JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:55

while you're free to disagree, you'd better check your math on "about a difference of less than 2 home runs per game" when teams are hitting 1.36 per game, about 0.6 more than in the '80s.

Brandon

12:55

Chances the mets sell syndergaard or Degrom at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

LOL no.

12:59

Look, they signed deGrom long term, with full no-trade protection. He's not going anywhere — you have to imagine that before he did so, he played out the various scenarios in his mind, including something on the order of a shitshow like this, and decided he's still better off in Queens than elsewhere — and I have a very hard time imagining they're selling low on Syndergaard with two years of club control remaining. And it's very clear that they're not a dreadful team in need of a rebuild. I'd start with a new manager — I'd have fired Callaway long ago — and see where it goes from there.

Nolan

1:00

What do you think the Cardinals' approach at the deadline looks like?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

I'd think they'd be in the market for a starter, perhaps Bumgarner, and I'd imagine that the loss of Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery will put them in the relief market too.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:02

Have HRs become "too common"? And if MLB decides it has, what can they do to change that, go back to the old balls?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

That's the case I'm making in today's piece. I don't think it's a matter of simply going back to the old balls. As Meredith Wills makes clear in her work, Rawlings has instituted several changes in its attempts to tighten specs and improve the production process — but it seems that in doing so, they've created a monster.

The league and the plant need to get a handle on the relative impact of their recent tweaks and attempt to engineer a ball that that more closely hews to their expectations. I know that they've been working on a more grippable ball for a few years, but they need to take a comprehensive approach that yields a ball that's a little more difficult to hit 450 feet.

jkim

1:07

If Ryu continues being this excellent (ok maybe not 1.27 ERA good) and ends the season around 1.8-2.1 ERA and 6-7 FWAR and win teh CYA, where do you place him among Asian-born ballplayers?

Shouldn't he overtake basically everyone and be no. 1 by then?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

That might be the best pitching season by an Asian-born player but in the big picture, I think you're forgetting Ichiro Suzuki, who did rack up 3,000 hits and about 58 WAR stateside. Even if you're just limiting the question to pitchers, I think you'd want to see a body of work that at least matches guys like Nomo, Darvish, and Kuroda before anointing Ryu the best.

IsIt2020Yet?

1:12

What other teams besides the Dodgers figure to try and make a back of the bullpen move? Twins, Rays, missing anyone?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Every. Single. Contender. Needs. Bullpen. Help. Because. You. Can. Never. Have. Too. Much. Pitching.

Keith

1:13

Do you think the Angels will be buyers? Could they possibly pull off a deal for syndergaard or Bauer without Adell?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Their playoff odds are at 4.6% right now, so I'd be skeptical they do more than a touch-up while hoping for the best. If they want a blockbuster for a guy lie Bauer or Syndergaard, they can wait until the offseason when they're under less time pressure to make a move.

Kawasaki Home Run

1:15

Aesthetically, what are the issues with Bludgeon Ball? For example, basketball today is starkly different than it was 15 years ago, due to an avalanche of perimeter shooting. While this isn't equipment related, and while MLB needs to acknowledge the more aerodynamic ball, perhaps this change is a good one?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Like all aesthetic matters, it's a question of taste. There's been a growing chorus over the past few years regarding the preponderance of three true outcomes events, the lack of balls in play, and the variety that's been lost, the streamlining of offenses to downplay the impact of baserunning and contact hitting, for example.

I did not find myself in that camp until very recently, but now that I look at the evidence, both in terms of the brand of baseball we're seeing this year, with record home run levels, and the evidence that the ball itself is fueling this, I think it's time to address these matters. Your mileage may vary, but I suspect that more people are joining this camp than leaving it.

Guest

1:22

When does NYY go after a starter, and who is it

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Like everybody else in contention, they'll be going after a starter in July. I think they missed a major opportunity with Keuchel, and now it will cost them talent as well as money to patch the rotation. I think Wheeler is a longshot (to say nothing of Syndergaard), but I wouldn't surprise me if they target Stroman, as they've dealt with this Blue Jays regime before.

Don

1:26

Why are so many using WAR as the end all to selecting MVP candidates? Seems very narrow sighted.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Gosh, I would think that if we're trying to define "value" as in "most valuable" we might want to use a tool that estimates a player's offensive, defensive and baserunning contributions instead of relying on ye olde eye test and gut instincts. I don' think WAR needs to be the only tool in an MVP discussion — WPA has its place, for example, and we can also bring information that doesn't fit neatly into a statistic (did this player have a career year while a teammate was out due to injury, say) or decide based upon what's to the right of the decimal. But if I had a vote, I'd start with WAR and place a heavy weight on that in my deliberations.

Ryan

1:29

The Twins haven't lost 3 games in a row yet this season. Since 1900, only the 1902 Pirates managed to avoid a 3 game losing streak all season. What do you think the chances are the Twins manage to go the entire season without a three game losing streak?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

Wow, that's cool, but I highly doubt they get through the season with no 3-game losing streak. They're plenty good but it also takes a lot of luck to avoid such a thing, and when you consider that they've only given four starts to pitchers out of their front five, you can imagine, say, a DL stint weakening the rotation and making such a streak possible in a given week.

Gabe

1:31

What is going on with Odubel Herrera? Is he suspended by MLB right now or just on leave? Will be

Jay Jaffe

1:37

Being on administrative leave, as he has been for about a month, is a de facto suspension. Obviously, he's not coming back anytime soon, and it sounds as though the Phillies are operating that way (

Matt Klentak could not provide an update on Odúbel Herrera, who has been on paid administrative leave for 28 days.

"I can tell you from a roster building perspective," Klentak said, "we need to assume that we’re not going to have Odúbel anytime soon."

Mat

1:37

What do the Dodgers do with Urias long term?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I would imagine they're targeting about 90-100 innings for him this year with the hopes that he can stay healthy and be a full-fledged starter next year.

connor

1:39

Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison cannot be worse than Starlin Castro and Granderson. Why aren't the Marlins promoting them?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

Because the Marlins have no interest in being competitive right now. It serves their purposes better to keep losing and save the service time for a day when they've got a stronger roster.

I do suspect that Granderson will be gone as of July or August. I guess with Castro it would depend on how much $ they're willing to eat.

Ryan

1:41

What's your opinion on extended netting? I really don't like the argument that people need to pay closer attention. I don't know the case at other stadiums, but at Target Field they advertise on the scoreboard before the game that you should download the MLB ballpark App and also provide a free WiFi network. On top of that, who's to say paying attention means constantly watching the ball? If I'm looking at the statcast results of the previous at bat (which Target Field also shows on a video board) or watching a runner get his lead and don't watch the pitcher throw the ball, I'm still paying attention to the game.

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I think we're moving towards pole-to-pole netting by next seasons, and I'm in favor if it. The ball moves too quickly, the distractions at the ballpark are too great, and the price of tragedy is too high for this not to happen, particularly given that the MLBPA wants this.

As a matter of policy, I have decided that I no longer have any time to engage the Never-Net Bros on Twitter.

Dan

1:44

What do the Yankees and Red Sox think about the two days off? I’m sure they appreciate the extra rest but I assume they’d prefer to have their days off spaced out more.

Jay Jaffe

1:45

competitive eel pie eating, maybe? I can't imagine that they're complaining about the days off given the impact of such a quick transatlantic trip. Jet lag and sleep issues do impact performance.

Ralph Rowdie

1:45

Any chance Stu Sternberg is eyeing a John Henry-like swoop into NY and hoping a deal is worked out where the Wilpon’s are ousted, he buys the Mets, and someone else takes over the Rays either keeping them in Tampa Bay or moving them?

Jay Jaffe

1:47

LOL if you think MLB is ever going to oust the Wilpons. The chance to do so was when the Madoff scandal hit. Both Selig and Manfred know how to count votes, and they know that moving on any owner short of a McCourt-type bad actor is a recipe for crumbling consensus.

Ralph Rowdie

1:48

How hard will it be for deGrom to work himself into a tier with Scherzer/Verlander/Greinke?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

If you're talking about his chances for the Hall of Fame, quite hard, given that he's already 31 with one Tommy John surgery and just two 5.0 bWAR seasons under his belt. That shouldn't devalue what he's doing, but the deck is stacked against him to get to Cooperstown.

Homers

1:51

Do the (almost) healthy Yankees catch the Twins in homers by EOS?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

I think so and said as much in today's piece.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:52

On avg, how many HOFers are active in the league at all times?

Jay Jaffe

1:52

Limiting to BBWAA selections only, here are the averages I cited when writing about my virtual ballot in December.