JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/23

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/23

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Jay Jaffe

3:30

The most likely route would be in the so-called "writers wing," as he could be nominated for the BBWAA Career Excellence Award, which was done for Roger Angell (when it was still known as the Spink Award) despite his never having been a member. He'd still have to win that election, and I don't have any way of handicapping that one — a ton of people within the BBWAA respect his work but they probably skew to the younger side, which means they may not all have the vote (you need 10 years of consecutive membership, just as for HOF voting).

3:32

The other way would be to be nominated as a pioneer and go up for election against the manager, execs, and umpires of the post-1980 era. That's not easy when the nominations are limited to eight every three years under the new system, and that half the voters are HOFers, with many of them stuck on a back-in-my-day mindset.

Your “new statistics” hurt the game. It’s not equal. Baseball is in trouble. That wasn’t the case before people who have done nothing in this sport had a say about how it’s played

The people who don't pay any attention to the "old" baseball statistics (Wins, RBI, Batting Average) are exactly like the people who won't pay any attention to the new statistics. They just parked on the other side of the road, that's all.

WinTwins0410

3:32

Jay, I enjoyed your series on S-JAWS and pitchers from various decades. Did you ever conclude that series, or is that something you'll get back to? IE, I don't recall seeing articles involving pitchers born in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, but maybe I just missed those? Thank you for doing those -- the ones I read were both entertaining and informative.

Jay Jaffe

3:34

Thanks! I was thinking about that series while on Cape Cod. My last installment was lasst September, when I tackled the pitchers born in the 1960s: here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-back-to-the-sixties-p... and here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-back-to-the-sixties-p...

I am hoping to return to the series, probably after the trade deadline passes

marmol

3:34

You seem pretty sure the red hot Cubs will be sellers. Winners of 11 of their last 14, rotation and bullpen both looking as good as they have all season.... idk.

Jay Jaffe

3:35

They've run hot and cold all year. They're only three games out of first place in a weak division, but that doesn't mean they'll be so close in late July. We'll see

Jerry Buchek

3:36

Did STL lock themselves into two albatross contracts in one offseason, especially for a team whose payrolls haven't kept pace with the league in awhile? Arenado's defensive drop in one year has to be historic.

Jay Jaffe

3:37

Arenado's defensive metrics are meh right now but the real problem with the Cardinals is poor roster construction and a hot-garbage rotation.

Guest

3:37

Hi Jay - thoughts on the Pirates? Are they building towards something or spinning their wheels?

Jay Jaffe

3:39

Steps in the right direction, I think. Keller, Suwinski, Cruz, Reynolds, and now Davis are all players I can envision being part of a contending team in the near future (perhaps as near as a few hot weeks)

Krusty

3:39

Question re. Ohtani for JAWS/WAR/HOF-y type stuff: WAR might-maybe-even-probably does underrate him by a few runs or perhaps a bit more (depending on how you value that 26th roster spot, the 13/13 pitcher/position player caps, etc.)

Obviously, actual IRL Ohtani's HOF candidacy probably isn't going to turn on whatever this turns out to be over the course of his career, but... that could compile over a 15+ year career to a meaningful number of wins, no? Does that rate as important for you? Or is it just a one-off?

So, I'm curious what your #take on this is, re. how it impacts how you handle him, how JAWS might handle him, his candidacy, etc? (And apologies for yet another Ohtani question)

Jay Jaffe

3:43

the various accounting issues and assumptions built into either version of WAR probably amount to a few wins over the course of a career. That said, the issue is not something that is going to change the more qualitative evaluation and appreciation of him as a genuine unicorn.

Tel

3:43

When you're getting ready for a chat do you open a few key reference sites that you use frequently so you can look up numbers quickly? I saw the King Felix question and your response pop up in real time and was surprised at first when the initial response didn't have the JAWS numbers in it (before the second part put them in) Then I thought - well, I can't expect him to know all those numbers off the top of his head.

Jay Jaffe

3:44

i open stuff like JAWS rankings — or even playoff odds, standings pages, player pages, whatever — as needed, which is why this chat isn't as rapid-fire as some. Sometimes it's better to check the work rather than just going on reflex

3:45

OK folks, this was a fun one today and I'm sorry I can't get to more of your questions.

next Tuesday is July 4, so you won't have a chat from me then, but enjoy the holiday!

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