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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/28/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today's chat, my first in two weeks after time spent on Cape Cod with family and in Denver meeting our readers and my fellow staffers — and checking out Coors Field for the first time.

That visit had me wondering about the Rockies' recent problems in assembling a productive outfield, which I wrote about for today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-cant-the-rockies-put-together-an-o...

Meanwhile, I'll have an InstaGraphs page for this up later today, but if you're a Washington DC area resident a visitor who will be in town for the All-Star Futures Game, you're invited to a book signing at the great Politics and Prose, where Keith Law (ESPN Insider prospect expert and author of Smart Baseball) and I (author of Cooperstown Casebook) will sign and discuss our respective books on Saturday, July 14 at 6 pm. See https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book/keith-law-smart-baseball-jay... for more details in the interim.
With that out of the way, let's get to the questions!
Jeff
12:04
So with no Mets baseball to watch all summer, what should I do with all this free time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Read some books, spend time with family/children, devote yourself to a cause, sign up for MLB TV and watch other teams... there's plenty to do, and you will survive. You might even be healthier for it.
Fred
12:06
What kind of HOF case is Arenado building, and how do you think playing in Coors will affect his chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Arenado's years old and in his sixth season. If he keeps playing as he has been thus far in 2018, he'll have four seasons in the vicinity of 6 bWAR (or better), a strong foundation to build upon along with the more traditional measures. Voters have had a hard time figuring out what to do with the credentials of Larry Walker given his time at Coors, and they're likely to do the same when it comes to Todd Helton, who become eligible this winter and is in the vicinity of the JAWS standard at first base (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_1B.shtml), above on peak and below on career WAR. I think Arenado will be in better shape because of the perception and impact of his highlight-film defense, but it's still probably an uphill battle for any Rockies player.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:10
Jay, let's publicly rip into the jerk who has caused $4M in damage to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. And remind folks that they can donate to the refurbishing efforts!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
while it's far from the worst news of the week, it's really uncool what some people will stoop to., and worth checking out how you can help. They have a donations button on their home page https://www.nlbm.com/
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:12
Oh man! Politics and Prose is fantastic. I just moved to the west coast, but I encourage anyone in the DC area to attend!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Hell yes!
The Old Buccaneer
12:12
Is there any bright side to the Orioles’ situation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Their season is only 83 games from completion, and Manny Machado is having a much better year with the bat than in 2017, which should help offset the less-than-flattering defensive metrics that have come with his move back to shortstop. Zach Britton is back on the mound and working to recover his value. Adam Jones and Danny Valencia might bring back warm bodies in July trades as well.

That's about all I've got, sorry.
Moelicious
12:16
Is the Kyle Hendricks era over? The league seems to have caught up to him
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I haven't seen much of him, but a quick look at the numbers tells me his velo is fine (for him, at least), though just about everything else is moving in the wrong direction — more hard contact, more home runs, fewer strikeouts (but about the same rate of whiffs). Last night wasn't a good one for him but he's not the only offender in that Cubs rotation right now.
Bo
12:19
What do you make of the Mets supposedly willing to shop DeGrom and Syndergaard? Chances either are moved?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
I'd guess that the chances they move one of the two might be as high as 50/50, but that it would take a massive package for either and perhaps an agreement from the other one on a long-term extension so as to more clearly lay out what they're trying to do. And neither pitcher is going to wind up with the Yankees.
Mike
12:21
What does Bumgarner need to do over the rest of his career to make a strong case for the Hall of Fame (in addition to staying off dirt bikes)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
He's obviously got the postseason credentials, but because AT&T is such a pitchers' park, he hasn't racked up particularly high bWARs so far;  5.1 in 2015 is his highest (or 5.7 in 2016 including his batting, which counts in JAWS) and that makes for a pretty low peak from an advanced stat perspective. He's never finished higher than 4th in a Cy Young vote, either. I'd say he's got a hell of a lot of work to do, still.
Ryan
12:24
Also- please check out the new Baseball Americana exhibit at the Library of Congress, opening tomorrow!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Another reason to come out to DC!
Lou
12:25
What would help the Dodgers more, getting an impact bat like Machado or getting a reliable bridge to Jansen like Hand?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
They have a much greater need for bullpen help than for offense. I have a hard time envisioning them giving up the kind of package that the Orioles are rumored to want in exchange for Machado.
That said they do have outfield depth from which to deal, and so if they can build somethign around a guy like Alex Verdugo, maybe that's a start
Jeff
12:27
My wife and I have mlb.tv and were discussing what AL team we want to be our Mets-alternative. She said the Angels because of Mike Trout, but I'm worried that the Angels are basically just like watching the Mets if the Mets happened to have Trout. I'm thinking the Mariners? Or is that similarly setting us up for late-season heartbreak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Other than Yankees/Red Sox in the AL East, and the battle for home field advantage that also includes the Astros, the entire AL playoff picture may boil down to whether the Mariners or the Angels will get a wild card spot. Both teams have reasons to watch but the Angels are fading and they just lost Zack Cozart for the year due to a torn labrum. I'd suggest checking out both teams — definitely get you some Trout — and seeing if either calls to you as worthy of your rooting interest. There's also the NL West and Central races to get involved in if you want to keep your distance from any conflicting emotions within the NL East.
Babe Lincoln
12:30
deGrom for Cy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Right now it seems to be deGrom and Scherzer as the top two. It depends how well each of them holds up over the course of the season.
Mike
12:31
Is Bryce Harper costing himself significant FA $$?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Eh, probably costing himself some money, but by the time all of the opt-outs and other bells and whistles are in his deal, it's not going to matter. He'll snap out of this slump sooner or later. and get a very large contract.
Nick
12:32
Will the Braves make the playoffs as their roster stands now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Like every other contender, they'll need some reinforcements, particularly because they need to be mindful of the workloads of their youngsters and the injury histories of guys like McCarthy and Sanchez. Third base, veteran starter, bullpen — i'd expect them to fill at least two of those needs in the coming weeks.
Mike
12:34
The Cubs, Dodgers, and Nats all sit at about 85% chance of playoffs, and none lead their division. Who is the most likely to miss the playoffs of these 3?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
The Dodgers, if they don't get Kershaw back in working order.
Mike
12:35
Which MLB pitchers, if their careers ended today, would make the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Kershaw is the only lock from among today's pitchers given his three Cy Youngs and dominance — he'd get a Koufax-like short career exception. Verlander, Greinke, Sabathia and Scherzer still have a good deal of work to do, and Kluber a massive amount given his late start.
tyler
12:37
Do you mention Dwight Evans in your book?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Yes. He's 15th in JAWS among RF and I did a capsule write-up of him. He's a bit below the WAR standards but worth discussing.
Stats Dude
12:39
Do you query your own database to build a statistical argument, or do you query an existing database, i.e. Statcast?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Learning SQL is something on my to-do list, and maybe other database stuff as well, but right now, I grind through publicly available stuff like B-Ref and http://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
Bo
12:40
Cause for concern yet if you're the Cubs?
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