JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 7/1/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 7/1/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:53

I think you're misreading something. We show him with 34 K and 2 BB in 17.1 minor league innings plus 6 K and 0 BB in 4 major league innings. It's impressive, and he's probably one of the Dodgers' five best starters even if he's not being treated as such due to workload concerns. But given his 30/40 command grades from Eric, I'm going to remain skeptical until he logs more major league innings.

Best Baseball Book(s)

12:53

What's the best baseball book (BBB) you've read recently? I've enjoyed Joe Posnanski's The Baseball 100 and Why We Love Baseball. I listened to an audiobook version of Andy McCullough's excellent The Last of His Kind: Clayton Kershaw and the Burden of Greatness. Aside from The Cooperstown Casebook, any thoughts about the BBB (or at least a great baseball book [GBB])?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I have great respect for Posnanski's work but I haven't read either of those books, though I've thumbed through the 100 and read many of those essays online. Really liked Andy's Kershaw book. A couple great ones I'll tout based on recent developments are Dave Jordan's book with Dave Parker, Cobra, which really captures the slugger's voice and hard-won wisdom, and Howard Bryant's exhaustive bio of Rickey Henderson. Both are must-reads. The past couple of summers when I was up here on Cape Cod, I really enjoyed reading Thomas Gilbert's rollicking account of 19th century baseball, How Baseball Happened, and Edward Achorn bio of Old Hoss Radbourn, 59 in '84.

Lord Thunder

12:58

Do the Mets make a move to upgrade at 3B?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Between Baty, Vientos, and Maurcio, they have multiple internal options and something of a roster logjam, though not everything has gone well for those guys this year (Vientos in particular). I think CF is a bigger area of need.

Thomas M.

1:01

Regarding the Braves: Drake Baldwin looks like the real thing at C, and it's a luxury to carry two All-star catchers. What should Alex be looking for in putting Murphy on the trade block, and given the dismal nature of the Braves this season, is it better to trade during the off season rather than the trade deadline? Also, should a new SS be the priority?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I think they need to land a starter given the state of their staff, and I noted in our first subscriber mailbag (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-june-7-2025/) that Murphy is probably their top trade candidate given Baldwin's progress — but that was when they still had James McCann on the farm, and now they don't, not that it should stop them from dealing. It's kind of six of one/half dozen of the other when it comes to trading guys — the high leverage of the moment can boost a return, but so can broadening the potential market to include non-contenders. As for Allen, he's been elite defensively en route to 1.1 WAR, so I don't think he's an upgrade priority when they have some real sinkholes at 2B, LF, and CF

Dan

1:06

What's been the bigger surprise? The Tigers being the best team in the AL or the Astros being the second best?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Tigers. The Astros have been counted out many times (some of them even by me) but they always seem to find a way to be competitive. Not that I think they'll maintain this spot.

WinTwins0410

1:07

Jay, what explains Andy Pettitte’s significant rise in his HoF BBWAA vote share this past year *and* Tommy John breaking out (a little) beyond the “fewer than X votes” Eras committee vote level this year? Different electorates I know, but given your work on S-JAWS, are voters broadly having a greater appreciation for starting pitching career lengths and milestones that we may rarely if ever see again given changed usage patterns? (Separate but related, what’s going on with Verlander this year? Not the JV of old.)

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Pettitte benefitted from having Sabathia on the ballot — the two have broadly similar career numbers except for the strikeouts, though Sabathia more WAR and especially a higher peak. Tommy John is probably to some extent benefitting from the election of Jim Kaat, an inferior candidate (78th in S-JAWS for the former, 110th for the latter, plus the surgical procedure/comeback story). I do think voters respect the longevity of these guys in light of what we're seeing, but their comparatively low peaks are still stumbling blocks for many (myself included).

drplantwrench

1:11

angels have over-performed a lot of expectations to reach .500 but have a brutal july schedule. what do you think they end the month as?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Sellers

Guest

1:14

What more does Cal Raleigh need to do to have what’s considered the best catcher batting line in a season?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I think the gold standard is Piazza's 1997 (.362/.431/.638, 183 wRC+, 40 homers in a higher-offense era but a terrible hitters' park). Raleigh might pull it off given that he has an even higher wRC+ and is on pace to set a home run record, but I'm skeptical he won't regress given his workload.

1:17

AL/NL catcher seasons since 1920 by wRC+ there. I'm surprised Johnny Bench's 45-homer 1970 season isn't there too

Sodo Mojo

1:18

With Corbin Carroll out do you think the Dbacks look to sell Naylor and Suarez earlier to maximize their return?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I can see possibly trading both at some point even if they're still plausibly in contention, but especially regarding Suarez, they need to see Lawlar hit major league pitching. Wrote about the situation a bit recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-a-deluge-of-injuries-the-diamondbacks...

not the lunch guy

1:20

Re: Rays monitoring Franco, I feel like the MLBPA and even the owners would pretty strongly want to avoid that. For the union it's a plausible route towards team overreach in players' personal lives, and for the owners it gives them possible legal culpability in any case that does arise

Jay Jaffe

1:20

exactly

Sam

1:22

If Raleigh and Judge both keep it up and Judge wins MVP, where would Raleigh's season rank on the all time list of "best seasons to not be MVP"?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Willie Mays averaged 9.5 bWAR from 1954–66 and took home just two MVP awards in those 11 seasons. Piazza didn't win MVP in 1997. Mike Trout should have won more MVP awards. Plenty of great pitcher seasons probably deserved MVP consideration. Raleigh could wind up in esteemed company but we'll need to see the specifics to know how he'll fit into the group.

I don't think the AL MVP race is over, either. Especially if he does sustain his remarkable production and Judge tails off.

Blake

1:24

Who do you think is the most "5 tool" player right now? I did a statcast search of xBA, Max Exit Velo, Sprint Speed, Arm Strength and OAA. Then saw who had the highest percentile in their worst attribute. This led me to Fernando Tatis. Also Cam Smith was surprisingly high.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I don't know the answer but that's a fun one to think about.

War2d2

1:25

re: baseball books: Kahn’s “The Boys of Summer” lives up to the hype.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

of course, but I was going for recent great books that I've read, not a starter list of the all-time greats.

War2d2

1:27

My vote will always be for the Scherzer deal being there best signing ever, not least because the Cubs wound up paying basically the same (after deferrals) for Lester that offseason, and 2016 aside he was basically a #4 starter being paid like an ace. The same meatheads that hate Ian Happ will talk about Lester like he was the second coming of Koufax.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

2016 ain't nothin', flags fly forever... and that was a huge win for the Cubs

1:28

Jay, we see "future hall of famer" bandied around all the time - how long into a career do you traditionally personally have to wait and see before you start even saying someone is on a HOF trajectory?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

progress towards a 40-WAR 7-year peak is basically my yardstick. Has this guy started banking seasons worth 6 WAR or more? or at least 5 WAR? because if he doesn't a handful of those, chances are it's just cloud talk

Lord Thunder

1:29

Seems like there's a lot of future HOFers currently active. I know there are a lot more teams than say when Mays, McCovey, Aaron, F. Robinson, etc. were active together, but does today's crop outnumber that of, say 15 or 20 years ago?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Those guys were 40-50 years ago not 15-20!

1:32

based on historical data, you would expect something on the order of 1.5 HOFers per team per year once all the committee processes play out, but I think it would be tough to get to 30 right now, let alone 45, given the trends in starting pitcher usage that we've touched on above.

Roland the Farter

1:32

Volpe- what’s the deal? Staying up, sent down, trade?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I don't see the Yankees making a move to replace him anytime soon. He's in a slump and I understand he had some issues last night but he's still an above-average and inexpensive young player, which is what the Yankees need.

The person who asks the lunch question

1:33

What's for lunch?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Good question. i think i'm going to either make a salami sandwich with a side of chips, or a fancied-up bowl of ramen noodles with some veggies and an egg.

And, looking at the clock, it's about that time. Thanks so much for stopping by! I'm off next week, so no chat. We'll resume this when I'm back in Brooklyn.

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