JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/18/23

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Bert

2:53

If you’re the Padres do you regret making the Soto trade now? Wood continues to rise, Gore is settling in as a mid-rotation piece, Abrams isn’t walking but getting better

Jay Jaffe

2:54

I don't think so, because the Soto trade really did ignite fan interest in the team, and he'll still bring back some quality young players if they do decide to flip him (assuming they don't think they can re-sign him)

BCB

2:54

Next season the NBA is implementing a midseason tournament for a cash prize in order to bring some excitement to the early part of the schedule since a lot of people tune out until the playoff hunt. Do you have any fun gimmicky ideas that you think MLB could try out? Doesn't have to be super realistic necessarily but just interesting.

Jay Jaffe

2:57

My super-gimmicky idea is let only the top four teams in each league into the playoffs.

Scratch that, if we want to make it a little wild, yes, let's do this. Expand to 32 teams/4 divisions per league. Each division winner gets into the playoffs, and a tournament among all the other teams gets the winner the spot as the visitor in a one-game Wild Card against the worst of those division winners. A hot week could get an otherwise 100-loss team a shot in the postseason

Bert

2:57

If Tatis goes on to string together a bunch of 5-6 WAR season throughout his twenties and early thirties do you think the writers vote him in?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I think his shot at the Hall of Fame is going to depend as much on what he does off the field as on. He can still be the exciting, demonstrative player that he is, but he's going to have to carry himself as a role model and demonstrate real growth to convince voters that he understands he made a youthful mistake. I think he's capable of redeeming himself, but it's not going to happen just by stringing together 30- or 40-homer seasons.

Whoops, that's a word salad. let me re-edit.

Planet Dust

3:02

Dan briefly responded to a question (not from me) about Acuna's drop in strikeout rate in a chat a few weeks back, basically saying it looked sustainable. I was wondering if it's as dramatic as it appears and how common this sort of drop is. It seems like a huge deal to me but maybe it really isn't.

Jay Jaffe

3:03

From a recent Davy Andrews piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-time-ronald-acuna-jr-is-back/):

Acuña is taking more strikes this year, but he’s making up for it by whiffing way less. He’s cut his strikeout rate by an astonishing 11.5 percentage points, from 23.6% to 12.4%. I checked strikeout rates all the way back to 1900; excluding the shortened 2020 season, only two qualified players have ever dropped their strikeout rate by 10 percentage points:

so yes, that's pretty uncommon.

Joseph

3:04

Hey Jay! I know you made a comment about it in Part III of the Cooperstown Notebook, but do you think the Mets will trade Verlander/Scherzer and what that kind of deal looks like?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I think it's going to be very hard to deal them. Both have full no-trade protection, and both are obviously owed a ton of money, some amount of which will have to be absorbed by the Mets to get any kind of return. I can see them eating $20 million and getting a couple of top-100ish prospects, and maybe build out a larger deal to get some ready talent as well.

Marshall

3:10

How would you rank Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Grienke in terms of "greatest pitcher of the '00s"?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Probably along the lines of JAWS, with Kershaw and Verlander neck-and-neck

Failed Rebuild

3:12

Hi Jay: for teams that are out of it, why not trade someone (like CWS with Giolito) now rather than 8/1. Acquiring team gets more starts and thus more value.

Jay Jaffe

3:13

There's certainly something to be said for that, but it usually means overpaying by going the "buy it now" route instead of the auction route. Most teams on either side of such deals have a hard time pulling the trigger because they harbor hopes they can get a better deal

Anon21

3:14

Does Acuña get his 40 homers? I say yes, because I have a superstitious belief that he can just change his swing and hit 6 in a week if he wants to (based on watching him hit 6 in a week several times before).

Jay Jaffe

3:15

I don't think it's going to take superstition; he's got 23 HR now and projects for 14-15 depending on which system you're using, and for a guy who's been exceeding projections through the first half to do that in the second half as well isn't a shocker.

Pedro

3:15

What are your thoughts about how Peraza will fare now that Yankees called him up finally? Will they give him as much rope as Volpe has received? Thanks in advance

Jay Jaffe

3:16

It's a matter of opportunity. I don't know that they're going to give him a clear shot at daily playing time come hell or high water they way they did Volpe; they're probably going to have LeMahieu and/or IKF in the mix too.

Benny

3:17

What happened to Yasmani Grandal? Through 2021 he looked like a dark horse Hall candidate (at least if you count framing value and go by fWAR instead of bWAR). But the last 2 years he has been--not good. How did he so suddenly go from All-Star caliber to sub-replacement caliber? This year he isn't even walking or framing, which used to be his 2 standout skills.

Jay Jaffe

3:19

My hunch is that the knee and back injuries and his workload have caught up to him.

Chip

3:20

Jeff, I'd like to request that Fangraphs informs us ahead of time if there is going to be a week in which Cooperstown Progress Report, 2024 ZIPs Changes, and Trade Value Series all get released. I have a bunch of PTO and I took none. None!!

(Love all the stuff coming out lately. Thanks!)

Jay Jaffe

3:20

Jeff's not here, man.

3:21

July is a big month for us on the site because of the draft, the All-Star stuff, and the things you note, and later this week and all of next will feature my Replacement Level Killers series, highlighting weak spots on contenders. You might need a staycation to keep up!

Insert Witty Name Here

3:21

If Greg Maddux came up in todays game, would he still become a HoFer?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I think he'd have a harder time getting noticed due to his lack of velocity, honestly, and it could take him longer to reach the majors than his actual debut at 20. But I think he'd probably break through eventually thanks to his supreme command and pitchability.

Broader HoF

3:23

Joe Posnanski brought up Vin Scully in one of his latest blog posts, mentioning that he believes Vin should make the hall as a contributor (i.e. beyond his already having received the Frick Award), and I was curious as to your thoughts on this point. Do you feel that this is viable/that Vin deserves a spot in the Hall? Or is that opening a can of worms? (I'm not sure one way or another, though I think I side on Vin already being recognized as much or more than any broadcaster already)

Jay Jaffe

3:24

While I'd put him ahead of pretty much every other broadcaster who ever walked the earth, I think this feels like opening a can of worms, especially if it prevents voters from considering more players.

Angels help

3:25

Dodgers would probably offer the most top end prospects for Ohtani and we suck at developing our own talent unless it’s trout or Ohtani. Will Arte’s ego keep him from moving him at the deadline? Or will he be traded somewhere else?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

I think he won't be traded in part because of Arte's ego (including a belief that he can be re-signed, which absolutely won't happen if he's traded), and in part because the Angels won't be so far underwater that the move is the obvious one.

Chip Locke

3:26

Have you tried your hand at Immaculate Grid? It is a great Remember Some Guys test. Or, the sometimes more fun, Definitely Remember This Guy But Just Remembered He Spent a Miniscule Amount of Time on Team X test.

Jay Jaffe

3:28

Yes, I've been playing more or less daily for the past few weeks. It's a fun little game and I applaud both the game's inventor, Brian Minter, and the folks at Baseball Reference for recognizing a good thing and giving it a larger platform. it's a nice little success story

Jake Marogersnik

3:28

Who do you think is the next unanimous HOF entrant, if anyone? Pujols, Ichiro, Miggy, or Trout seem the most likely imo

Jay Jaffe

3:29

Ichiro is probably the only one of those I can see getting 100%. Each of the rest will have some sour asshole saying, "But he didn't do ____" or "But his contract..." and thinking that justifies a no-vote.

Guest

3:30

If you had to pick yu darvish or sonny gray ros who would you rather have?

Jay Jaffe

3:30

probably Gray because Darvish has been getting hit lately.

Astros

3:31

Shouldn’t they be more willing to exceed the tax? They just won the championship. Do you see the Belli and Stroman rumors coming true? Chicago probably wants to send money and get better prospects? Or am I reading them wrong?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

They SHOULD be willing to exceed the tax, but the war profiteer has always been frugal, and I'd bet that if a Bellinger/Strman deal goes down, it will happen because the Astros were able to stay below the threshold, possibly by unloading another salary elsewhere.

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