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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/19/18

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Jay Jaffe

1:31

Fowler has full no-trade protection, and between what happened in Baltimore in the winter of 2015-2016 and where the Orioles are headed, I think he says Hell No to that one, and rightly so.

Lee

1:32

Devers for Syndergaard straight up. Realistic?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Nope

Sum

1:33

value of no-hitters caught in HOF voting? I'm a Red Sox homer and remember all the awesome non-counting-stat things that Varitek did, including catching 4 no-no's. but he'll never make it

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I think there's your answer. it's a neat bit of trivia that has no bearing on the major things a catcher needs to to do be HOFworthy.

Matt

1:33

I just took a look at Hamels #'s this year. While better than I expected, they're still...not good. And particularly not good for the Yanks. Running a high WHIP in spite of a .288 BABIP, 20% HR/FB rate...LHB are slugging lower than RHB against him, but higher OBP and AVG. If he comes to NY, my fellow Yankees fans who are much less rational than I are going to collectively poop their pants, aren't they?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Hamels has fallen a long way since being dealt to the Rangers in 2015. He's an expensive #4 now, I think, and he won't be helped by moving to another hitters' park.

Jkim

1:34

Isn't it incredible that the Mets are this bad? A team led by degrom syndergaard and conforto+ a breakout nimmo shouldnt be THIS bad right?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Conforto has been bad in the wake of the shoulder injury, the infield is about a worst-case scenario outside of Asdrubal's hitting and solid play from Frazier, and Cespedes has been injured for a good long time. that's a lot of bad luck, but the design was nothing to write home about either.

Scott

1:36

Is Zack Wheeler a reasonable target for the A's?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I think every team in the market for pitching will be kicking the tires on him. He won't come cheap but he's probably capable of being an upgrade at the back of most contenders' rotation (except the Astros and Dodgers, at least).

Justin

1:38

JA Happ has been real real bad lately. Just a blip or will some team (Yankees I bet) regret it?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

July has been unkind to him. I suspect it's a blip but at most he's got 2 starts to turn it around, or the Jays won't get a ton for him.

1:40

this fowler situation makes no sense. he's had 250 abs and been arguably the worst player in the NL and is complaining about "needing a chance." bader has been better significantly in every way and the team needs to win badly to gain spots in the standings. Im not saying DFA him, but he should be the 4th outfielder for sure. thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Some of it is certainly on Fowler, and I wonder if his wife's pregnancy has been a distraction, but Matheny didn't exactly foster a hospitable work atmosphere, and Moz only threw more gasoline on the fire. He homered on Sunday, the beginning of the post-Matheny era, and I have to think the Cardinals will give him a longer look in the hopes of getting the guy they'll be paying for through 2021 regardless. They can do that while still finding work for Bader, too, so long as they stop trying to force Jose Martinez into the OF picture.

Michael J

1:44

Toles, Joc, Puig. Which one gets moved now?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

Ask not for whom the bell Toles.

Mike

1:44

Hand seems to have gotten less than Miller got for fewer years of control, is that the name brand ? Or should Millers return be viewed in a vaccuum similar to Chapman?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

Brad Hand is not Andrew Miller, not close. Thanks to his high K%, Miller was putting up FIPs in the 1s and low 2s for 2 1/2 years before the trade, Hand is low 3s for the last 2 1/2 seasons.

Mr. Hand

1:46

You’re on dangerous ground, Mr. Jaffe... you’re causing a major disturbance on my time

Jay Jaffe

1:47

Regardless of how that film ages, Ray Walston will never be forgotten thanks to that role.

1:47

That's right, Emma is with The Athletic now! They're adding too rapidly to keep up with who's on their team.

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Emma moved from SI to the Athletic at almost exactly the time I joined the staff here, in mid-February, but since she's not writing, the move flew below the radar.

ralph

1:48

With the talks of a possible expansion team....which state is the most likely candidate?

Jay Jaffe

1:49

If it's not Montreal, I think Portland and Charlotte are the most likely destinations, though San Antonio or Austin might squeeze in there. Oregon, North Carolina, Texas then.

Ryan

1:50

With Utley retiring, does that turn his contract into a one year deal with an AAV of 2 million instead of a two year deal with an AAV of 1.5 million? Would be a shame for the Dodgers if that 500k difference ended up being decisive in whether they can stay under the cap.

Jay Jaffe

1:51

No. By officially retiring, he's essentially forfeiting that year's deal, but my guess is that the Dodgers rework it into a personal services contract of some sorts, which won't count towards their player payroll. Maybe it's just one year as a special assistant to the GM, or maybe it's part of a longer-term deal, but the Dodgers Love Them Some Chase Utley.

Kevin

1:53

Are you disappointed in Acuna offensively so far?

Jay Jaffe

1:54

He had a 110 wRC+ before the injury, but he's down to 99 now. So long as that's rust and not him playing at well below 100%, I'm not worried, but if I'm the Braves I'd make sure I know that's the case

Follow Up

1:54

Read an Athletic article the other day about Posey's impending (current?) decline years. It talked a lot about the intangible value he adds as an everyday catcher, game manager, etc. My question is this - does he have a chance at the HoF if he falls short of 2,000 hits?

Jay Jaffe

1:56

I think it's a tough uphill battle for anybody with less than 2000 hits, but a guy with 3 rings and an MVP award is in a better place than most. Still, he's gonna have to get a lot closer than where he is now, but I think it's more likely that his bat will play at 1B or, say, LF, than a worst-case Mauer-like scenario.

Wes

1:56

What's the sandwich-of-the-day today?

Jay Jaffe

1:56

Hanco's classic banh mi (ham, ground pork, pate). A frequent Seamless order for me!

LegalEagle

1:57

Over-under: Chase Utley will be a head coach on a MLB team within 5 years.

Jay Jaffe

1:57

This ain't football.

White Sox fan

1:57

Please tell me that Joakim Soria will bring back at least one decent prospect.

Jay Jaffe

1:57

yes, he will

OK folks, tons of great questions today and I wish I could stay longer but I am gassed and it's almost 2 PM. Thanks for stopping by, and I'll see you next week!

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