he retired today.
PD
12:24
Is a team slugging percentage of .501 good?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
heh, it (the Twins' current SLG) would break the record held by the 2003 Red Sox (.491). Yet another silly number from a silly season, offensively.
Nelson
12:26
Do you think Alex Verdugo will ever turn into a consistent 20+ HR threat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
ZiPS doesn't think so (a high of 12 in his 3-year projection) but in this environment, practically everybody who can consistently elevate the ball is a 20-homer threat. The question is whether Verdugo or the Dodgers tinker with his swing, which is producing a 48% groundball rate and 1.6 GB/FB ratio.
Brian
12:28
Do you think Will Smith will bring back a big return for the Giants?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Eh, not really. He may be the most desirable reliever on the market, or at least the most desirable lefty, but he's also a pending free agent. They're not going to get a Francis Mejia-level prospect.
Norman
12:30
True or False: The Rays will play more than 0 regular-season games in Montreal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
If they do, it won't be as the Two-City Rays (the Tampareal Rayspos?), it will be as a Montreal-based franchise, post move/sale. About which, here's what I wrote yesterday for those who missed it. http://blogs.fangraphs.com/its-hard-to-take-the-rays-tale-of-two-citie...
Morbo
12:32
Jay, how do you foresee  the alteration to the All Star selection process this year affecting the relevance of an All Star appearance for HOF election, Jaws, and more broadly the electorate's view of a player's selection as an All Star going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I haven't given it a moment of thought, to be quite honest — haven't given anything All-Star related beyond my plans to do a HR Derby preview much thought, really — but even with the way the process has changed over the years, it's a very rare thing for a voter to do more that note how many times a player makes a team. In the end, the good players usually make it to a bunch of them, but I think voters understand that with more teams, it's tougher for guys to rack up, lik, 15 appearances as they did in the 20th century.
Craig
12:35
Give me hope as a Mets fan
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Someday the world will be just a frozen rock hurtling through space, and then nobody will give a shit just how awful the Wilpons' tenure as owners has been.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:37
Where is the Closer threshold for RPers? Like are Kimbrel, Jansen, Champan HOFers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I think all three of those guys have a chance, but really, it's going to come down to whether they're still effective in their late 30s. bWAR-wise, none of them has even surpassed Joe Nathan (21.7) or Jonathan Papelbon (19.6) in peak score, for example. My bWAR/WPA/WPALI combo measure makes the case that the floor is around Hoffman to really justify election. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill...
faffri
12:42
If the characteristics of the ball keeps changing from year to year in a noticeable way would it be possible that stats eventually gets weighted depending on what year they were accomplished?  Even if we have don't have absolute proof it seems MLB could change the ball at will from year to year if they want to.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Weighted by whom, MLB? That's not their job. Already, any analyst worth his or her salt knows that raw offensive numbers from the 1920s and '30s, or the late '90s and '00s, require context, and that the major milestones have been devalued. That's why I went to WAR/JAWS in the first place — to get a more level playing field that translated counting stats to value.
1947
12:45
I'm torn. I think Ruth and Gehrig and such are important, but as a black guy, I also think I can't find the people who competed before Jackie to have truly played against the best. So for me, I just say "best since integration" and go from there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
I think that's an entirely fair cutoff to use.
garywmaloney
12:46
Nats - what moves would you suggest to Rizzo over next crucial month? Thanks, Jay, for all the great articles and insights.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
Short of investing in a time machine so as to go sign Kimbrel, or lighting an insurance fire and skipping town, you mean?

I I think he should mandate playing Kendrick at 1B, getting a better 2B than Dozier, and trading for ALL OF THE RELIEVERS.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:51
I will fight anyone who says CC is not a HOFer. He's been a great pitcher, leader and winner for like 42 years. But seriously, do you think the HOF will be extremely tough on SPers in the coming decade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
That's a good question. I think now that we've seen the 300-or-bust roadblock fall via the elections of Blyleven, Mussina, Pedro, Smoltz, and Halladay, it will be a bit easier for guys to get in. I don't think CC is going to sail in but I do think he gets there, for example, and likewise for the other guys I mentioned above (Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer).
Billy Beane
12:53
HI Jay, read your piece, and I have to respectfully disagree. Home runs are, generally speaking, fun and even if we compare it to the late 80s we're talking about a difference of less than 2 home runs per game and they're more spread out. If it were impacting the game where one guy were hitting 90 bombs or something, I could see where that would feel a little cheap, but the kerfuffle about guys going from 10 to 30 HRs seems a little old man yells at cloud to me.
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