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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/18/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks!
Welcome to my first chat of the second half of the 2023 season
2:02
I've got Hall of Fame on the brain after writing a four-part series on the active players making progress towards Cooperstown. Part IV just went live, covering relievers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
Yesterday's Part III addressed Ohtani and starting pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
Kyle B
2:04
Hey Jay! Over the all star break we heard a ton of talk about the new CBA and started hearing whispers about the next one….do you think we are staring down another lockout in 2026? Possibly missed games in 2027?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
there's a fun thought. While I think some owners are dumb enough to try another lockout and make noise about instituting a salary cap, that will only happen if Hell freezes over and Rob Manfred performs in the Ice Capades. I don't think we'll see missed games
Jed Skeptic
2:08
Selling Stroman and Bellinger seem like the *obvious* moves for Jed to make. What are some bolder things to consider , in order to give this org a necessary shakeup ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Probably trading cost-certainty guys such as Happ and Hoerner, not that either one is going to bring back that much because they're not exactly blowing the doors off things. Sure, you could trade a pre-arb guy like Justin Steele, but where is that really going to get you other than a couple more years away from having a nice young controllable starter? The real problem here is that this isn't a particularly young roster with high-ceiling guys. You're not going to turn it into a contender by wheeling and dealing very easily
BenZobrist4MVP
2:14
Thank you for the Cooperstown Notebook series, Jay! I'm curious about Christian Yelich, since you didn't mention him. He has had somewhat of a rebound this year and is younger than Semien with more career WAR. I know he wound need several more peak seasons, but do you think it's possible for him to get back on Hall track?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Circa 2019, Yelich looked like he was on a HOF-bound path, but in the 3 1/2 seasons since, he's totaled 7.2 WAR, which is about what he averaged in 2018-19. He's hitting the ball harder now than at any time since those two big seasons, and his 2.8 bWAR is his seventh-best season, but he's only got the aforementioned two as his seasons above 5.0 — he needs about four more good ones to really look like a solid candidate, and this is for a guy with a history of back problems. I'm just not at all optimistic.
Spach
2:18
What do you think about Trea for RoS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I think he left his mojo in Los Angeles. Jeez, what a bleak season. High chase rate, eaten alive by four-seam fastballs. Maybe you can assume some positive regression based on his age and track record but I don't think he's a guy I'd bank upon to get hot.
BenZobrist4MVP
2:20
Is pitcher defense accounted for at all in bWAR? If so, how much of a JAWS bump do great fielders like Greg Maddux, Mark Buehrle, and Zack Greinke get from their own fielding? If not, is that something we should take more into consideration or is the defensive value too negligible to matter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Pitcher defense is already baked into the run prevention and the adjustment for the quality of defense (RA9def in the Player Value section), so those guys don't get double-counted for their glovework.
Pitcher Gold Gloves: whoop-de-damn-doo
coors lightyear
2:22
how bad was the mookie betts trade
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
Honestly, it looks better today than it did at the outset of the season, which isn't saying a lot, but Verdugo is having his best year since 2020 and Wong is a cromulent backup catcher (albeit with lousy framing). And look how financially flexible the Red Sox are! They can sign aces like Corey Kluber, roll out a big extension for Trevor Story, and, uh...
Deeee
2:26
I've enjoyed your HOF series recently, possible piece on managers/front office members coming?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I'll write those guys up as candidates; i don't think it's as much fun to cover them in mid-career.
mmddyyyy
2:27
After you write about a player, are you more excited to watch them play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Yes. While of course it's watching the performances that gets me interested enough in a player to write about him, it's often *after* looking at the numbers that I gain a new appreciation and start to notice new things.
Cameron
2:29
With how bad the AL Central and how good the AL East is do you think it’s time to eliminate divisions and just have the AL/NL only?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
Division play is supposed to make it so that teams play the bulk of their games in close proximity and keep the amount of travel under control. Do away with divisions and you've suddenly got a whole lot more travel for everyone; even this year's more balanced schedule upped the total estimated air miles by 7% and certainly increased the number of times each team has to cross multiple time zones, which is what really contributes to fatigue and jet lag. I have no doubt that the division system will be reassessed in the next round of expansion, but I do hope they preserve some semblance of it; it's a hidden quality-of-life issue for the players.
Guest
2:32
For position players and pitchers, the formula for current voters seems fairly predictable, and at least fairly close to your thinking. Some blend of overall value with peak output. Throw in some weight for counting number milestones, playoff success, and whatnot. But for relievers, it seems much more arbitrary. Billy Wagner on the verge of enshrinement while Nathan and Papelbon don't get a sniff. Is the cement dry on voter thinking on relievers, or is there shifting thought on what weight to give to innings, usage, rate statistics, leverage, playoffs and more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I think with the Wagner candidacy we've seen voters get a bit more interested in rate stats, as his are so extreme. I've noted that he has the record for the lowest opponent batting average and highest strikeout rate at the 900-inning cutoff. Kenley Jansen just pitched his 800th inning, so if you lower the bar, he's got the lead in both categories. I'm not sure how much lower you can go in innings than Wagner and still be a viable candidate, though.

Long story short, I think voter opinion on relievers is somewhat malleable, but they do do enjoy some amount of sizzle, which is probably why Nathan and Papelbon didn't get far in their candidacies
Mike M
2:35
Yeah, yeah, Ohtani won't get traded, but where would you love to see him play out the rest of the season?  Assuming he did get traded
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
For selfish reasons I'd be glad to see him playing half his games in New York. The fan in me would love to see him in Dodger blue.
Curious
2:36
I have a conflict about the HoF.  On the one hand, I would like to see certain players in there, such as Bonds and Flood; but on the other, their absence is a credibility issue for me.  Paradoxically, I feel like I both care and don’t care.  Have you had to resolve a similar feeling?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
I think you have to understand that it's an imperfect institution whose membership has been shaped by some outsized forces and whose electoral processes are tinged by industry politics. I don't think there's anyone who agrees with every selection; my hope is to see some additions that I agree with to offset the ones I don't.

The other thing to remember is that the Hall isn't just the plaque room and the endless annual arguments. It's a a world-class research facility and a wonderful, quirky museum of the game's history. Over the past decade or two, the Hall has done a good job of modernizing its exhibits. It's worth a visit even if you're conflicted, because you'll find much to love there.
Chris
2:42
The Cardinals were recently rumored to cover Logan Gilbert. Would you do a Jordan walker for Gilbert trade if you were each side?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I wouldn't do this if I'm the Mariners. Walker might be a big-time bat but his defense is a negative; his value takes a huge hit if he's limited to DH, and I would rather see a zombie one-legged Bill Veeck in the outfield than see Walker chasing a fly ball.
mac
2:44
Have we seen the last contending Yankees team for years? They're already missing the playoffs this season, and they're bogged down with expensive mid-late-30s declining veterans with a continuing inability to develop their prospects into good major league hitters. What's the chance they're a last place team in, say, 3 or 4 of the next 5 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
But the magic of Sean Casey is about to turn them around!
He's going to TALK to players!
2:49
I don't think the whole picture is as dire as it looks right now. Volpe has made good progress after his early struggles, and guys like Peraza and Cabrera are too young to give up on. I think I'd trade Gleyber Torres now and open up an infield spot to give both a chance to assert themselves.
Steve
2:50
I’ve started looking at some future HOF candidates and I was surprised to see how underwhelming Yadi Molina’s WAR numbers are. What does his JAWS ranking look like?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
The short version is that his case looks a lot different once you factor in pitch framing. I touched upon it in the first installment of this year's HOF progress series above but this is probably the most recent comprehensive overview of the topic: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/well-see-you-in-cooperstown-buster-posey/
Bert
2:52
Snell and Hader for a package of Leiter and Rocker +… who say no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
The Rangers. Rocker just underwent TJ but I don't see them sacrificing him AND Leiter for rentals given the strength of the current roster.
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