JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/6/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/6/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:02

Hi folks, and welcome to today's chat, the last one I'll be doing before heading up to Cape Cod for a week and a half.

12:04

it's an annual tradition in the Jaffe-Span household, spearheaded by my awesome mother-in-law, Paula Span (who writes for the New York Times). I'll be doing at least one chat and filing a few articles from up on the Cape (Wellfleet, to be more specific), and I just booked a very cool interview to conduct while I'm up there. Also scheduled to see at least one Cape Cod League game, which should be fun.

Anyhoo, let's get to...

Fred

12:06

Does Stanton opt out if he comes back and plays to projections in the second half and in 2020, or does he have to get back to MVP-type levels?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

If Stanton were to opt out, he'd be 30 years old and bypassing a minimum guarantee of $218 million over his next seven seasons, including the final buyout. Given last year's dip in productivity, this year's absence, and the industry's changing free agent dynamic, right now I have a hard time imagining he's going to do better than that, particularly as most of the other situations to which he'd be checking in lack the guaranteed commitment to compete that comes with being a Yankee.

Bread Gardner

12:10

I don't think the HOF has anyone representing the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League (AAGPBL); do you think it should? Do you think a woman will ever break into MLB or MiLB?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

I'm not opposed to it in theory but the league was only around from 1943-1954. Did any stars play the 10-year minimum? what do the stats even look like? I think the best way to do it would be to honor a few of them under a "modern pioneer" designation (i.e., for something besides an MLB career), an umbrella that could also fit trailblazers such as Lefty O'Doul, Bill James, Pete Palmer and more.

Srhkthew2

12:14

Why is Musial listed as a RF on JAWS even though he has more games and innings at both 1B and LF?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

JAWS position classification is based upon where a player had the most value, not necessarily the most games, which is why Ernie Banks is classified as a shortsto. The longer answer is in the book but the short answer re Stan the Man is that he had more value during his years as a RF, 45.5 WAR in seasons where that was his primary position, compared to 38.8 in years where he primarily played LF and 35.3 in those where he was at 1B.

Voldemort

12:17

RIP Keston Hiura

Jay Jaffe

12:23

Let's not be overly dramatic, please. Hiura hit well, but the Brewers liked what they saw from Shaw on his rehab assignment and are optimistic that he can turn his season around. I suspect that Hiura will be back very soon, and wouldn't be at all surprised if the Brewers do a bit of experimenting to see if he can get by at another position so as to carve out a bit of playing time for him.

Bread Gardner

12:23

How much do you weight "narrative" in your HOF ballots? How often is a good/bad narrative enough to get a borderline candidate over the line/stop him short of it?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I guess it depends what you mean by narrative. There are the numbers, both traditional and advanced, and there are the more subjective factors — how was he viewed during his time, did he get screwed out of playing time, was he a difference-maker in the postseason or close pennant races, did he win awards and honors, did he achieve something of historical importance, was he caught using PEDs — that are perfectly valid to consider as well. It varies from case to case how much weight to apply to all of that but yes, it can certainly put a player over the top or not.

Avid Chat Reader

12:26

It's June and Gio Urshela is still hitting pretty damn well. When Miguel Andujar comes back, what do you think NYY will do? What do you think they should do?

Jay Jaffe

12:30

There's a missing piece of information there, and it's quite a large one: how Urshela's performance holds up over the next four months. I think that will go a long way towards determining whether he fits on next year's roster. Secondarily, it could matter whether he's able to handle other positions in a utility role of the type that led Cashman to sign DJ LeMahieu.

I do think that Luke Voit's performance thus far minimizes the chance that Andujar gets to try a position switch along those lines. He may be the odd man out once he shows himself to be healthy.

mike sixel

12:31

Rather than speculate on what RPs might now be available, I'll ask you to speculate when the first one will be traded....I'm guessing in 5 weeks. You?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

Now that the draft is over and the Kimbrel domino has fallen, I think the general industry consensus is that the trade market is going to start heating up very soon — remember, there's also no waiver period (August 31 deadline) anymore. I'd guess we have a reliever trade within two weeks and it wouldn't surprise me at all if something went down, like, before this chat even ends.

Dave in London

12:34

Thanks for chatting Jay. What’s the likelihood that the Tigers trade Matt Boyd, who has three years of team control remaining after this season, before the trade deadline? If they do trade him, wouldn’t ownership/management essentially be telling their fans, “We don’t expect to compete within the next three years, so we’re trading our best starting pitcher?”

Jay Jaffe

12:39

From the standpoint of fan engagement, it is indeed an awful look to deal one of the team's few bright spots, a guy who as you say has three remaining years of control.

That said, the Tigers' rebuild isn't going so well. Our pre-draft farm system rankings placed them 19th in prospect value (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/), which jibes generally with where Baseball America and ESPN ranked their systems pre-season (14th and 18th, respectively). I guess it depends upon what kind of offers they get for Boyd.

In short, Detroit is a land of many contrasts.

Cameron Kear

12:40

How long do you think until the Mets get rid of Callaway?

Jay Jaffe

12:40

I would be surprised if he's still employed by the end of the All-Star break, but then again, I'm already surprised he's still employed.

Tim

12:41

Altuve really seemed to change his approach this year. With the leg injury are we going to see a new Altuve when he's back? Can't imagine he'll be running much, so SB will go WAY down. Think he just starts swinging for the fences and a .310+ average is a thing of the past?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I wrote about Altuve just after he went down (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injury-has-interrupted-the-rare-jose-altuv...). I think it's likely that his approach changed temporarily due to injury/discomfort, and that the Astros, since they're kicking ass all over the place even with a depleted roster, are going to give him time to get right. This may not be an All-Star caliber year from him but I don't know if it's necessarily the end of his days as a high-average hitter.

Hello

12:44

Do you ever get tired of producing so much HOF-specific content?

Jay Jaffe

12:47

On the one hand, it can be a little frustrating to be typecast, as though the work I do for the other 10 months of the year doesn't quite measure up to the same standard. On the other, I’m thrilled that I get to write about baseball daily for a living and proud that my expertise on the subject of the Hall is recognized and guarantees some amount of attention to my work on an annual basis. I'd love to be as good at something else within this field as I am at the Hall stuff, but I still find the topic fascinating, and I'm plenty happy to play the hits, so to speak.

12:49

Sorry for the slower pace at the start of this chat. Banh mi, wandering toddler, and rocking out to the late, great Roky Erickson (a favorite of mine) ... only the last of those is still a factor now.

Your cranky urologist

12:49

As of today, how do you feel about your NL East pick?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

As discussed in a FanGraphs Audio podcast that I recorded yesterday with Meg Rowley and that will be posted today, the failure of a 4-team NL East race to materialize is one of my biggest disappointments thus far. And obviously, the Nationals' sub-.500 record are part of that. That said, they've won 9 of 11, and I still think they've got too much talent to suck as badly as they have (though holy hell, that bullpen). I'm not quite ready to shovel dirt on them, though I bet they'd get better results with a better manager than Davey Martinez.

Randy

12:57

I read your article on the Dodgers bullpen and loved it. Who could the Dodgers target before the trade deadline for bullpen help?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Thanks (Randy is referring to this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/powerhouse-dodgers-bullpen-misadventures-s...). I mentioned a few guys near the end of the piece, target-wise. The best trade target will probably be Ken Giles, but he's going to cost a lot in terms of talent. Will Smith (the Giants pitcher) could be hard to land given the Dodgers' lack of trade history with the Giants (the last one was in 2007, and the 1956 Jackie Robinson trade was the fourth-most recent https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1...), though maybe the presence of Farhan Zaidi in SF changes that. Sean Doolittle if the Nationals do fall out of the race for good.

Beyond that, there are a few recently released guys worth sifting through based on their track records — Luke Gregerson, Dan Jennings, Addison Reed — because they'll cost essentially nothing.

Mike

1:06

Sup Jay— you can only keep three of four: Nick Senzel, Cavan Biggio, Brandon Lowe, Michael Chavis. Need to make a move with Didi on his way back soon.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I don't normally answer fantasy questions because I haven't played in nearly a decade, but I can tell you that based on their recent prospect outlooks Biggio is the least likely of those guys to be a star. Eric and Kiley graded him as a 40 FV type, a second-division regular or platoon outfielder.

Tyler B

1:08

What does Jose Martinez need to do to get more playing time? or is he a PT vet at this point?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

He needs a trade to an AL team that can DH him at least some of the time. His name came up when I looked at the worst defensive metrics for outfielders in the context of Clint Frazier's rough night. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/down-goes-frazier-when-it-comes-to-defensi...

Scott of Lincolnshire

1:11

Craig. Kimbrel. Not a question. Well I probably have to ask a question to get this posted, so.................how much more meat on the bone is there for him to eat to lock himself into HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

IMO he's got a lot of work to do still. He's 52nd in reliever JAWS, which I'll fully concede isn't the be-all and end-all of analysis, but that's well below all of the enshrined relievers. He's also way down on my combined WAR, WPA, WPA/LI score. Here's a screenshot of the table circa this winter's Billy Wagner piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill...)

1:15

That was before Lee Smith's election. I wouldn't consider voting for Kimbrel until he at least passes Papelbon, I don't think.

Cory

1:16

I'm sure you'll be pretty occupied but the Provincetown Film Festival will be going on while you're in Wellfleet. They do a great job running it every year and is sponsored well. A true hidden gem, plus P-Town is a good time.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Thanks, duly noted.

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