You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/22
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Inaccessible Rail
2:40
I feel like the AL wildcard race has gotten genuinely interesting with the Orioles and Mariners suddenly in it, maybe even the Rangers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Yup, we've suddenly got nine teams with a 23% chance or better to make the playoffs. I hope they all stick around.
Matt VW
2:42
The Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are the four leading contenders for the three AL wild card spots. Which one do you see ending up on the outside looking in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Either the Mariners or the Red Sox, though the number of injuries the Rays are sustaining could catch up to them
don
2:42
do you think hunter greene will ever be an all star level starter? closer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I think he can be an All-Star starter but he's gonna need an effective third pitch and that will take some time. Man cannot live by fastball alone.
James
2:44
At this point, Stanton seems pretty likely to hit 500 homers, even with his health. Is that enough for the hall or is 600 the standard now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
If he gets to 500 without scandal, he'll get into the Hall. the only 500 guys outside are ones with various links to PEDs.
Pitching
2:48
Besides Castillo and Montas if healthy, are there any other #3 or better pitchers who you think will be available at the deadline? Market looks pretty thin.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
maybe the Rockies' German Marquez or the Marlins' Pablo Lopez would fit that bill, but you're right, I see a lot of #4 and 5 types instead of better ones. Tyler Mahle, Madison Bumgarner,  Merrill Kelly, Kyle Hendricks... it ain't great.
2:51
Mea culpa: right after I waved off the Dodgers' potential pursuit of Castillo or Montas — or any major move — in last week's chat, rumors regarding their pursuit of the former surfaced. So there's that.
James
2:51
Should the commissioner use his power to force Stanton, Judge and Gallo to do the derby every year? I feel like that would be a very good way to win some fans back to his side.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I wish that were an option but let's face it, the event is physically demanding enough that nobody can be compelled in that manner to do it.
Inaccessible Rail
2:52
In looking for a DH on the trade market, shouldn't the Mets be looking at how players have fared in CitiField in the past? That's a tough place to hit. We've seen a lot of good hitters lose it when they move to Queens.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
The sample sizes for players at Citi are likely to be too small to be useful. They should be going more by how well a player fits onto their roster (what positions can he play, if any) and balances their lineup rather than worry about those. Finding somebody who can hit lefties is probably the priority.
Late career Tommy John
2:54
Is Verlander making a case for a proactive late career TJ for a pitcher that hasn't yet had one?   Especially if they want to make another run at a late career surge.  I keep thinking about those plasma injections Kershaw took last year.  Could we see a trend of intentionally taking a year off late in the career for ambitious aging pitchers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
you will not find a reputable orthopedic surgeon counseling pitchers to have "proactive" TJ and intentionally take a year off. not gonna happen.

However, most TJ surgeries do involve a UCL that are partially torn, not fully ruptured. IIRC, about a 30% tear is generally the tipping point. At most you might see a pitcher here or there willing to go that route quickly instead of doing PRP and rehab but I willl bet my shirt against anybody just up and taking a year off because he thinks it's the fountain of youth.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:58
Apolgies if this was in your Buxton piece that I didn’t get a chance to read, but why do you think his OBP is under .300 yet still having great counting stats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
it's in the piece, read it.
Sonny
2:59
Do Ohtani's improvements on the pitching side of things change your perception of his future? Going from 'high-end #2 or #3 starter with upside' to realizing that upside as one of the three best pitchers in the AL mean there is *amazingly* even more ceiling?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
It's tough to imagine even more ceiling because pitchers tend towards entropy — they can be great for awhile but tend to get dinged up or even break down. I don't think it's a coincidence that the stretch in which deGrom threw the hardest and had the most success of any pitcher in recent memory preceded a year-long outage.
Ranger fan
3:01
What are the best rental starters available this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
let's try that again, as all the pitchers I listed had at least another year of control!
3:04
Looking over the pending free agent list among starting pitchers it's actually pretty grim
3:05
like, do you want to bank on an injured Wade Miley-level grim
Jose Quintana comes to mind.
Matt
3:06
What % chance do you give Harper on making the hall of fame as of now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
well above 50% but I'm not sure how much further I'd go than that. Two MVP awards is huge
as is having that contract in place
he doesn't have to rush back from an injury with some question about where his next contract is coming from. and he's proven pretty resilient
Inaccessible Rail
3:09
How is it possible that Joey Gallo only has two career SFs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
that one blew my mind
x2R
3:09
Statcast is testing Bat speed metrics, I'm really anxious with the future development of this. What you think of that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
I think I have some reading to do as I had that tab open before having to reset for this chat https://www.mlb.com/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-statcast-bat-trac...
Insert Witty Name Here
3:11
How many players do you think will get to 50 HRs this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
1: Aaron Judge. Schwarber would be my guess for a 2nd but his odds are way lower.
Sonny
3:12
Where does Cody Bellinger's shoulder injury rank among the 'fluke injuries that derailed careers' conversation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
somewhere among the top 100. It's a very long list
T
3:13
What's wrong with Acuna?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I think he fouled a ball off his left ankle a couple months ago and has continued to have problems with the foot
Connecting…