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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/6/19
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AAAA
1:17
How much are you buying into Frankie Montas rest of season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
I haven't looked closely but offhand I like what I'm seeing. Excellent low walk rate, much better chase, whiff and strikeout rates, much higher groundball rate. I don't know that he can continue pitching *quite* this well, but he's arrived for sure.
DCW
1:20
Will Dustin Pedroia get in the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Unless something changes, I don't see it, but if the Rule of 2,000 finally falls — and there are many candidates who could topple it in theory, with Miñoso, Oliva, Allen, Grich, and Utley the most likely — then he's got a shot given his traditional accomplishments and role in the Red Sox's 2007-13 run. Still, I'd bet against it. It's a bummer the way all of this has played out
WC
1:22
Do the Rays and Red Sox end up with the two WCs? I know FG thinks so but do you agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
I think that's the most likely scenario. Cleveland's barrier to getting back into this just got higher with the Carrasco news, which ... wow, I don't even want to go there until we know more.
mike
1:23
Is dom smith actually a good major league player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
I don't think he's gonna hit for a 178 wRC+ forever but he's good enough to be a regular 1B, and I hope for his sake the Mets can make that happen with a trade, because Alonso has staked his claim on the job in Queens.
LLW
1:28
In honor of your summer trip to Cape Cod, is chowder a winter food only?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
No, and while I wouldn't eat it on a 90 degree day, it's more likely to be better the closer one is to fresh seafood.
Nick
1:29
Any idea why Tyler white hasn't been sent down to triple A?? Seems like Alvarez or Tucker would be a much better option at this point
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
I tend to agree, but I think the Astros are giving him a longer look based on what they saw last season. Also, while he's not exactly known for his 1B defense — which they need given that Gurriel is playing elsewhere in the infield at times amid the injuries — they probably regard it more highly than that of Alvarez.
Jesse from Brooklyn
1:35
Jay, any relation to Moe Jaffe, of "Bell Bottom Trousers" fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
not to my knowledge.
1:40
That Jaffe also did the lyrics to a song called "The Baseball Polka" for which I actually own the sheet music. My first wife, whose last name was Hardt, thought it was very funny that there was a Hardt-Jaffe baseball collaboration, and gave it to me as a gift https://baseballsheetmusic.omeka.net/items/show/5
Mick D
1:40
In your HOF analysis, do you ever feel comfortable ignoring a negative defensive rating? I guess the situation for Cepeda/McCovey sharing 1B/LF is the most obvious comparison or Gary Sheffield/ (a variety of bad fielding teammates) to someone like Edgar Martinez.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:43
I think there's room for skepticism about defensive metrics in this context, particularly at the extremes, and they don't get much more extreme than Sheffield. I spent a fair bit of time in my JAWS profile of him pondering that question, and if my ballot (c. 2021 onward) ever has room, he'll draw serious consideration for a spot, both on that basis and the fact that he was grossly mishandled in Milwaukee, which cost him value at the front end of his career. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-gary...
David
1:44
Thanks for your recent piece on Clint Frazier's defensive woes. Do you have a hypothesis as to what might actually be the cause of his abysmal fielding this season? As noted in your piece, the scouting report on him as a prospect suggested that he was at least an average outfielder. In addition, I honestly don't recall Frazier's route-taking and ball-tracking being this poor during the brief stretches that he was in the majors prior to the concussion last year. Some Yankees watchers have speculated that his shift over to RF is to blame, but Frazier's defense was still quite shaky when he was strictly playing LF earlier this season (e.g., that awful series in Houston in April). So what gives? Does he have case of the dreaded "yips"? Is he dealing with some sort of physical issue that, for some reason, isn't affecting his hitting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Beyond the obvious factor of sample size, I mentioned in the piece that I don't think we can ignore his concussion issues when considering his fielding issues and the suddenness with which they've turned up; after all, this was a guy who was primarily a CF until coming to the Yankees, and nobody ever considered his defense to be a major liability even after the deal... until now. His vision, concentration level, reaction time, appetite for diving and contact (such as going backwards into the wall), and overall defensive approach may all bear the effects of his injury.
Dave in London
1:49
Re: Tyler White: out of options, I believe
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:50
A quick peek at Roster Resource — which is now part of the FanGraphs family! (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/roster-roundup-may-27-31/) — reveals that is indeed the case. Good catch.
JoeyBoomBats
1:51
Brendan McKay the pitcher looks ready for the majors. Brendan McKay the hitter does not. Do you think the Rays abandon the two-way experiment because there are only so many innings in an arm? Doesn't seem prudent wasting those innings in the minors waiting for a bat that might never arrive
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
IANAPE - I am not a prospect expert - but my guess is that with only ~50 IP of high-minors work under his belt and no glaring need at the moment in Tampa Bay, there's no rush to bring him up yet, but that we cold see him later this summer (August?) once the loss to his developmental time as a hitter is minimized.
1:57
ok folks, that's it from me for the day. thanks for stopping by. I've got a Corey Seager piece in the pipeline for tomorrow and a Vlad Jr.-related idea that I'm excited about for early next week. Hopefully gonna get to that Joey Votto piece soon, too, and by the next time I chat with you, I'll have gotten my first taste of Cape Cod. Stay cool until then...
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