JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/19/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:59

I haven't seen it in its entirety in a good 15 years, but given its primary focus on sexually frustrated teen boys trying to get laid, that doesn't exactly surprise me. It's a classic of the genre, but you have to brace yourself to era-adjust for a lot of stuff that wouldnt' fly today. You could say the same thing about John Hughes' movies too — Molly Ringwald's essay in The New Yorker about her roles, particularly in the Breakfast Club, is well worth a read https://www.newyorker.com/culture/personal-history/what-about-the-brea...

fjtorres

12:59

Relievers are volatile and there were plenty available for "mere cash" in the offseason. Blowup potential way high, no?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

to paraphrase Joe Sheehan, whose newsletter you should be subscribing to, variance trumps everything when it comes to small samples, especially for relievers

1:01

FYI, Spicoli said "Aloha" and not "Hola". Unless you were watching the movie dubbed in Spanish.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/036a4873-1d09-44c5-bbbd-1a9fc1cb6b89

I don't have a transcript in front of me but he said both. Come at the king, you best not miss.

5 Run Homer

1:02

Hey! I’m 18 years old and I love Fast Times!

Jay Jaffe

1:02

sexually frustrated teen boys are a renewable resource.

v2micca

1:02

Forthcoming? I read it while I was waiting for the chat to start.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

As so often happens, particularly on Thursdays, I have become unstuck in time. I even retweeted the article, which was published 20 minutes before this chat began.

brood550

1:03

Could the Dodgers build a trade for Degrom and possibly Familia around Verdugo and Buehler?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

could; won't. I think they see Buehler as somebody who's already not that far off deGrom and has a chance to narrow the gap over the next few years.

1:04

Do you subscribe to The Athletic? There's too much good content up there to read everything.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I do, and my wife, Emma Span, is the editor of their national MLB site. I can't read it all, and Emma can't keep up with my stuff, so it evens out!

Doug

1:05

You see the Padres using Mejia/Hedges like how the Dodgers username Grandal/Barnes last year?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

are you saying I can log into your accounts with Grandal/Barnes as username/password? Thanks. I'd like a mix of $10s , $20s and $50s

Dar Yuvish

1:06

Staying on the Cardinals, do you think Norris might feel a little awkward/embarrassed with how his role has been portrayed? Or do you think he's blissfully oblivious

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I think Norris should feel awkward and embarrassed but it seems highly likely that he doesn't. If I'm Mozeliak, I'm trading him yesterday.

1:07

It's obviously time to worry about Byron Buxton in the batter's box. But how worried on the 1-10 scale should we be?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

playing though the broken toe and the migraine issues is almost certainly a factor in his performance, and they'll wind up burning a year of his club control in a noncompetitive situation in part due to that. I still think the upside is very high but that they need to manage him more closely, and encourage him NOT to just "tough it out" in order to get the most out of him.

1:10

With the Braves and Phillies on the rise, and the Nationals' window closing, should Washington go all-in this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Even if Harper walks, Scherzer, Strasburg, Rendon, Turner, Soto, Robles (assuming they don't trade him) et al isn't a window that's closing imminently. That said, I do think they should be aggressive given the strong possibility this is their last chance to win with Harper, and the pressure to get out of the first round for the first time.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

1:12

How was the Politics and Prose event? My lovely mother and sister went in my stead and picked up the books for me, and the pod-catcher of my choice has not uploaded the audio of the event just yet. My Mom's takeaway: "I have so many questions. What is 'clutch?'"

Jay Jaffe

1:14

the event was great! It felt like the BP annual events of yesteryear that I was privileged to be a part of. Our conversation was fun, and according to the event guy we had 120-140 people in house, and I know we Sold Some Damn Books. Thanks to everybody who came out, and especially those who bought books, your mother and sister included. I too was told there would be audio made available, so I'm hopeful it surfaces soon

Smokey

1:14

In a 7x7 H2H with OPS, offensive K's, L's, and K/BB as the extra categories. I just traded away Zack Greinke and Mike Clevinger for Carlos Carasco and Matt Olson (I need power with Donaldson out with a hangnail and my pitching is stacked). How'd I do?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Beats me, I don't play fantasy. Sorry.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

1:15

Speaking of ambassadors to the game, perhaps Mr. Manfred could use some better marketing, as he has somehow convinced hordes of baseball fans that he hates the game and wants to ruin it with his pace of play initiatives. His level of visibility must be up there with the tier of players after Trout/Betts/Judge/Altuve.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I didn't think it was possible for a commissioner to surpass Bud Selig in negative charisma but I'll be damned if Rob Manfred hasn't done so in short order. Anything other than "Thank you Jeebus for this bounty of young, diverse and marketable players such as Trout, Harper, Judge, Lindor, Ramirez, Betts, Correa and Altuve" is doing it wrong.

CubFan

1:18

Do the A's trade Treinen? Do you think the A's should trade Teienen?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Good question. He was mentioned by Olney and Morosi in pieces I linked, ones that were written before the A's surge, which has their odds at a postseason spot up to a respectable 29%. I think they should listen on Treinen, because they might be bowled over, but I also think that there's a very human cost to trading him, one that sends the wrong message to his teammates and the fans: "Hey, it's cool we've won some games but we're just gonna spin our wheels for awhile again."

Given the extent to which the Mariners have overachieved relative to their run differential, the A's owe it to themselves to stay ready to pounce on a wild card spot.

Swarlos

1:23

Do you think Utley's HOF campaign will be handicapped by a lack of support from the NY chapter of the BBWAA?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I don't think the NY chapter of the BBWAA is particularly sympathetic to the Mets. That's not the way this works.

Moltar

1:24

Would the Dodgers be able to fit Familia in under the cap? He seems like he'd take the least amount of prospect capital to acquire. Surely they have a single-A reliever the Mets are interested in.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I haven't seen the post-Machado luxury tax projections but I think they're going to need a bit of creativity, and some of it probably involves swallowing hard and moving a guy that they generally like in order to create some wiggle room. Maybe it's Ryu, maybe it's Puig or a 50% discount on the rest of Rich Hill's deal... I dunno, but they'll find a way to add whoever they feel they need.

1:27

What could Carlos Martinez fetch if dealt? Any chance the Cards will consider moving him, either now or in the offseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

A big one given club control through 2023. I don't see a strong likelihood of that happening either right now or this winter.

Kristen

1:28

Is there still a market for Kela and Diekman with CLE now out of the picture?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Here's something important to remember: every contender has the bullpen among their areas of need. It may not be their #1 priority but You Can't Have Too Much Pitching is as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

James

1:29

How many games do you expect the Orioles to win now?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Our projections now have them finishing at 55-107, and it's gonna get worse. I'd say 50 to 52 wins.

Bort

1:31

Any chance of a Fowler/Chris Davis bad contract swap? Obviously the Cardinals would have to add a prospect or two.

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