JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/3/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 6/3/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:55

Considering that Aaron Boone will be the manager I think there's a good chance if he doesn't bottom out in June.

Oh hey, my Astros piece is up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-high-profile-injuries-and-struggle...

Tigs

12:56

What’s Dylan Crews’s ceiling?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

He was a 60 FV prospect — a future All-Star — according to Eric Longenhagen and others on the preseason lists, and I don't think eight weeks of struggling to start his age-23 season changes that.

Matt

12:58

At BRef, the similarity scores by age for Aaron Judge have me wondering both how good Brian Giles was and, at the same time, is Brian Giles really the best comparison for the career arc Aaron Judge is on? Becoming part of the "one of the best hitters ever" conversation in your early thirties?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Similarity scores by age are pretty outmoded at this point, as they depend on raw stats and make no reference to scoring context. Giles was an excellent, underrated player but also a real creep https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/24/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-brian-...

1:01

I wouldn't compare Giles to Judge except that they're All-Star outfielders with power and patience who played in the 21st century. Giles was built like a fire hydrant. Dave Winfield with more power and patience would be a better comp given Judge's size.

Cube Jockey

1:01

Does the Eras Committee take some of the fun out of speculating about HOF voting? Eventually a panel of 16, with some likely to have a professional connection to the candidates, will get a change to overturn the collective opinion of the baseball writing community.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

There are times when the collective opinion of the baseball writing community hasn't been worth a warm bucket of spit, and times when it's just been completely polarized by PEDs. The format drives me nuts and could use reform; it's imperfect but so is the writers' vote.

Larry

1:04

Brett Baty or Cam Smith for the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Smith's path to playing time is unimpeded. Baty's is more complicated given the Mets' depth but I do think he's making some real progress

War2d2

1:05

If Burnes is indeed out for the remainder of the season the DBacks are almost certainly going to have to sell, right? As it is they’re 7.5 out and 3 games under. What parts do you think they’d move in that scenario? Suarez seems like a perennial trade candidate, but I don’t know what his contract status is offhand.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

You can see every player's contract status at RosterResource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/diamondbacks

1:07

Suárez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, and Josh Naylor are their pending free agents. If they do sell, I'd bet on most or all of those guys to move, but i"m not convinced we're there yet — remember, the Diamondbacks did make the playoffs without Burnes last year. They really do need Gallen to turn it around, though.

Ben Clemens wrote about the Arizona starters today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotatio...

HOF Managers

1:07

How do you think the Hall will treat these more middle-management type managers in the future? Are Dusty, Bochy, and Francona the last active ones you see getting in?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Not at all. Dave Roberts is already clearly on his way, and guys like Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell has laid some groundwork, but they'll have to win the big one to have a real shot. Alex Cora and A.J. Hinch have accomplished a lot and were quickly forgiven for their roles in their teams' sign-stealing scandals, so they have a chance too.

Mike

1:11

Is Logan Webb just boring good or what? I haven't heard much about him, but he's pacing the National League in fWAR, averaging over 6 innings per start, and has increased his k rate to over a batter per inning. Are we just spoiled with how consistent he has been over the past few years?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think it's that plus the Giants not really doing much of note since winning 107 games in 2021 — they haven't finished above third in any season and have been .500ish in each. Ben Clemens did a nice deep dive on him recently if you're in the mood to celebrate him https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-wide-webb/

Matt VW

1:13

Just following up on your Yankees Stadium remark: which MLB ballpark has the best food?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I haven't been to anywhere close to all of them but I've liked Petco (4-5 visits in the past half-decade) and Target (way back in its 2010 inaugural season) the most

Tom

1:18

% chance that Lindor retires as a consensus Top 5 SS of all-time? He won't be catching Honus or Cal, but he seems to be closing in fast on the Bankses, Jeters, and Younts.

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I think he's got a very good shot at being a top-5 post-integration shortstop. Here's the WAR leaderboard through age-31 seasons (his still has ~100 games to go):

1:22

Everybody else ahead of him but Trammell and Ripken moved off of shortstop in mid-career; A-Rod, Banks, and Yount were no longer shortstops even at age 31. So I like Lindor's chances.

1:24

By the way, the man is a damn joy to watch these days. He had another leadoff homer (6th of the year, I think) and a run-saving stop in the late innings last night. If Ohtani and Judge didn't exist I might call him my favorite ballplayer to watch these days.

Bill

1:25

New York fans are admittedly spoiled with the SNY presentation and GKR booth. I know you watch a good share of Mets games, but you probably watch plenty of other markets as well. Is SNY the tops -- and, whether yes/no -- who else is up there?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

SNY might have the best booth though sometimes Keith Hernandez's curmudgeonliness rubs me the wrong way. The Dodgers' Joe Davis, the Tigers' Jason Benetti, and the Cubs' Boog Sciambi are my favorite play-by-play guys alongside Cohen but it's tough for me to evaluate booth vs. booth because I don't have large samples of their sidekicks (I like some of the Dodgers' analysts much more than others, for example).

Smokin' Jim Leyland

1:29

Before his injury in Spring Training, I was really high on Parker Meadows as a major breakout candidate after his strong second-half and postseason - he was really instrumental in the Tigers streak. Is it possible his return last night is the equivalent of adding another stellar regular via trade for Detroit?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Meadows has performed and projected as a 3-4 win player, so stellar may be a bit of a stretch for a guy who was only recently a 45 FV prospect, but he's going to help the Tigers, for sure.

Alec

1:30

Why does an RBI flyout count as a sacrifice fly, and an RBI bunt counts as a sacrifice bunt, but an RBI groundout remains an RBI groundout? The bunt I can understand, though it's tough conceptually for me to think someone who hits a fly ball with a runner on third is intending to get out to drive the run in, or at least trying more than someone who hits a ground ball to the right side with a runner on third

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Good question. I think part of it is intent, hence the notion of sacrifice that gets attributed. Many big leaguers can certainly find a ball to put into the air with a runner on third when the situation demands it; the Dodgers' Will Smith may be the best in the game at that. Groundballs are generally less optimal, and increase the chances of making multiple outs with one swing.

Pitching

1:34

On the perpetual question regarding SP and the Hall, which has a greater chance of opening the flood gates: (1) a BBWA victory for someone like Felix, DeGrom, Wheeler, or even Sale (200 seems to be impossible, though he could end up with 75+ more than Jake); or (2) a Committee pick of a Johan, Cone, Orel, or Stieb? Has to be (1), right? At some point, the electorate will get bored drawing a line at Greinke that may never be surpassed.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I'd put my money on Sale being the guy to change the conversation. One-and-done guys just don't get enough — or in most cases any — shots via committee so I wouldn't hold my breath on any of those guys even though I like them all as candidates, at least to a point.

Phillies

1:37

The team clearly needs help in the outfield. Do you think they’ll actually move any of the current starters, whether to a reserve role or trade/waivers? Castellanos particularly has been blah his whole contract and they’ve made no indication of even reducing his playing time.

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I think they have to do something, if they intend to contend. Castellanos can't continue to get by on his uncanny ability to homer while the rest of the world is going to hell in a handbasket, Kepler is never going to be more than a league-average hitter, and Marsh/Rojas just isn't enough in center when those are your two corners. Something's gotta give.

Bob Loblaw

1:41

Do the White Sox have something with Vargas? Dodgers are usually pretty good at developing talent, but looks like the Sox have unlocked another gear.

Jay Jaffe

1:42

I think this is what the Dodgers envisioned, more or less — they just had different needs at the deadline last summer so they traded him to get someone they've REALLY liked for a long time (Edman) and someone they thought they could fix (Kopech). And flags fly forever so I don't think they regret the trade.

Bosoxforlife

1:43

Do you foresee Rafael Devers ever returning to the field on a regular basis, and on the same vein, would he be the Red Sox 3rd baseman if Bregman opts out?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Man, I think the path back to third base for Devers is a smoldering bridge right now. If Craig Breslow isn't scared of picking up the phone to talk to Devers, he ought to be.

1:45

I think Devers is a DH long term and would be surprised if we see him at 3B for more than emergency situations so long as he's in Boston. Maybe post-trade (inevitable if not imminent) he tries first base somewhere else

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