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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/22
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Logan Gilbert
3:15
Do you think I got snubbed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Yes, but I bet that once we start hearing which pitchers aren't going to be available for Tuesday you'll be added.
Trev
3:18
Assuming Kelenic turns it around, Winker continues his upswing, Haniger and Lewis come back from the DL, Julio keeps Julio'ing, and Trammel and Moore are still fine pieces off the bench...what the heck happens in the Mariner outfield?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
"Assuming these seven best-case scenarios occur..."
3:21
that is way too much to bank on, particularly given the track records of Haniger and Lewis when it comes to injuries. Ideally I'd think they want Rodriguez, Haniger, and Kelenic in the outfield, Lewis as a fourth, and Winker as the DH, but that's still asking a lot
Inaccessible Rail
3:21
With the balanced schedule coming, are we going to see a sub .500 division winner next year? Maybe in the AL Central?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
i absolutely loathe the balanced schedule. it makes me want to vomit
You want to break apart rivalries so that players can log more air miles? Get bent.
Sonny
3:23
If you knew on March 1st you would get exactly 110 IPs of Jacob deGrom at 2021 levels how would you deploy him for that season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Probably something along the lines of what the Mets hope they're getting, somebody joining a contender in the second half of July through the end of the postseason.
Nick R
3:24
Hey Jay, a bit of a random one but would you like a world where draft picks (not just the competitive balance ones) were tradable? Is that world possible do you think
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Yes, I think that would be a good thing for competitive balance and for fan interest. I know at least a few prospect folks are into the idea, which suggests it's got some upside
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:25
Any take on Casey Close's libel suit against Gottlieb?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
the fact that nobody else was reporting what Gottlieb was reporting suggests that there wasn't enough evidence to make the allegation.
responsible reporting generally involves getting multiple sources, preferably on the record. He clearly didn't have that, and he's probably gonna pay through the nose for it
Sullen in San Diego
3:26
Padres have to trade Hosmer this year, before he reaches 5 and 10 rights. Yes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
they'll have to eat a lot of money to do so, and i don't think "first basemen who have been sub-replacement level since May began" is high on anyone's shopping list
Blue Jay's fan
3:28
Did we make a mistake letting Ray walk? He looked washed up and now has a new 2 seamer that is making him look unhittable over the last few months.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
I think if the Blue Jays had kept Ray they wouldn't have gotten Gausman so it's either/or. Both have been great at times but also inconsistent from year to year.
Inaccessible Rail
3:30
Wow, I didn't know you could post a response then pull it back!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
we do have editing functions in this chat!
SP rentals
3:30
How about Thor or Stroman?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Stroman signed for 3/$71M. Syndergaard could be a rental, I suppose.
Morlock Jimenez
3:31
How well does Willson Contreras have to age in order to be a viable HOF candidate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
He's 30 years old with net-negative pitch framing that's unlikely to improve substantially. I don't see it happening.
Blake Seams
3:33
Next guy to 3,000 hits? Altuve would seem like the logical bet; even if it's long odds. But his switch from contact to pull-side power has dropped his hit totals in recent years. The partially lost 2020 season doesn't help either.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Dan's piece from last September, with Altuve and Freeman in the lead, is still applicable https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-3000-hit-club-is-closed-for-maintenanc.... Wouldn't surprise me if Freeman has surpassed Altuve for the reasons you note
pakkap
3:34
in the realm of player development, i haven't seen a lot of hay made around the consistent growth of gavin lux - all of a sudden but 24, can play at least four positions reasonably well, and in the nl top ten in offensive win %, batting average, and on-base percentage. crazy what managing a player's development thoughtfully and giving him an ever-increasing role can do.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
thank you. Every week I get somebody asking me why the Dodgers aren't getting more out of Lux, and he keeps improving to the point that he's a very nice player.
Patience wins out
ok folks, i have to run. Thanks for stopping by and do enjoy the All-Star break!
3:36
wait, one more...
WARGP/S
3:36
When you are comparing two careers, do you ever have concerns that the compiling nature of WAR skews analysis? Obviously availability and playing more games allow a player to create more value, but is there any value in looking at WAR per game played/started for two similar careers?  Or is that splicing the stat in a way that isn't helpful?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
WAR is a useful tool and an easy shorthand, but any real comparative analysis should take into account greater context (age, injuries, career interruptions, uncertainty about defensive metrics...).
3:38
Knowing WAR is good. Knowing WAR and the context surrounding it is even better.
ok, now goodbye and see you next week!
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