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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/28/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
That rotation is a mess besides Lester, whose underlying peripherals give me concern anyway, as I noted earlier this week. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lesters-high-wire-act/
Moltar
12:43
I'd say Harper is costing himself significant money - not in percentage of overall contract, but the difference between a $300m deal and a $350m deal is still 50 million dollars. That is very significant!!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
In terms of the overall sticker value yes but if he's going to opt out after 3-4 years, you're probably talking about a difference in the length of a deal that won't be fulfilled anyway.
Bill
12:45
Any optimism with Amed Rosario? Seems like he's improved his approach and K% but the stat line is ugly
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I'm optimistic based on the fact that he's still 22, but beyond that... a 3.1% walk rate and negatives in the defensive metrics don't fill me with much hope.
Jkim
12:47
What is the baseball equivalent of Korea beating Germany yesterday?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
My more soccer-attuned pal offers the 1988 Dodgers or 19990 Reds over the A's in their respective World Series.
The patch KHole in Calhoun's bat
12:48
Verlander is a lock for HoF, RoY, he was league MVP/CYA (multiple top 5 finishes) and has a WS ring now. Plus, he married a super model
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Of the guys I listed after Kershaw, he's the best positioned, but he's no lock yet. You just can't call any pitcher whose career ends at 35 (which is what the question proposed, career ending today) with one Cy Young and fewer than 200 wins a lock.
Bo
12:51
Braves just DL'd McCarthy to bring Acuna off the DL (on an off day no less)... Surely they're planning to make another move since it would've been more beneficial to option Wisler who just pitched.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
John
12:53
Has too much been made about the Mariners window closing this year or next? They're a pretty good team right now and are getting very little production from the so-called "core" all of the writers seem to harp on (Cano, Cruz, Felix). It seems DiPoto has created a team to compete for a while with the likes of: Segura, Gordon, Haniger, Gonzales, Diaz, Paxton, etc. All of them under the age of 30.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Cruz is having an excellent season with the bat (154 wRC+, tops on the team), but yes, you make a good point about the fact that Dipoto has quietly rounded up a younger core to offset the aging vets. It remains to be seen if they can sustain what they're doing but it's a good start on the team's next phase.
El Torito
12:57
Gleybar Torres was moved at the deadline to help the Cubs end their WS drought. Which top prospect will be moved at the deadline in order to help a contender?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
My wild-ass, no-research-besides-skimming-a-top-100 list is the Nationals' Victor Robles, who's been injured and leapfrogged by Juan Soto, but if that sentence doesn't already contain enough caveats, then let's just say that I've heard nothing about their desire to move him, and htat I'm not sure they have a big enough need to fill yet that would require punting him.
Matt VW
12:59
Are we seeing the end of Dustin Pedroia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I hope not, but it's hardly uncommon for second basemen to fall off the map at this stage of their careers.
Vader
1:01
Do you see the A’s dealing Cahill, and what kind of return could he net?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
No. Given that the A's have actually passed the Angels in the AL West standings, they're theoretically in play for a wild card spot if they play very well and one of the Yanks/Sox/Mariners group hits the skids. They're more likely buying than selling.
Bill
1:04
Dustin Fowler seems like he's being overlooked regularly. Just because of the platoon situation? Seems like he has some upside
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Eric and Kiley have him as a 50 FV guy on their revised top 100 list so yes, there's certainly some upside there. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/
Aaron
1:07
Do the Rockies try to dump one of those bad reliever contracts if they keep playing like garbage? As a Braves fan, I'd really like to kick the tires on Jake McGee to get him out of Coors.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
Relievers struggling in the first year of big multi-year contracts? Yeah, you can bet the other 29 teams are lining up around the block to take on those deals.  

I kid. I don't see any of them being moved because of how much $ the Rockies would have to eat, and it's generally pretty bad form to move a player you just signed to a long-term FA deal six months ago. That guy has committed to being there, and it looks Marlins-level bad if you turn it into a fire sale 6 months later.
Bo
1:11
Any big names that could be dealt that aren't as talked about? Guys like Stroman or Moustakas.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Moose will surely be moved. Stroman has had shoulder issues and underperformed, and there's absolutely no incentive for the Blue Jays to sell low on him.
David B
1:13
The with the indians Bullpen being as dumpster-fire as it is, the reds trading iglesias to them makes too much sense, right? What kind of return would the reds expect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
lots of Iglesias questions. He's a good reliever with a non-elite strikeout rate and two more affordable years ($10 million total) beyond this. I'm skeptical that a deal at this juncture would bring back somebody that could (but might not) turn into a bigger-impact player beyond another late-game reliever who's less established but with more club control.
JB
1:18
Matt Harvey...few lucky starts or has he figured it out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
He's stopped the bleeding — no homers allowed in his last 3 starts, against Pirates, Cubs and Braves. Beyond that I haven't really checked into him; i'd look at the quality of contact lately. If he keeps this up, he's at least worth taking a flyer on at the deadline, bur right now that's still a big if.
Slew
1:21
Should Cleveland be trying to pry Machado free?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
If they can get him without burning down the farm system, I think he makes a lot of sense, putting him at 3B and moving Jose Ramirez to 2B. That would be one hell of an infield with those two and Lindor.
Nick
1:22
How does fangraphs acquire it's statistical information? I mean do they get a data dump every night from some source or what?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Multiple sources, as I understand it. I don't think there are any big secrets about it, but I don't know a lot.
Matt D
1:23
Is Josh Donaldson on the David Wright injury plan(TM) or will we see him again, productive healthy and in the lineup?  If so, which year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
Jeez. Donaldson has a calf strain, not spinal stenosis. That said, I doubt he's going to be much of an impact player this year; I think the Blue Jays will get a better return trying to sneak him through waivers in August or simply holding onto him and seeing if he bites on a qualifying offer with a chance to shore up his value after 2019 .
Ddubbs
1:24
Why is Scooter Gennett not valued higher around the league? He's the best offensive second baseman in the National League and it's not really close
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
Ozzie Albies begs to differ, at least in the grand scheme (i.e., not a couple of hot months by a guy with a sharp mid-career uptick).

Gennett can be useful for a contender for sure, but we're still talking about a guy with a 6% walk rate, a .386 BABIP and not-great defensive metrics at second.
El Mago
1:29
So I’m biased as a Cubs fan, but is Javy Baez viewed by outsiders as the most exciting player in baseball? Every day he makes an amazing defensive play, and his offensive numbers(minus the OBP) are great!! All-Star this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
The MOST? i dunno but he's certainly fun to watch given his defense, speed and power, and in spite of that ugly 4% walk rate. Quite possibly an All-Star, yes.
Yup
1:31
Do you think Degrom will return more than Sale did if traded? Mostly because there are really no aces on the market this summer
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