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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Good afternoon, folks!
12:01
It's been a few weeks since my last chat. I missed one because of vacation, another because of the All-Star game, and last week at this time, I was sweating bullets because my Mac Mini, which I bought in late 2018, finally bit the dust to the point that its indicator light was flashing a Morse code S-O-S.
12:03
Fortunately, I was prepared for this — had scoped out which model I was buying and was backing up my work like it's my religion (I use Time Machine for on-site and BackBlaze for off-site). So I was up and running within 27 hours and didn't miss a day of work. Anyway...
12:05
Today is D(backs) Day at FanGraphs, in that Michael Baumann and I have done a point/counterpoint regarding whether Arizona should sell or buy at the July 31 trade deadline. My take just went up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/point-the-diamondbacks-should-sell-at-the-..., Michael's will be along at 12:30, and David Laurila spoke to Merrill Kelly, one of their big trade targets, for another piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/merrill-kelly-is-a-trade-target-who-thrive...
Yesterday the D-backs popped up in my Worst Defenses Among Contenders roundup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-team-defenses-among-contenders-2...
12:06
And last week was my Replacement Level Killer series, which begins here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2025-replacement-level-killers-introdu... and covers 6 installments.
anyway, that's enough housekeeping, on with the show
Matt
12:06
Hey Jay, who’s the best SP you foresee being dealt at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I think it just might be Kelly, at least in terms of 2025 performance. Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara are more accomplished but both have been pretty bad this year. If the Royals decide to deal Seth Lugo, I'd probably put him ahead of Kelly, but I'm less sure they will trade him
Tom M
12:09
The Baseball world is going to be shocked at what the Pirates receive for Mitch Keller in a trade, right??  RIGHT!??
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
He'll fetch a decent return but the new guys will become Pirates and be part of an endless cycle of churning for the rest of Bob Nutting's tenure as owner. Enjoy Arby's!
Guest
12:10
Are you starting your Cooperstown notebook articles soon? I look forward to it every year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Because July is so jam-packed, with the All-Star stuff, the draft, and the Killers and Trade Value series, I've decided to push the Cooperstown Notebook series into August. Scheduling TBD because I have some vacation to work around.
Sodo Mojo
12:13
With so many contenders needing 3B help and Suarez's monster season is the price going to be much higher than your typical slugger rental.  Is it a mid top 100 prospect plus pieces?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Yeah i think there will be one clear centerpiece of the deal plus some secondary pieces
Joey Caltrain
12:14
Is it possible that there are more future Dominican-born Hall of Famers active in the MLB right now than the total in the hall (5, with Pujols upcoming)? Soto and J. Ramírez seem likely, Ketel Marte, Julio Rodríguez, and maybe Devers are real possibilities, and Tatis would be if not for PEDs. Then there's the really young guys like Elly de la Cruz and Junior Caminero. Emmanuel Clase still has a shot if everything goes well. I suppose a starter who ages really well (Framber Valdez, Pablo López, Luis Castillo, Sandy Alcantara) could theoretically be a possibility too. Just seems like with 2 locks and so many other possibilities, there's a real shot at >5.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I'll take the under on that count. yes on Soto and Jose Ramírez, but none of the other guys has really hit my Hall radar yet, by which i mean they haven't gotten to a 40-WAR seven-year peak. Three-quarters of the guys who get to that level eventually get in. Julio has the early start and the defensive metrics to buffer his offensive ups and downs, so if I had to pick one of those it'd be him, but Devers is weighed down by bad defense and a DH future, and Marte is 31 with only two 5-WAR seasons (plus a 4.9). It's also not the time to be optimistic about any starting pitcher when it comes to the Hall.
The Man With Three Names
12:18
I was looking at Eugenio Suarez's page today, and he has had a wRC+ of 153 over the past year. If you had told me a player like him, all power based production, would have been this productive in his 30s, I would have laughed. But it spurred me to check Nolan Arenado's production in his 30's, and Suarez has basically been just as productive as Arenado post-30 on a per season WAR basis. This is a convoluted set up to ask: Is Arenado in danger of not reaching the Hall of Fame standard?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Arenado is at 57.7career/44.2 peak/51.0 JAWS, 5.2 points short of the standard. None of that is going to be peak, so he needs about 5.2 WAR to get there. He's got 2 1/3 seasons remaining under contract but will still be only 36 when it ends; short version, i think it's going to be a bit of a grind, but the strong peak and the Gold Gloves have mostly gotten him there already
12:23
As for Suárez, what he's done over the past year has a lot to do with a change in his preparatory process, something I wrote about last September. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarezs-extended-hot-streak-contin...). It's a reminder that player development paths are more malleable than ever thanks to technology and a willingness to adapt. We've seen it all over the place with swing changes and pitch engineering; this is in that ballpark.
Snid
12:23
Dennis Santana   Will he close if he goes to NYY or PHI?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Color me skeptical, with Philly more likely than NYY, but the fact that this is even a valid question attests to the way that guys can still sort themselves out with a little help.
Your Name
12:25
How many exclusively 2 WAR seasons would a player have to put up for him to be a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
LOL let's do some basic algebra. Let's say 54.0 JAWS gets you into the Hall. Dude is going to have just 14.0 WAR for his peak, so he'll need 94.0 WAR for his career, which comes to 47 seasons of very average play.
you know what, if a guy can pull that off, from 18 to 65 or thereabouts, sure, I'll vote for him.
Sam
12:27
What do you think Preller goes nuts for Durran
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
I think the state of SD's farm system is such that getting Duran would be very hard unless A.J. can scare up some prospects via a different trade first. I wouldn't put it past him
Cargo
12:31
Who is the best player, post-WWII, to never make an All-Star team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I'm going to go with Tony Phillips, the proto-Zobrist. He racked up 50.9 WAR in his career without making a single team. Tim Salmon, who sometimes turns up as an answer to this based on his Rookie of the Year award and long career, and Kirk Gibson, a former MVP and postseason hero, aren't within 10 WAR of that, and pitchers Tom Candiotti and Danny Darwin, the WAR leaders in that category, are about 8-10 WAR away.
AL Central Casting
12:34
If a situation arose - God forbid - where an umpire was proven to have taken a bribe and favored an outcome in a specific game, what do you think MLB would do about the results of that game? Would it stand or be nullified? Replayed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Yeah i think MLB would have to nullify the result and replay the game to make a big statement.
Mike
12:34
With ownership in flux, and how they've acted the last few deadlines, would you agree that is most likely the Twins do nothing (maybe one small trade) at the deadline? Not even trade off their expiring deals? thanks,
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I think they sell. This is not a good team; they made my Killers list at 5 positions and their defense was the worst of any contender
Guest
12:36
when will there be day/night splits on player profiles?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I haven't heard of any plans to add them to the static Splits pages but you can get them via the Splits Tool pages (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA...) pull down on the Time Filter menu
12:38
Hope that helps!
12:39
Michael Baumann's counterpoint to my Diamondbacks piece is up now https://blogs.fangraphs.com/counterpoint-dont-listen-to-jay-the-diamon...
Brew Crew Due
12:39
Is Milwaukee legit? Or just riding a wave? Thinking of when the Twins got hot earlier this year and are now looking towards the Trade Deadline as sellers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
I believe Baumann is next turning his attention to the Brewers, so stay tuned, but FWIW I do believe they're for real. They always seem to pull the rabbit out of the hat and field a contender. Six playoff appearances and an 86-win miss in the last 7 years!
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