JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/23

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warpath

2:44

I'm moving to Philly next month, any experience or tips for a baseball fan in the city?

Jay Jaffe

2:45

Only that you probably shouldn't wear the full Mets kit to Citizens

(I've never been but hoping to remedy that this summer)

James

2:45

How many more years of 2-way greatness ensure Ohtani a hall of fame spot? Say he maintains this pace for 2 more seasons and then is league average for the next 5 years, is he in?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

If Ohtani gets to the 10 qualifying seasons (i.e., plays through 2027), he has my vote, and I don't really care what JAWS says about it, because it's been f'ing remarkable and unprecedented. That said, he's already at 30.2 combined bWAR and 30.2 JAWS, and improving upon the low-hanging fruit in his peak score (-0.4 WAR in 2020, 2.5 in '19) could push him to a 40+ peak pretty quickly.

Joaquim

2:52

Hi Jay. Help my dodger fan friends and I settle a debate: who's the scariest WC opponent between Miami, SF and SD?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

i think it's the Padres because as much as they've underperformed, those guys are very talented and i still believe it's gonna come together sooner or later

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

2:52

As writers, how do you feel when you publish an article, and then data that shows up immediately afterwards refutes your argument? Either data that undermines your original assertion(s), or new observations altogether?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

well, for one you (I) try to anticipate what seeing contradictory data might mean, and a lot of times that comes down to pointing out where sample sizes are short, where other issues might be clouding our observations, and so on. but even if you do all that, you have to be prepared for things to change and make you look silly — it's baseball, it's unpredictable, players are humans, and right now the paths to improvement are more open than ever. Stardom can be one swing plane change or one grip change away.

2:55

You have to develop a thick skin and understand there are times you're gonna be wrong — and if you read me, you'll know that i try to acknowledge that it can be instructive to be proven wrong.

Buttered Muffins

2:56

Can the Mets just use this disaster of a season to enhance their chances of signing Ohtani by trading XYZ player(s) and their contracts away while keeping a competitive core intact?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

I think it would be very hard to move money (Scherzer and Verlander) while keeping a competitive core intact since the decline of that core seems to be part of the problem. If Cohen wants to spend, he'll spend, but he's not going to get Ohtani by shaving nickels off the payroll so he can plug the rotation with Megill and Peterson

Condor

2:59

I know it's unlikely Ohtani would sign, but why couldn't the Orioles put together the best free agent pitch? With a ton of cost-controlled talent, a rising team, and the DH slot open for many years due to all that youth, almost no other team could "afford" Ohtani like the Orioles. Consistently beating the Yanks and Red Sox in their division would also do wonders for his legacy. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

neither Angelos nor Elias seem to believe in spending money, so don't think a team currently running a $63 million payroll will have the stomach to pay Ohtani the $50 million a year or upwards he's going to command.

Guest

3:01

There appears to be about 18ish of 30 teams in contention for a playoff spot and we're almost to the All-Star Break. Plus it seems unlikely teams like the Padres and Cardinals will sell. Who are FOR SURE sellers and what is even for sale?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

that's more than I can fit in a chat window but I think it's pretty clear the Royals, White Sox and Cubs will be among the sellers.

mac

3:04

the yankees' player dev is completely inscrutable to me, for hitters in particular. with one 6'7 exception, they seem to get lauded for their system but produce so few above-average enduring MLB-caliber regulars that they're left with an old, injury-prone lineup of mid-30s veterans all trending downwards. is there one fatal flaw in their approach, is the next crop of prospects likely to fare any better than clint frazier and justus sheffield, or is it time to clean house and install a much more modern crew who weren't appointed when a Bush was in the white house?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

congratulations on writing the longest sentence in the history of chats.

3:05

obviously, the answer is YES, but to which question i'm not sure.

3:10

There's a longer article in this (not by me) but if you are going to complain about Frazier and Sheffield — neither of whom the team drafted, those were trades — not panning out you have to count Gleyber Torres (also a trade) among their successes even with a couple of lean years, and Gary Sanchez had some good ones early on as well. Yes, the Yankees have struggled to produce position players, but it's too early to judge Volpe as a failure, and they've been very good at producing pitching, which they've used to fill other holes on their roster. Reliance on above-average but not star aging veterans who have become increasingly fragile — rather than getting in on the likes of Machado, Correa, Semien, Lindor — has cost them some flexibility. Is it time for a change? Maybe.

Jake

3:11

Do you think a knuckleballer will ever be able to make it as a full time big leaguer again? Or is the peak now an up/down spot start guy, like Waldron or Jannis

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I don't think it's out of the question we can get another regular but let's just say the field is wide open when it comes to who it might be.

Trevor

3:12

Do you have a favorite minor league club?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Not really. I do go see more Cyclones games than any other but I don't get particularly attached to the players, whom I see maybe once or twice. It's fun to see what's going on with the Salt Lake Bees, in my hometown, because they have had some fun players there. Speaking of which, here's Jo Adell hitting the longest tracked homer in Statcast history, 514 feet:

Jo Adell goes 514 feet for the Salt Lake Bees

emarkaye

3:14

With Manfred putting his foot in his mouth (yet again) concerning the A's potential relocation (plus his Time interview and bringing up his work with the *Astros), has anything done by MLB (commissioner, administration, teams, owners) put a significant dent in your love for the sport? It's a business, yes, but at some point with the publicly funded stadiums and the leadership talking out of both sides of its mouth and how teams are happy to turn a blind eye with Caribbean youths to save a buck (never mind the ad creep everywhere), has your passion went up, stayed the same, or went down since you were a kid?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

I mean if Bud Selig and the hardliners couldn't kill my love for baseball with collusion, attempted contraction, the strike, and the bungled PED response, Rob Manfred doesn't stand a chance. He can't even carry Bud's jock.

Aussie M’s Fan

3:17

What are King Felix’s chances for HOF? I feel like his peak was worthy but may have dropped off too quickly. Thanks

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Low, I'm afraid. His peak didn't last long enough and he faded too quickly.

3:20

I have him 96th in S-JAWS with 49.7 career WAR, 38.5 adjusted peak WAR, and 44.1 S-JAWS, the last of which is just 0.1 below Koufax but without all of the peripheral stuff that made Koufax special — the records, the no-hitters, the postseasons, the sudden retirement. Felix is well below Cole Hamels (71st) and Sabathia (55th) among the recently... inactive (I can't say retired since Hamels supposedly isn't, though he last appeared in a game in 2020).

Jake S

3:20

No real question, just wanted to share that I recently finished The Summer Game by Roger Angell. Delightful, as expected, but especially interesting to read about his thoughts on expansion and team movement in the current context of the Athletics. Sometimes it feels like the current ownership situation is unique to now but his words on the Senators and westward expansion/movement could fit right in to a FanGraphs post today.

Jay Jaffe

3:20

The Summer Game is eternally a great book

Murph

3:21

The Reds are projected by FanGraphs to have the 3rd-worst run differential in the NL ROS. Do you think that is in the right ballpark?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

on the one hand that seems extreme, on the other, for all of its potential that rotation hasn't performed; everybody but the injured Hunter Greene has a FIP of 5.00 or higher.

Yo-Yo

3:22

Re: Walker, he was considered to be a surprisingly okay third baseman for his size. I'm assuming he could make the switch to first, but I'm not aware how hard the switch from third to first is.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

a fair point. Some do handle it better than others, and IMO, since it's his arm that is his best tool for fielding (not his speed or range), it's largely wasted at first.

Moose

3:23

What do you make of Patrick Bailey's inability to hit from the RH side in the minors turning into a legit asset in the majors? Already has 3 MLB hrs from that side, after only 2 at all levels in the minors

Jay Jaffe

3:26

It shouldn't be too surprising that some players make bigger strides when coached at the major league level. That said, offhand I don't know anything about the ballparks he was playing in, or what the underlying batted ball data tells us. he might have just missed several homers

Mike

3:26

If the Angels make the playoffs, why is it so sure Ohtani is leaving?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

It's not, but some writers can't help but fall over themselves with he latest gossip/speculation/horserace about where he'll go

emh

3:27

What would it take for the HOF to open their doors to Bill James? Is it possible under the current rules or would they have to change the rules?

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