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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/25
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Jackson
12:41
Is this the year the Phillies fix their OF? Castellanos is set in RF, but CF & LF have been black holes (yes, Marsh is a black hole)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I don't see how they can stay atop the NL East without doing so. They made the Killers list in all 3 spots with Kepler and Marsh/Rojas both really struggling
HJ
12:43
Good afternoon, Jay! Was wondering your thoughts on a few young pitchers for the second half. Do you feel any of Cam Schlittler, Zebby Matthews or Troy Melton have the skills to perform well enough to open eyes over the rest of the season? Thanks a lot!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
That's a question for Eric Longenhagen, not me, particularly as the last two are such recent arrivals I haven't even seen them. I will note that Melton is the only Top 100 prospect of the three,
Jeremy
12:44
Should the Phillies trade for Eugenio Suarez, move Bohm to 1B once he's healthy, move Harper back to RF, and kick one of their corner outfielders to the bench?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
That's not the worst plan, but I think a lot of it depends on whether Harper's wrist inflammation (right/throwing arm) will affect his outfield play. My hunch is that it will, which would scrub the idea.
Matt VW
12:46
Because I watch them everyday, I guess I'm surprised the Red Sox defense rates out as well as it does. Is this two transcendent defenders lifting an otherwise suspect squad, or is the eye test missing a more pervasive competence?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Maybe the latter? Rafaela, Abreu, and Narvaez are all at least +10 in DRS and +6 in FRV, and they have three more guys (including recent arrival Roman Anthony) in the 4-6 range in DRS with a positive FRV.
J
12:49
The Nats have a gaping hole at catcher, I was thinking a smart long term move would be to maybe trade gore or something and get dalton rushing in return from the dodgers + more prospects. Do you eee this type of trade as a possibility, or maybe for Ford in Seattle who’s blocked
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I think the Dodgers would leap at the chance for such a trade before whoever is acting as Washington's GM hangs up the phone, which is to say that it's not one I would make if I'm the Nationals
12:51
The Nats do need a catcher but trading their best starter isn't the way to get it.
Bob
12:52
Looking at the Mets roster, shouldn’t they be starting McNeil in CF, Baty at 2B, Mauricio at 3B, and Vientos at DH on a daily basis? Baty is having a 2-3 WAR season so should be playing regularly.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Baty has just a 70 wRC+ against lefties, which is part of what requires them to juggle their lineup
12:54
and while McNeil's metrics in CF have been fine so far (149 innings), I'm not sure how well that will hold up over a larger sample; I don't know if he's being used there more when groundballers are on the mound, etc.
Joey Caltrain
12:54
How similar do you think your trade value list would be to Ben's? Which Fangraphs writer do you think would have the most unique list?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Man, the Trade Value stuff just makes my head spin a bit. I understand it conceptually and think Ben does a great job; when I try to build my own list, I get lost pretty quickly because every single comparison seems like apples vs. oranges.
when we circulate these lists internally early in the process I mostly just nod my head and find 1-2 nits to pick out of 50 players
bcraw35
12:56
You kind of answered this earlier with the best SP traded, but any shot Joe Ryan gets dealt? He's also a Bay Area native, and the Giants may need another starter with Birdsong and Verlander's struggles. What would it take for SF to land Ryan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I hadn't seriously considered the thought of the Twins trading Ryan, who has two more years of control and is outpitching Kelly and Lugo. I think he'd take a big haul to get, but for as tempting as that is I don't see how the Twins can expect to bounce back quickly by trading their best pitcher while he's still affordable.
Matt VW
12:58
The Rays are only 1.5 games out of a wild card, and their remaining strength of schedule isn't terrible, but they're on the road a ton (37 of their remaining 61). How much of a factor is this in estimating their postseason chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
It's baked into the Playoff Odds.
12:59
To what extent exactly, I can't say. Ben or Dan is a better person to ask.
Brandon Marsh
12:59
What do you think the biggest blockbuster this trade deadline could possibly have? Like the top .1 percentile trade where everyone loses their mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
A Duran trade, particularly given the Red Sox's surge into a Wild Card spot, would blow up the internet on the heels of the Devers trade.
I guess a Bregman trade would as well, given the sequence of events that it triggered. Boston is such a fishbowl that there'd be no end of the coverage.
bdubs
1:01
Is David Robertson likely to be yet another "floater" in Philly or is he being primed to be their eventual closer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
If he pitches as well as he did last year, i think he'll be considered to close but color me skeptical about a 40-year-old guy who's sat out 2/3 of a season. I'd bet you're looking at a 20-25% chance of him being good enough for that role given the layoff.
ransofast
1:02
Has the hall of fame ever done 'road shows'? they have so much cool history in storage, I feel like pop-ups in MLB cities (maybe as we get into spring training or opening day) where they can highlight all the cool stuff this game has produced would be super fun. It would also make Cooperstown more approachable for those that cant make it to New York.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Circa 2004, there was a Baseball As America exhibit of Hall artifacts that toured the country; meanwhile, the museum was being remodeled. I caught the show at the American Museum of Natural History in NYC, and again at the Smithsonian in DC with Christina Kahrl and a few baseball blogger pals — we all went down to stay at her place for the weekend. I think it was right at the tail end of the 2004 regular season, with Steve Finley's walk-off homer clinching a playoff spot for the Dodgers, and the Cubs' grisly collapse hitting some of us harder than others.
Justin
1:06
No real question just wanted to state how much more fun baseball is when Acuña is healthy and hitting
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Agreed, and let me add that it was hot garbage the other night when the YES Network's Michael Kay and Joe Girardi complained he wasn't running hard on the most routine groundballs. Y'all know I have little patience for that bullshit.
Re: DBacks Counterpoint
1:07
Lol Baumann is worth every penny FanGraphs pays just for the headlines alone (also a great writer, too, just wanted to give that shout out)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
He's great, and the headline cracked me up. I could have snuck in a dig at him in my piece (it would have been questionable to reciprocate a pending piece in the headline) but I was happy enough playing the straight man this time around.

Dude better sleep with one eye open though.
Smokin' Jim Leyland
1:08
This might be a bit premature still...but apparently Tarik Skubal was the same age as former Tiger Max Scherzer when reaching his 50th career win. What are the chances that Skubal has a similar trajectory from here and ends up in Cooperstown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I have little question that Skubal has the stuff to do it. The Several Hundred Million Dollar question comes down to whether he can stay healthy.
Sam
1:09
Assuming a player with perfect consistency (same WAR every year), what's the minimum number of WAR/season they would need to average for you to believe they warranted an HOF plaque?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
10 seasons at 5.0 WAR would almost certainly get my vote, even with a low-ish peak of 35.0.
Cody S
1:10
Do you think Minnesota will trade a player as significant as Joe Ryan or Jhoan Durán? Or will it be mostly the rentals like Castro, Bader, and Coulombe?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
See above regarding Ryan, but I'd bet Durán gets traded. Relievers can go south so quickly that you might as well cash them in when they're hot and you're out of it.
E
1:13
Of the shortstops in this generation it feels like Lindor has pulled away and seems likely to have had the best career. Who would you rank as second best?
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